OK, good evening everybody.
It's Friday evening.
It's June, the third.
This is your evening tropical update
and we have one storm in mind.
It's PTC number one PTC
potential tropical cyclone.
It means that the system out
there still has not become a
official tropical depression or
tropical storm with the name,
but it might and it's getting close
to land and so this allows the
Hurricane Center to go ahead and
begin issuing all the watches and
warnings in the forecast cone so
everybody can plan for the potential
for a real tropical system coming in now.
The information we'll be looking at
is from the intermediate advisory
7:00 PM Central time Friday evening.
The next full advisory new full forecast
Cone update comes at 10:00 o'clock.
Here are all the advisories as
they stand right now and South
Florida is under a tropical storm.
Warning you're getting tropical
storm conditions on the coast,
especially southern coast.
Right now we're gonna look at
the winds here in just a minute.
West side of Cuba's got a
tropical storm warning as well.
So even though the storm itself is not
a tropical depression or tropical storm.
With some of the heavier downpours
coming into South Florida right now,
Key West, Key Largo,
Miami Marco Island up to Fort Myers?
You're getting wind gusts
that exceed 40 miles an hour,
and so those are tropical storm force gusts,
and thus the tropical storm
conditions expected.
And they're happening right now.
And this is all happening way ahead
of what is the center of this thing,
which is really an open swirl.
That's the center of potential
tropical cyclone number one.
It is completely removed and
displaced from all the deep.
Convection,
and that is because the upper
level winds are blowing it apart.
Surface winds.
Yeah, we've got a surface swirl out here.
Again, this is at the 7:00 O'clock Advisory,
1003 millibars moving northeast
at 740 mile an hour.
Sustained winds in parts of this circulation,
but it is completely exposed.
There's no deep convection near the center.
It's all being blown off to the east.
This is one of these lopsided
sheared systems,
so it's not going to be a big wind threat.
Not going to be a big storm surge.
Threat, but it will be a heavy rain threat.
These are notorious for dumping a
whole lot of rain forecast track
from the Hurricane Center.
Takes it into the southern portion
of Florida South of Fort Myers.
They're still forecasting this
to become a 45 mile an hour.
Tropical Storm remains to be
seen if it does that.
Regardless,
the point is moot.
It's going to be a rainmaker as
it crosses Saturday.
That's Saturday afternoon and
then by Saturday evening it's gone
and going into Sunday, Monday,
Tuesday, Wednesday.
It kicks itself out in the open
Atlantic and will be done with it.
Although it looks like it is going to skirt.
By Bermuda,
Bermuda.
You may have a wind and rain
threat as we head into Sunday night
and Monday morning and Monday
afternoon of next week for Bermuda.
Most of this misses the Bahamas but Bahamas.
You're going to get some of the
rain out of this, especially the
northern island of the Bahamas.
Here's the way it looks on our future track.
Our radar forecast,
the worst of it is happening now and
will continue to happen overnight
into 6:00 AM Saturday morning with all
the heavy rain and what wind there
is out ahead of the surface low.
What there is of a surface.
Well and then by noon the center of the
storm is moving inland to Southwest Florida,
but the bulk of the rain still
displaced way off to the north and east.
That's noon on Saturday.
And then we get into the afternoon and
evening and going into Sunday morning.
It all exits rain totals by that time,
however, could be you know when
that pink and white area?
That's 12 fourteen,
16 inches possible?
Otherwise,
you're looking at a solid 456 inches across
a big swath between Fort Myers and Miami.
So expect many high water spots
and just a good time to stay off
the roads and stay in and let it
be a rainy night and a rainy day
without you on the roads and let
it go on through and be safe.
As far as the winds here, the wind forecast.
Numbers by the time we get into 5:00
AM Saturday morning could have gusts.
These are potential gusts to 53.
Key West to 47 in Miami.
Fort Lauderdale to 38. Fort Myers to 18.
As the storm continues to advance going
into the middle of the morning on Saturday.
Miami models say you could see
a wind gust of 63.
Absolutely you could.
You'll be on the stronger side
of a developing system and with
heavy rain bands they transport the
stronger winds that are above the
surface down to the surface.
So if you get a heavy rain band,
you absolutely could see a gust
to 4050 or 60 miles an hour.
It won't be sustained,
it'll be a gust by 4:00 o'clock
Saturday afternoon,
the storms pushing across the
strongest winds are moving out to
the Bahamas and out of the open
waters of the Atlantic Ocean and
then off it goes by 8:00 PM,
Saturday evening.
That's where we stand with the
system right now a real rain maker
and a little bit windy on the coast.
Be careful out there.
Questions, comments, leave them.
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hit me up on social if you'd like.
We'll see you tomorrow for the next update.