BILL KARINS. >> DEFINITELY.
>> DEFINITELY. >> THANK YOU.
>>> ALL RIGHT.
HEY, CHRIS MATTHEWS, I WANT TO
JUST ASK YOU A GENERAL QUESTION
ABOUT WHERE WE ARE PLIT KREEOLIT
RIGHT NOW.
RIGHT NOW. FOR A LOT OF PEOPLE THEIR
DEFINING ELECTION WAS THE
ELECTION OF JFK IN 1960.
FOR ME, FOR A LOT OF DIFFERENT
REASONS, IT WAS REAGAN IN 1980.
I ALWAYS REMEMBER ON THE FRIDAY
BEFORE IT WAS A TOSS-UP, IT WAS
GOING TO BE VERY CLOSE.
WE’RE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT
EXACTLY WHAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN
THIS FALL.
THIS FALL. YOU HAVE A SERIES OF POLLS OUT
SHOWING DONALD TRUMP IN THE MID
30s, MITCH McCONNELL IS NOW
TALKING ABOUT A KNIFE FIGHT IN
THE SENATE.
THE SENATE. YOU NEVER REALLY KNOW WHICH WAY
THESE THINGS ARE GOING, BUT I
WAS JUST CURIOUS WHEN YOU WERE
WITH TIP O’NEAL IN 1980 DID YOU
SEE IT COMING?
DOES IT FEEL LIKE A SIMILAR WAVE
THIS YEAR OR IS IT JUST TOO
EARLY TO TELL?
>> WELL, I REALLY WAS WITH HIM
FROM ’81 ON SO ’81 HAD ALREADY
HAPPENED, BUT ’82 WAS THE ONE I
WORKED ON AND WE PICKED UP 26
SEATS AND THAT FELT LIKE A
PRETTY GOOD WAVE BECAUSE THE
SOCIAL SECURITY AND THE
RECESSION COMING ON AND I THINK
THE SPEAKER DID A HELL OF A JOB
OF RAISING THOSE ISSUES.
I THINK THIS IS STRONGER.
I THINK IT’S STRONGER THAN 26, I
THINK IT’S A REAL WAVE,
SOMETHING LIKE 94, 74.
I THINK THE DEMOCRATS HAVE
PICKED UP 30 TO 40 SEATS IN THE
HOUSE AND THE SENATE CAN WOBBLY
RIGHT NOW, IT’S IN OUR COUNTRY
ALL OVER THE COUNTRY IT LOOKS
LIKE THESE RACES ARE COMING DOWN
TO -- I THINK DONNELLY WILL WIN
IN INDIANA, I THINK MANCHIN IS
GOING TO WIN NOW, I THINK
THERE’S SOME SAFETY FOR SOME OF
THESE GUYS, BUT INGMAR INOF
ERROR IS LIKE -- REMEMBER JUST
AS RECENTLY AS ’16 WE LOOKED AT
ALL THOSE RACES IN PENNSYLVANIA
AND EVERYBODY SAID, OH, EDDIE
RENT DELL SAID WE WILL WIN BY
THREE.
THREE. THAT’S MARGIN OF ERROR.
WHEN YOU START TALKING ABOUT TWO
OR THREE POINTS YOU DON’T KNOW
WHAT YOU’RE TALKING ABOUT.
IT’S TOO HARD TO PICK.
THIS ELECTION WILL BE HARD TO
PICK BUT I DO THINK THERE IS A
WAVE AGAINST THE PRESIDENT, I
THINK THIS LAST WEEK OR TWO HAVE
BEEN TERRIBLE FOR HIM, I LOOKED
AT THE NUMBERS DROPPING DOWN TO
THE LOW 30s FOR HIM IN APPROVAL.
THESE ELECTIONS AS YOU KNOW,
JOE, CHANGE HISTORY FOR 30
YEARS.
YEARS. PEOPLE WILL GET ELECTED THIS
NOVEMBER THAT WOULD HAVE NEVER
HAD A SHOT, PEOPLE LIKE -- TOM
FOLEY OUT IN EASTERN WASHINGTON
STATE WAS ELECTED ON A FLUKE, HE
FILED THE LAST DAY, HE GOT INTO
THE CONGRESS, HE SERVED FOR 30
YEARS, HE BECAME SPEAKER OF THE
HOUSE UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE CAME
ALONG IN ’94.
IT HAPPENS.
IT HAPPENS. JIM HOWARD A HIGH SCHOOL TEACHER
IN NEW JERSEY GOT ELECTED FOR
HIS WHOLE LIFE BECAUSE OF ONE OF
THESE WAVES.
THESE WAVES. SO I THINK YOU’RE GOING -- AND
IF BETO WINS DOWN THERE HE WILL
BE A MAJOR NATIONAL FIGURE
PRETTY QUICKLY.
PRETTY QUICKLY. >> OH, MY GOSH.
>> A LOT OF THESE PEOPLE YOU
WILL SEE WHOLE CAREERS MADE OR
LOST AND WOMEN RUNNING, MINORITY
WOMEN, WOMEN OF COLOR, I THINK
THE FACT THERE ARE SO MANY
RUNNING THERE ARE GOING TO BE SO
MANY THAT WIN AND THEY WILL BE
THERE THEIR WHOLE LIVES.
I THINK THIS ELECTION IS NOT
JUST A ONE-OFF.
I THINK THIS ELECTION WILL BE
VERY BIG FOR THE DEMOCRATS.
THEY MIGHT JUST WIN THE SENATE.
IT’S REALLY GOING TO BE POWERFUL
STUFF.
STUFF. >> BY THE WAY, IF YOU SEE BETO
WIN IN ’18 YOU WILL PROBABLY SEE
HIM ON A TICKET IN ’20 AS WELL.
>> I AGREE.
>> I WANT TO ASK YOU THIS
QUESTION I’VE BEEN ASKING PEOPLE
THE PAST FEW DAYS, DONALD TRUMP
WAS SITTING AT 44, 45% EARLY
SPRING AND NOW HE’S DROPPED BACK
DOWN INTO THE 30s.
I KNOW THERE ARE A LOT OF
REASONS, MAYBE CHILD SEPARATION,
MAYBE HELSINKI, I’M JUST
CURIOUS, WHY DO YOU THINK THE
PRESIDENT WAS MOVING INTO
TERRITORY WHERE HE HAD SOME OF
HIS HIGHER APPROVAL RATINGS
SINCE BECOMING A POLITICIAN JUST
SIX MONTHS AGO AND NOW HE’S BACK
TO THE 30s?
>> THE ECONOMICS, HE’S BATTLING
HIS OWN GOOD ECONOMIC NUMBERS.
HE HAS GREAT NUMBERS.
WHO WOULDN’T BE BRAGGING ABOUT
THESE UNEMPLOYMENT RATES DOWN
WELL BELOW 4 AND YOU HAVE A
MARKET THAT’S BOOMING BACK UP
THERE TO 2600 -- 26,000.
YOU HAVE GREAT ECONOMIC NUMBERS.
IT’S HIM.
IT’S HIM. ESPECIALLY DURING THIS TIME
WE’RE HONORING -- REMEMBERING --
MARKING, I GUESS, 9/11.
THE GREAT THING ABOUT 9/11 AND
THERE WAS ONE GREAT THING ABOUT
ALL THAT HORROR, IN THE WEEKS
THEREAFTER YOU SAW A UNITY IN
THIS COUNTRY WE HAD NEVER FELT
SINCE MAYBE WORLD WAR II.
>> CORRECT.
>> CORRECT. >> A TREMENDOUS -- THE YUPPIES
AT THEIR SIDEWALK CAFES WERE
CHEERING THE FIREFIGHTERS GOING
BY ON THEIR ENGINES.
THE CLASS DIFFERENCES WERE
RESOLVED FOR A WHILE.
THERE WAS A TREMENDOUS LOOKING
OUT FOR THE FIRST RESPONDERS IN
A WAY THAT WAS WONDERFUL.
PEOPLE WERE LOOKING -- PEOPLE --
YOU KNOW, KIDS WHEN THEY GROW UP
THEY WANT TO BE NURSES AND THEY
WANT TO BE FIREFIGHTERS.
THAT’S WHAT YOU WANT TO BE WHEN
YOU’RE FIVE OR SEVEN YEARS OLD.
YOU NATURALLY HAVE SORT OF A
HEROIC INSTINCT.
HEROIC INSTINCT. YOU WANT TO BE A HERO TO PEOPLE,
YOU WANT TO BE THE GOOD GUY OR
GOOD WOMAN.
GOOD WOMAN. I THINK 9/11 BROUGHT THAT
INSTINCT OF KIDS OUT IN US.
I SPOKE AT THE FRIENDLY SONS
THAT SPRING AND ALL I HAD TO DO
WAS TALK ABOUT THE IRISH
TRADITION OF FIREFIGHTING IN NEW
YORK CITY AND I JUST STARTED
LISTING NAMES, YOU KNOW, MOST OF
THE GUYS THAT GOT KILLED GOING
UP THOSE STAIRS WERE IRISH
BECAUSE OF THOSE LONG GENERATION
AFTER GENERATION TRADITIONS IN
NEW YORK CITY OF ALWAYS BEING A
FIREFIGHTER.
FIREFIGHTER. OF COURSE, WE HAD HISPANIC GUYS
AND AFRICAN-AMERICAN PEOPLE,
TOO, BUT THERE WAS A TREMENDOUS
FEEL ABOUT THE WORKING CLASS AND
HOW IMPORTANT THEY ARE IN A BIG
CITY LIKE NEW YORK.
THE WORKING CLASS ARE THE ONES
THAT SAVE YOU WHEN YOU ARE IN
TROUBLE.
TROUBLE. THEY ARE THE COPS THAT COME, THE
EMERGENCY WORKERS, THEY ARE THE
WORKING GUYS AND WOMEN WHO COME
TO SAVE YOU WHEN YOU’RE SCARED
TO DEATH YOU’RE GOING TO DIE.
THEY ARE THE ONES -- WHEN YOU
ARE AUPPY AND MAKE A LOT OF
MONEY AND MASTER OF THE UNIVERSE
YOU FORGET ABOUT THOSE PEOPLE
AND YOU LOOK DOWN ON THEM.
WELL, YOU CAN’T BECAUSE IN THE
END THEY ARE THE ONES THAT SAVE
YOU AND I THINK THAT WAS THE
WONDERFUL THING ABOUT 9/11 AND
AFTERWARDS PEOPLE SAID, DO YOU
KNOW WHAT, THEY ARE THE GOOD
GUYS.
GUYS. I FELT THAT.
>> JEFFREY GOLDBERG, I’M CURIOUS
YOUR THOUGHTS ON, AGAIN, DONALD
TRUMP’S FALL FROM 44, 45% TO 35,
36%.
36%. I KNOW FOR A LOT OF US AND I
WILL JUST SPEAK FOR MYSELF IN
THE MEDIA, IT ALL SEEMS BAD.
THERE’S AN OUTRAGEOUS STATEMENT
EVERY DAY, THERE IS -- THERE IS
A BREACHING OF A CONSTITUTIONAL
NORM EVERY DAY.
>> RIGHT.
>> RIGHT. >> SO IT’S TOUGHER FOR ME TO
FIGURE OUT WHY HE WOULD BE AT 44
OR 45% AFTER CHARLOTTESVILLE,
AFTER RETWEETING NEO NAZI
TWEETS, BUT SOMETHING HAS
HAPPENED WITH INDEPENDENTS
ESPECIALLY.
ESPECIALLY. ANY GUESS WHAT THAT MAY HAVE
BEEN OVER THE PAST SIX MONTHS?
>> YEAH, YOU KNOW, I’VE THOUGHT
ABOUT THIS A LOT.
REMEMBER WHEN YOUR KIDS ARE
LITTLE AND YOU TAKE THEM TO THE
CIRCUS AND THE CIRCUS IS FUN FOR
TWO OR THREE HOURS, BUT IMAGINE
HAVING TO SIT THROUGH THE CIRCUS
FOR 36 OR 48 HOURS STRAIGHT,
RIGHT, BOMBARDED WITH THE NOISE
AND NONSENSE OF A CIRCUS.
I THINK PEOPLE ARE BECOMING
INORD TO THE DRAMA, THEY’RE
BECOMING TIRED OF THE EXCESS
DRAMA AND I THINK, YOU KNOW, THE
SHOW -- THE SHOW IS MAYBE MOVING
PAST ITS SELL BY DATE.
I MEAN, THE CORE IS GOING TO
STAY THE CORE, BUT THE CORE
SEEMS TO SHRINK A LITTLE BIT
AND, YOU KNOW, THE BEST THING
THAT DONALD TRUMP OBVIOUSLY
COULD DO FOR REPUBLICANS RUNNING
RIGHT NOW IS STOP TWEETING VERY
STRANGE TWEETS ABOUT THE VARIOUS
INVESTIGATIONS AND ABOUT HILLARY
CLINTON AND BE -- TO BORROW A
TERM THAT HAS -- THAT HE’S
EMPLOYED -- BE A LITTLE BIT MORE
PRESIDENTIAL.
PRESIDENTIAL. I THINK JUST A LITTLE BIT OF
QUIET MIGHT ACTUALLY HELP.
>> AND THAT’S OF COURSE WHAT
GARY COHEN WAS TRYING TO TELL
HIM TO DO.
WILLIE, OF COURSE, AS YOU KNOW
MOST OF MY POLITICAL THEORIES GO
BACK TO JOHNNY CARSON.
CARSON WHO OF COURSE SAID YOU
WIN IN CENTRAL TIME ZONE, BUT
ALSO CARSON UNDERSTOOD HE WENT
INTO PEOPLE’S BEDROOMS EVERY
NIGHT AND IF HE WAS TOO SHRILL,
IF HE HAD AN EDGE AT SOME POINT
THEY WOULD JUST BECOME
EXHAUSTED.
EXHAUSTED. I’VE SEEN THAT WITH PRESIDENTS,
TOO.
TOO. EVERY PRESIDENT HAS A SELL BY
DATE, BUT WE’LL TELL YOU A LOT
OF MY FRIENDS IN PENSACOLA THAT
STILL WOULD VOTE FOR DONALD
TRUMP TOMORROW DO SAY THEY JUST
DON’T WANT TO TALK ABOUT HIM
ANYMORE.
ANYMORE. THEY’RE JUST EXHAUSTED BY IT
ALL.
ALL. I WONDER IF JEFFREY IS NOT RIGHT
THAT INDEPENDENTS PERHAPS WHO
DON’T FEEL AN UNDYING LOYALTY TO
DONALD TRUMP AND REPUBLICANISM
MIGHT JUST SAY, ENOUGH.
NO MAS.
NO MAS. I CAN’T TAKE THE MADNESS
ANYMORE.
ANYMORE. >> THERE ARE PLENTY OF
REPUBLICANS YOU KNOW WE HAVE
TALKED TO A LOT OF THE SAME
PEOPLE OR PEOPLE YOU TALKED TO
ON THE STREET WHO VOTED FOR
DONALD TRUMP BECAUSE HE WAS
CHANGE, HE WAS GOING TO SHAKE IT
UP, BECAUSE THEY DIDN’T LIKE
HILLARY CLINTON, BUT IF YOU LOOK
IN THOSE NUMBERS FROM THE CNN
POLL THAT WE HAD YESTERDAY AMONG
INDEPENDENTS HE HAS LOST 33% OF
INDEPENDENTS IN A MONTH.
IS.
IS. >> WOW.
>> WOW. >> HE WAS AT 47 AND HE IS DOWN
TO 31.
TO 31. IF YOUR THEORY IS TRUE, IF
DEMOCRATS HAVE A WAVE AND THEY
TAKE THE HOUSE AND MAYBE EVEN
THE SENATE, IF THIS IS THE
CULTURE WE HAVE RIGHT NOW
POLITICALLY WITH DONALD TRUMP
OWNING WASHINGTON, HE’S GOT THE
HOUSE, HE’S GOT THE SENATE, WHAT
DOES WASHINGTON LOOK LIKE WHEN
HE’S GOT AN ADVERSARIAL HOUSE OR
MAYBE AN ADVERSARIAL SENATE?
>> AS RICHARD NIXON DISCOVERED
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT WHEN
HE WON REELECTION WITH ALMOST
EVERY STATE, HE HAD LOST THE
SUBPOENA POWER AGAIN.
I THINK HE SAID IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE NIGHT WE LOST IT AGAIN.
HE KNEW WHAT WAS COMING.
THE SUBPOENA POWER NEEDS THAT
JERRY NADLER CAN SPEND MONTHS OF
’19 GETTING READY FOR SOMETHING,
WHETHER IT’S IMPEACHMENT OR NOT,
BUT IT’S CERTAINLY NOT GOING TO
BE PLEASANT FOR THE PRESIDENT.
ALL THOSE COMMITTEE CHAIRS ON
BOTH SIDES OF THE HILL WILL HAVE
SUBPOENA POWER AND THEY’RE GOING
TO USE IT.
YOU CAN SEE WHAT HAPPENED IN THE
HEARINGS WITH BRETT KAVANAUGH
WITH CORY BOOKER AND KAMALA
HARRIS’ PERFORMANCE.
HARRIS’ PERFORMANCE. THEY ARE RARING TO GO, THEY
CAN’T WAIT TO GET THE SUBPOENA
POWER AND I THINK THEY’RE GOING
TO PLAY IT.
IT DOESN’T NECESSARILY END UP
WELL.
WELL. WE SAW BACK IN THE 80th CONGRESS
BACK AFTER -- AFTER REPUBLICANS
CAME INTO POWER BACK IN ’46 AND
THEY BLEW IT BECAUSE ALL THEY
DID WAS HOLD HEARINGS, BUT I
THINK THIS TIME IT’S DIFFERENT.
I THINK PEOPLE WANT TO HAVE SOME
HEARINGS, THEY WANT SOME CONTROL
ON TRUMP AND ONE THING THAT’S
REALLY CHANGED, THE SUBURBS.
JOE, WHERE I GREW UP RIGHT ON
THE PHILADELPHIA EDGE, THOSE --
CHESTER, DELAWARE, MONTGOMERY,
EVEN UP IN THE SWING PART OF THE
STATE, THEY’RE GOING TO VOTE
FOR -- ALLENTOWN, LEHIGH VALLEY,
THEY’RE GOING TO VOTE DEMOCRAT
FOR THOSE WOMEN CANDIDATES, I
THINK ALL FOUR WIN.
I THINK THE WHOLE STRUCTURE OF
THE EAST COAST -- WHAT HAPPENS
IS I THINK TWO MONTHS FROM NOW
PEOPLE ARE GOING TO VOTE THE WAY
WE ALL THOUGHT THEY WERE GOING
TO VOTE IN ’16 FOR HILLARY, BUT
THERE WILL BE NO HILLARY FACTOR,
IT WILL JUST BE YOU DON’T LIKE
TRUMP.
TRUMP. I THINK THAT’S THE BIG
CHALLENGE.
CHALLENGE. OUR FAMILY WAS 3-2 OF BROTHERS,
3-2 TRUMP, THIS TIME IT’S GOING
TO BE 2-3 AGAINST TRUMP.
SO I THINK ONE OF MY BROTHERS
JUST SWITCHED.
JUST SWITCHED. AND HE LIVES IN BUCKS COUNTY.
I TELL YOU I THINK THE SUBURBS
ARE GOING TO VOTE THE WAY THEY
DID -- THEY WERE SUPPOSED TO
VOTE LAST TIME WHICH WAS
ANTI-TRUMP, BUT THERE WILL BE NO
HILLARY FACTOR TO DISTURB THAT