Something's rotten in Pakistan.
After former Prime Minister Imran Khan's
arrest, the country erupted.
Pakistani police responded by arresting
thousands of protesters,
often violently.
They also conducted a widespread crackdown on Khan's party
by arresting its leaders, including these three former
cabinet-level officials, and even workers down at the local level.
Journalists and commentators were also arrested.
And it's not just police.
The Pakistan Telecommunications Authority restricted social media
and internet access.
But why is this turmoil happening?
And what are the deeper forces at play
in the confrontation between Khan,
the most popular politician in Pakistan, and the country's political establishment?
Often labeled as a populist, Imran Khan served as Pakistan's
prime minister from 2018 until he was ousted from power
by parliament in a 2022 no-confidence vote.
But even out of office, polls say he remains the most popular politician
in the country.
To understand why, you need to understand
how Pakistan works.
Ever since Pakistan's founding in 1947,
power has mostly been shared
between three entities.
The first two are the country's
biggest political parties,
Pakistan People's Party, or PPP,
and Pakistan Muslim League - Nawaz,
or PML-N.
Both have a long history of political dynasties, and yes,
several corruption scandals over the years.
For example, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was jailed over corruption.
He's also the brother of current Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
Corruption allegations also surrounded
the first female prime minister of Pakistan,
Benazir Bhutto,
who was assassinated in 2007.
Her former husband, Asif Ali Zardari,
faced corruption charges as well, before eventually becoming president.
This corruption, by the way, is endemic throughout the political system,
appearing across most other parties, as well.
The third entity is arguably the most powerful institution in Pakistan:
the military.
For roughly half of the 75 years that Pakistan has existed,
the country has lived
under direct military rule.
Today, Pakistan isn't directly ruled by the military.
But the country is still often considered a “hybrid regime.”
A hybrid regime is a political system
that combines democratic
and authoritarian elements.
For Pakistan,
that means even when a democratically
elected government is in office,
the country's military continues
to call the shots behind the scenes.
It was during this pingpong between the military
and political dynasties
that Khan entered the political scene.
He had already become a national hero after leading his team to Pakistan's first,
and as of 2023, only cricket World Cup win.
Pakistan wins the World Cup.
A magnificent performance in front of 87,000 people.
In 1996, he co-founded Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf,
or PTI for short.
The party campaigned on anti-corruption policies and transforming Pakistan's
welfare state.
It might be that we might fight elections and eventually
go through that way.
You know, form a political party, fight elections,
become a prime minister.
At the time, Western observers were skeptical
of his party's potential.
Imran Khan may be a sporting superstar, but he's a political novice.
Khan built his political base over the following decades
and then struck when Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was disqualified
from holding office after being named in the Panama Papers scandal.
Then in 2018, Khan and PTI won the election,
breaking PPP and PML-N's decades-long duopoly.
Khan's win was largely driven by young voters
who were frustrated by corruption and dwindling opportunities in Pakistan
and wanted to reject the political status quo.
But it's also been widely speculated that in a country where pretty much nothing
really happens without the consent of the military or intelligence agencies,
Imran Khan had to receive their blessings in order to win.
Some accused PTI of pre-election manipulation,
like alleged backroom deals
with politicians from PML-N
to get them to either switch parties
to PTI or go independent.
Opposition parties also claimed the vote was rigged,
saying votes were either coming in too slowly
or that there were irregularities in counting.
Khan denied any rigging and slow vote counts were ultimately blamed
on the election commission.
In office, Khan leaned more into the religious
and nationalist undertones of his messaging.
But Khan did keep his promise to bolster
Pakistan's welfare state.
During his tenure, he launched a health card scheme that
provides medical treatment to Pakistani families.
He also took the climate crisis seriously,
advocating for a cleaner environment and launching the largest tree
planting drive in the country's history.
So where did it all go wrong?
Khan faced multiple crises with fluctuating public support:
a struggling economy,
conflict in Kashmir,
heightening tensions with neighboring India,
and most of all,
COVID-19.
But the most common answer is thought to be this:
Khan and the military started butting heads.
Initially, Khan had signaled good relations with the military
and often refused to criticize the institution altogether.
But cracks soon started showing.
Khan and the military clashed in particular
when it came to foreign policy.
He had long been critical of the United States
and its role in both Pakistan and the surrounding region.
All these operations make no sense.
These drone attacks, what are the benefits of drone attacks?
And what is the damage done?
And increased hatred against the U.S.?
Anti-Americanism.
This is madness, what we are doing.
Not only is the U.S.
losing the war in Afghanistan, Pakistan, as I said, is committing suicide.
Pakistan's military, by the way,
had many of these same issues with the United States,
but they also disapproved of Khan's tendency to air these grievances publicly.
See, the U.S. has historically helped fund
the Pakistani military, providing billions of dollars
from the Cold War, to more recent counterterrorism efforts.
But Washington cut that money during the Trump era,
around the same time that Khan's new government came into power
and the military was trying to salvage relations between the two countries.
Then, after the U.S.’ 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan,
Khan said this:
Not something the Americans would have been fond of.
The former prime minister continued to defy the foreign policy of both
the United States and seemingly Pakistan's military establishment.
For example, Khan held this meeting with Vladimir Putin
to secure a deal on wheat and natural gas imports mere
hours after Russia invaded Ukraine.
Then, when diplomats from 22 nations asked Khan to condemn
Russia over the invasion,
He had this to say:
Khan advocated for Pakistan to stay neutral in Russia's war.
But then, the military's top official publicly
contradicted the prime minister, condemning Moscow for the invasion.
Khan and the military had already had a falling out
over senior military appointments and the army's growing frustration over
how PTI was governing the country.
In April 2022, it all came crashing down for Khan.
His party had lost support of both coalition allies in parliament
and the military,
amid accusations that he had mishandled
both Pakistan's foreign policy
and faltering economy.
And so parliament removed him from power through a no-confidence vote
brought forward by the opposition alliance.
Khan alleges that the opposition orchestrated the no-confidence vote
at the behest of the Pakistani military and the United States.
While it's widely speculated that
the military was behind Khan's removal,
both Islamabad and Washington have denied the accusation.
Ever since he was ousted, Khan's been fighting more than 100 allegations,
including corruption, treason and even terrorism.
Khan denies all these claims, saying that they’re politically motivated.
Khan's been calling for early elections.
Reports suggest that there's a good chance
his party could sweep the vote.
In November 2022, during a rally,
Khan survived an assassination attempt.
This whole political crisis
has unfolded amidst several unprecedented
economic and environmental crises,
plunging Pakistan deeper into chaos.
The country of over 200 million people has already been experiencing
sky-high inflation,
first due to COVID-19, which devastated supply chains.
Then due to the war in Ukraine,
which sent the prices of everyday commodities through the roof.
The current Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, has been facing public pressure
as inflation and oil prices continue to rise,
while foreign exchange reserves continue to shrink.
Pakistan has also been hit with extreme temperatures, as well as catastrophic
flooding that has led to mass internal displacement.
Pakistan is responsible for less than 1%
of global greenhouse gas emissions,
yet it is facing a super-sized price for manmade climate change.
Some believe Khan is deliberately instigating political unrest
for selfish reasons.
While others see his defiance as selfless
and against a historically corrupt and broken system.
On the other side,
Prime Minister Sharif has refused calls to hold new nationwide snap elections.
Many PTI leaders are now leaving the party
in droves,
some because of the crackdown.
But Khan alleges many are being coerced to leave.
At the same time,
Pakistan's defense minister has also said
that the current government is considering an outright
ban on the entire PTI party.
Currently, elections aren't scheduled until October,
but whether or not PTI is on the ballot,
it's likely that the military
will continue to have a large say in Pakistani politics.