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Let's see, if we were to ask you which are the most tense borders on the planet, I'm
sure you could give me many different answers:
North and South Korea, India and Pakistan, Iran and Iraq, Greece and Turkey, Venezuela
and Colombia, Azerbaijan and Armenia?
After all, which country doesn't have troublesome neighbors?
Thanks, to a large extent, to this state of affairs, VisualPolitik has an endless collection
of topics.
And this time we are going to move to a border that more closely resembles a volcano.
It has been inactive for decades, dormant, without making big headlines... However, in
recent times it has awakened... And how!
(Algeria Cuts Diplomatic Ties With Morocco as Tensions Build – Bloomberg)
It’s not that the relations between the two neighbours were ever that fruitful. The
border shared by Morocco and Algeria has been closed since 1994.
And the two countries have long been at loggerheads over Morocco's occupation of Western Sahara.
Yet in recent times the tension has been growing and the Algerian foreign minister even accused
Morocco of carrying out "hostile actions".
And yes, in a way, it is typical for Algiers to blame Rabat for everything bad that happens
to it: from the existence of separatist groups in the Kabylia region to the brutal wave of
wildfires that the country has suffered this summer.
But this time we are talking about something different.
So the question we can ask ourselves is very clear: What has led Algeria to cut its diplomatic
ties with Morocco?
Has Rabat behaved so badly that its neighbour has taken this decision? Is there a real danger
of things getting out of hand and the Moroccans and Algerians ending up in a tussle?
Today on VisualPolitik we are going to answer these questions. But first, let's look at
a bit of history.
(THE FORGOTTEN SANDS)
Algeria and Morocco have never got along very well. Both countries regard themselves as
the great power of the Maghreb. And that rivalry always ends up generating friction.
To make matters worse, both countries share 994 miles or 1,600 kilometers of border, a
border that France, the former colonial ruler, was never too keen to draw precisely, keeping
the line separating the two territories blurred.
So one of the first things that both countries did as soon as they gained their independence
was to send more and more troops to the border in order to expand their respective territories.
Thus began the so-called Sand War: during 1963 there were numerous border clashes that
served only to fuel the rivalry and enmity between the two neighbours.
Since then the major point of conflict has always been related to the former Spanish
province of Western Sahara. In 1975, Morocco occupied this territory with the so-called
Green March and within months a war broke out between the invaders and the pro-independence
group, The Polisario Front.
And despite the material support of Algeria, the truth is that the fighting did not go
well at all for the Saharawi interests. Hassan II's troops did not hesitate for a second
to use napalm and white phosphorus, which caused the Saharawi to flee to refugee camps
in Algeria.
Since then, 180,000 Saharawis have been living in the Tindouf province, a vast desert plain
in the middle of the Sahara desert.
The war between Morocco and Polisario continued until a truce was reached in 1989 thanks to
the mediation of the UN and the agreement between both parties to hold a referendum.
Yes, a referendum that was never actually held and probably never will be. The point
is that the 1989 truce was seen as an opportunity for the Maghreb.
And this was precisely the moment when the AMU, the Arab Maghreb Union, an organization
created to stimulate free trade between Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco and Tunisia, was
created.
And do you know what? It was an immediate success. Borders were opened and visa controls
were lifted. Trade moved freely from one country to another. But, the harmony was short-lived,
it barely lasted five years.
Civil war plunged Algeria into chaos. And all the hopes placed in the AMU were suddenly
dashed.
In 1994, gunmen shot their way into the Atlas Asni hotel in Marrakech, killing two Spanish
tourists. Hassan II accused Algeria of being behind the attack and in response, Morocco
suddenly expelled thousands of Algerian residents and tourists while again demanding visas.
Algeria's generals responded by fortifying and closing their borders.
Since then, almost 30 years have passed and during all this time the border has been closed.
For years oil and gas boosted the Algerian economy. The country had the resources to
finance its development.
But as fossil fuel prices have plummeted, Algeria has plunged back into chaos, especially
since the popular protests in 2019 that ended Bouteflika's 20-year dictatorship.
Meanwhile, Morocco has strengthened its position. In fact, it is the Alawi dynasty that has
shown the greatest interest in reopening the border. Mohammed VI said this last July in
his Throne Day speech.
(It is my firm belief that an open border between two neighboring countries and two
brotherly peoples is the norm. The closing of borders is incompatible with a natural
right and an intrinsic legal principle, both of which are enshrined in international covenants,
including the Marrakech Treaty, which is the founding text of the Arab Maghreb Union.)
Be that as it may, it doesn't look like this situation is going to change anytime soon.
Listen up.
(NEW TENSIONS AND OLD DISPUTES)
It is almost a year since the Polisario Front ended the cease-fire with Morocco which had
maintained calm in Western Sahara.
We already covered this on VisualPolitik. And as many of you will remember, the situation
worsened when the United States recognized Moroccan sovereignty over the former Spanish
province.
Trump's decision was a victory for the Alawi dynasty and a blow to Saharawi aspirations
to one day hold a referendum on independence.
In return, Morocco had to normalize its diplomatic relations with Israel. And when we talk about
normalizing, we talk about being transparent. Because the truth is that Israel and Morocco
have always maintained very cordial relations, although not officially.
A cordiality about which there are now few doubts in view of the extensive use that the
Moroccan authorities have made of the Israeli spy software, Pegasus.
("Project Pegasus": Algeria closely watched by Morocco - Le Monde)
Moroccan intelligence services spied on a whopping 6,000 telephone numbers with the
Pegasus software.
We are talking about almost all the bigwigs in the neighbouring country: the so-called
Le Pouvoir, [Poo Vwa] the political, economic and military elite that have dominated the
Algerian Republic since the country's independence.
And as you can imagine – you don't need to be Einstein – Rabat's involvement in
this espionage plot has been very unfortunate in Algiers.
And to top it all off, the espionage comes in collaboration with Israel!
Because Algeria is a country where everything moves very slowly. And today it continues
to show itself to be one of the most committed defenders of the Palestinian cause.
So Algiers is accusing Rabat of betraying the Muslim world by allying itself with the
Jewish enemy. And of course, the ones who are really delighted with all these new developments
are the Israelis. Because the logic of “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” always works.
In the same vein, three years ago Rabat broke off relations with Iran after it came to light
that the Polisario Front was receiving support from Iran and Hezbollah.
So, let’s say, the blocs appear to be defined like this: Morocco and Israel versus Algeria
and Iran. That is why in August the Israeli foreign minister visited Morocco and did not
miss the opportunity to add fuel to the fire.
(Lapid reveals the existence of a rapprochement between Algeria and Iran – Hespress)
But, be careful, because all these renewed ties between Morocco and Israel also come
in handy for the Algerian government.
And you see, as I was telling you before, the fall in oil and gas prices has been terrible
for the country's economy. Especially because the government had been subsidizing a lot
of things with the money it received from oil and gas.
And, of course, as soon as the cuts came, the citizens' protests took Bouteflika's regime
by storm.
But wait a minute, because the whole post-Bouteflika period is getting even worse.
The struggles between the different factions of Le Pouvoir have only added to the chaos
in the country. So, let's say, turning the spotlight on an external enemy, be it Morocco
or Israel, is a strategy that Algerian propaganda was eager to exploit.
To what extent? Well, to the extent that this summer northern Algeria was literally a raging
inferno. Morocco offered two fire-fighting planes.
And what do you think the Algerian response was? Well... Rather burn than be humiliated.
Check it out.
(Morocco's Aid Offer to Algeria Falls on Deaf Ears, Tebboune Calls for European Help, Moroccoworldnews)
Believe me, the tug-of-war is continuous.
Now, what is clear is that the economies of both countries would gain a lot if both countries
got along well. And things in Algeria are certainly not going in the right direction,
especially when it comes to the economy.
So the question is, why is there so much interest in confronting Rabat? Is it just a question
of propaganda and political marketing?
Well... listen up.
(GAS & FURY)
Algeria is the tenth largest producer of natural gas in the world. Half of this gas is used
for its own consumption and the other half is exported, and as you can imagine, its main
customers are European: 60% of the natural gas that Algeria sells abroad reaches Italy
or Spain, mostly through pipelines.
But of course, you know where Algeria is located. For these pipelines to be able to reach the
European continent, at the time it was necessary to negotiate with neighbouring countries:
Tunisia for the Trans-Mediterranean gas pipeline and Morocco for the Maghreb-Europe gas pipeline.
And yes, the current diplomatic crisis between the two countries has already had consequences.
(In new escalation, Algeria to stop supplying gas to Spain via Morocco – The Arab Weekly)
If there is one thing that connects the economies of Algeria and Morocco, it is undoubtedly
the Maghreb-Europe gas pipeline. A total of 870 miles or 1,400 kilometers of pipeline
from the Algerian fields to Cordoba in Spain, 335 miles or 540 kilometers of which run through
Moroccan territory before crossing the Strait of Gibraltar.
The pipeline was inaugurated in 1996 and currently has the capacity to transport some 10,000
million cubic meters of natural gas per year.
Negotiations for the implementation of this pipeline began in 1990, exactly during that
5-year period in which Morocco and Algeria got along reasonably well.
And it was a win-win agreement. Spain secured its main source of gas supply while Algeria
became richer by trading.
But the real key to it all is in what the Alawi dynasty got out of it.
You see, in exchange for the rights of transit of gas to the Iberian Peninsula, Morocco receives
a toll of 7% of the value of the gas exported along this route. In 2019, this figure did
not reach US$58 million or 50 million euros because of the fall in fuel prices, but in
2014, it was close to US$232 million or 200 million euros.
In addition, the company in charge of operating the pipeline is a company whose shareholding
is shared by the Spanish Naturgy and the Portuguese Galp, thanks to an agreement made in 1992
and which is set to expire on 31 October 2021. This means that in a matter of days, ownership
of the Moroccan section of the pipeline will revert to the Moroccan state.
Rabat had already let it be known that they hoped to obtain an even more advantageous
agreement. The problem for Morocco is that the Maghreb-Europe pipeline is not the only
one that transports Algerian gas to the Iberian Peninsula.
In 2011, the Medgaz underwater gas pipeline was inaugurated, which directly connects the
Algerian gas fields with the Spanish network in Almeria. It has a capacity of 8,000 million
cubic metres.
This means that the Medgaz pipeline alone would be insufficient to cover Spain's needs.
But Algeria's state-owned Sonatrach has already made its move.
(Naturgy and Sonatrach expand the capacity of the Medgaz gas pipeline by 25%. ABC)
The expansion of Medgaz will bring the export capacity of the pipeline to 10 billion cubic
meters. According to the agreement, it is to be completed before the end of 2021.
Although, just in case, Algeria has assured Spain that if the project is delayed or needs
more gas, it would be ready to supply it by means of ships with liquefied natural gas.
Another problem for Morocco is that the Maghreb-Europe gas pipeline provides 45% of its gas demand
at a price below the market price. A natural gas that also supplies fuel to the thermal
plants that generate 12% of the country's electricity.
In other words: cutting off the tap of the Maghreb-Europe gas pipeline would mean that
Algeria would be depriving its neighbour of an important energy supply and a notable source
of income.
The best tool for political propaganda. Although not the only one.
The truth is that lately in Algiers they don't miss a chance to take a dig at their neighbours.
I don't know if it has anything to do with the fact that generating a conflict is typically
a device used by politicians across the globe to hide their failures and reinforce their
leadership.
[Come on citizens. Let’s rise up together against the enemy]
(Algeria closes airspace to all Moroccan planes – Al Jazeera)
However, there are two issues that Algeria should not ignore.
On the one hand, LNG is more expensive to deliver than gas arriving by pipeline. Therefore,
Algerian gas will lose its competitive edge.
And Spanish regasification plants can receive LNG from Algeria but also from anywhere else
in the world. So they need to be careful that the pipeline expansion is not delayed.
On the other hand, without the Maghreb-Europe gas pipeline in operation, any technical problem
preventing the Medgaz one from operating would leave Algeria with no alternative for transporting
its natural gas to the Iberian Peninsula. And with this it would lose one of its main
sources of income.
And bear one thing in mind, Spain may have gas stores that could temporarily cover any
lack of supply, but I assure you that, right now, there is not a dinar left over in Algerian
coffers. And that's not counting the money they would lose by ceasing to supply Morocco.
In the end, everything points to the fact that all this enormous tension that has been
stirred up between the two neighbours may just be an Algerian ploy to strengthen its
position when negotiating the future of the Maghreb-Europe gas pipeline and prevent Morocco
from demanding a review of the conditions that were agreed 30 years ago.
So, although VisualPolitik will continue to keep an eye on this issue, it seems unlikely
that the blood will reach the river... or in this case, the border. Of course... You
know how these things are: tension exists and one mistake or the slightest misunderstanding
can suddenly light the fuse.
Playing with fire, that is economic and military threats, is never a good idea.
But at this point, We have a question for you: Do you think that in the end sanity will
reign and an agreement will be reached that is basically beneficial for both Morocco and
Algeria? Leave us your answers in the comments below and if you found this video interesting,
don't forget to like it.
All the best and see you next time.