COLD
COLD OCTOBER, FOLLOWED BY A DRY AND RELATIVELY WARM
NOVEMBER...
NOW THE SNOW HAS
BEGUN TO FLY AND WE'RE
FEELING THE NEED TO
BREAK OUT THE WINTER
COATS.
DECEMBER IS JUST A
COUPLE OF DAYS AWAY -
SO... WHAT DO WE NEED
TO KNOW BEFORE WINTER
BEGINS?
METEOROLOGIST BRI
EGGERS BREAKS DOWN
THE SEASONAL
FORECAST...
AS METEOROLOGISTS, WE
OFTEN GET THE
QUESTION: "WHAT WILL
THIS WINTER BE LIKE?"
AND
AND THAT
AND THAT QUESTION IS OFTEN FOLLOWED BY STATEMENTS OF FEAR OR
ANXIETY: "I HEARD IT'S
GOING TO BE BAD."
LET'S BE REAL... HAS
ANYONE EVER SAID, "I'M
NOT WORRIED ABOUT
THIS WINTER. IT WILL BE A
CAKE-WALK!"
AFTER OUR COLD-TOBER,
IT'S LIKELY YOU MAY BE
FEELING A LITTLE
"WORRIED ABOUT
WINTER" -
SO, LET'S TALK IT OUT...
IN RECENT YEARS, WHEN
ANYONE ASKS ABOUT THE
UPCOMING WINTER... IT'S
USUALLY FOLLOWED BY
SOME P-T-S-D FROM
"THAT WINTER" WE WON'T
SOON FORGET:
"2016-2017... WHAT DID
PEOPLE CALL IT??
SNOWMAGEDDON
SNOPOCALYPSE. YUP!
SNOWPOCALYPSE. SO WE
CAN GET A LOT OF SNOW
HERE."
WITH JUST OVER 39" OF
SNOW, 2016-2017 WAS
THE 10TH SNOWIEST ON
RECORD FOR BOISE, AND
THE SNOWIEST WINTER
SINCE 1985-86 ... THAT
BRUTAL WINTER BROUGHT
NEARLY 40" OF SNOW
AND LONG STRETCHES OF
SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES.
"IN 85 & 86, I REMEMBER
IT QUITE A BIT AND, I
THINK WHAT STANDS OUT
IN MY MIND WAS THAT WE
HAD AN INVERSION THAT
LASTED FOR OVER 30
DAYS."
TO PUT THIS IN
PERSPECTIVE, AN AVERAGE
WINTER FOR BOISE IS
ABOUT 20" OF SNOW.
1985/86 AND 2016-2017
HAD TWICE THE
AVERAGE AMOUNT OF
SNOW PILE UP.
BUT COULD THAT HAPPEN
AGAIN THIS WINTER?
"THOSE
"THOSE WERE REALLY ROUGH WINTERS, EVEN THE REALLY COLD ONES
WHEN WE'RE 23 & 25
BELOW, THEY DON'T
HAPPEN TOO OFTEN."
OF COURSE, IT WOULD BE
NICE IF WE COULD "SEE" A
BLOCKBUSTER WINTER
COMING BEFORE IT
HAPPENS.
GET THE BREAD & MILK,
THE CHAINS & SNOW
TIRES, PACK YOUR
PATIENCE AND PREPARE...
YES - A FORECAST IS
ALWAYS HELPFUL SO THAT
WE CAN TAKE A PEEK INTO
THE FUTURE AND PLAN
AHEAD...
BUT FORECASTING FOR A
90 DAY PERIOD... DEC. 1ST
THROUGH THE END OF
FEBRUARY - IS VERY
TRICKY... IF NOT ALMOST
IMPOSSIBLE.
"PEOPLE WANT TO DO AS
MUCH LONG RANGE
PLANNING AS POSSIBLE
BUT YOU ALWAYS HAVE
TO REMEMBER, IN THE
NEXT FIVE MINUTES, WE'RE
EXACTLY ACCURATE.
ANYTHING THAT GOES
BEYOND THAT BECOMES
THIS WIDE RANGE OF
WHAT CAN HAPPEN."
WHEN IT COMES TO
SEASONAL FORECASTING,
THERE ARE SEVERAL
"PUZZLE PIECES" AROUND
THE
THE GLOBE
THE GLOBE THAT METEOROLOGISTS LOOK AT TO PUT TOGETHER A
GENERAL OUTLOOK -
LOOKING AT THE GLOBAL
SCALE OF WEATHER
PATTERNS, CALLED
TELECONNECTIONS
A BIG PIECE OF THE
PUZZLE? "ENSO" - THE EL
NINO SOUTHERN
OSCILLATION - THE
WARMING AND COOLING
SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC.
THE STATE OF ENSO CAN
BE A BIG CLUE, BECAUSE
WE CAN FORECAST IT
SEVERAL MONTHS OUT...
WHERE MANY OF THE
OTHER PUZZLE PIECES
CAN CHANGE EVERY
COUPLE/FEW WEEKS.
SO, WE LOOK AT ENSO -
AND THIS YEAR, WE DON'T
FIND EL NINO
OR LA NINA...
WE FIND "LA NADA" - OR
A NEUTRAL YEAR.
WHICH CAN MEAN
ANYTHING.... TO BE
FRANK, IT'S A BIT OF A
WILD CARD.
LET ME SHOW YOU WHAT I
FOUND WHILE LOOKING
AT SOME ANALOGUES....
IN THE LAST 70 YEARS, 23
WINTERS HAVE BEEN
ENSO NEUTRAL YEARS...
OUT OF THOSE 23
NEUTRAL YEARS, 10
WINTERS HAD NEAR
AVERAGE SNOW, 8 HAD
BELOW AVERAGE SNOW
AND 5 WINTERS WERE
WILD WINTERS WITH
BETWEEN 30-40" OF
SNOW!
- AND ONE OF THOSE
NEUTRAL WINTERS WAS
1985/86!
GETTING A FOREBODING
FEELING? WELL, HOLD ON
A SECOND...
WHILE WE CAN
SOMETIMES FIND
PATTERNS BY LOOKING AT
PAST WINTERS - IT'S
IMPORTANT TO
REMEMBER THAT NO TWO
YEARS ARE EXACTLY ALIKE.
AND ON ANY GIVEN YEAR,
A "NEW" PUZZLE PIECE
COULD
COULD POP
COULD POP IN OUR EVER-CHANGING CLIMATE
EVER-CHANGING CLIMATE
TO
TO THROW
TO THROW A POTENTIAL PATTERN OFF. LIKE THIS... THE "BLOB" AS
IT'S BEEN CALLED... A BIG
POOL OF SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OFF THE
PACIFIC COASTLINE THAT'S
ABNORMALLY WARM... IT'S
FAIRLY "NEW," DUE TO
OUR CHANGING CLIMATE
AND HAS BEEN A
CONTRIBUTING FACTOR
TO DROUGHT
CONDITIONS AND
WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE WEST IN RECENT
YEARS.
OKAY... SO...
METEOROLOGICAL
WINTER BEGINS ON
DECEMBER 1ST...
HERE ARE OUR "TOP FIVE
KEY COMPONENTS" FOR
THE WINTER OUTLOOK OF
2019-2020:
NUMBER FIVE: THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER IS CALLING FOR
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
THROUGH DEC, JAN &
FEB... WE AGREE WITH
THIS:
"I THINK WE'LL SEE
OVERALL, TEMPERATURES
RUNNING A LITTLE
WARMER THAN NORMAL."
-BUT REMEMBER, THAT'S A
"GENERAL OUTLOOK"
OVER 90 DAYS. THERE
WILL BE "WARM" WINTER
DAYS, AND ALSO BITTERLY
COLD WINTER DAYS
NUMBER FOUR: NEAR
OR BELOW AVERAGE
SNOWFALL - STILL, PLAN
ON A FEW VERY DIFFICULT
MORNING COMMUTES.
"WE'LL HAVE SOME SNOW
HERE IN THE VALLEY, BUT I
BELIEVE IT WILL BE
AROUND THE RANGE OF
15-20" TOTAL FOR THE
YEAR."
NUMBER THREE: WE'LL
HAVE MORE INVERSION
DAYS THIS WINTER THAN
WE DID LAST WINTER
- THE GLOOM, THE HAZE,
THE LONGING FOR
SPRING... WITH A RIDGE
OVERHEAD, THERE WILL
LIKELY BE STRETCHES OF
DULL, STAGNANT AIR DAYS
BUT MAYBE THAT WILL
MEAN AN EARLY SPRING?
- I'M NOT BASING THIS
ON ANYTHING
SCIENTIFIC... I JUST HAVE A
HUNCH. IF WE KICKED
OFF THE COLD EARLY, WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO
BREAK OUT THE SPRING
SANDALS EARLY TOO.
NUMBER TWO: THE
FIRST HALF OF WINTER
WILL BE DIFFERENT FROM
THE SECOND HALF...
- IF DECEMBER IS SPARSE
ON SNOW AND COLD,
FEBRUARY WILL HAVE
MORE OF BOTH
- IF DECEMBER IS COLD
AND SNOWY, FEBRUARY
WILL BE DRIER AND
WARMER
AND THE NUMBER ONE
TAKEAWAY FOR WINTER
2019-2020... EXPECT THE
UNEXPECTED
- SEASONAL FORECASTS
ARE TRICKY... AND THEY
ONLY GIVE US A VERY
GENERAL "OUTLOOK" FOR
90 DAYS OF WEATHER.
- STAY ON TOP OF THE
FORECAST HERE WITH US,
EACH
EACH AND
EACH AND EVERY DAY... WINTER IS A SEASON... AND AFTER IT ENDS,
SPRING BEGINS - THIS WE
KNOW FOR SURE.
BLACK FRIDAY IS HERE
BUT HOW DO YOU KNOW
IF YOU ARE ACTUALLY
GETTING THE BEST DEALS?