>>> THIS IS DAY 35 OF RUSSIA'S
INVASION OF UKRAINE.
THERE ARE DEVELOPMENTS, THERE
ARE PEACE TALKS, BUT THERE'S
ALSO THE FACT THAT RUSSIA IS NOT
WHERE IT THOUGHT IT WOULD BE,
NOT REMOATLYTELY CLOSE AT THIS P
IN THE WAR.
INTELLIGENCE SAYS VLADIMIR PUTIN
MAY HAVE GOTTEN TO THIS POINT
BECAUSE HE DIDN'T KNOW WHERE HE
WAS EVEN 35 DAYS AGO, THAT HE'S
BEEN MISLED BY HIS OWN TOP
AIDES.
THEY SAY PUTIN MISLEADS, THAT HE
IS LIED TO AND IS A LIAR.
THEY SAY HE WOULD PULLBACK FROM
A SUBURB WHERE THERE WAS
BOMBING.
RUSSIA CLAIMED IT WOULD PULL
BACK BUT THERE'S BEEN MORE
BOMBING.
YOU'RE LOOKING AT WHAT WAS ONCE
A MARKET NOW COMPLETELY DAMAGED
AND UNUSABLE.
AND RECOVERING BODIES AND AN
11-YEAR-OLD GIRL DISCUSSING HER NEIGHBORHOOD BOMBED.
NEIGHBORHOOD BOMBED.
>> THIS IS PART OF THE REALITY
AGAINST THE PERIOD WHERE RUSSIA
SAID IT WAS GOING TO PARTIALLY
PULL BACK.
YOU HAVE WORLD LEADERS AND
UKRAINIAN REFUGEES SAYING THEY
ALREADY KNOW VLADIMIR PUTIN SO
NOTHING ABOUT THIS DEVELOPMENT
IS SURPRISING.
>> WE'RE TALKING ABOUT TRYING TO
SET THE CONDITIONS FOR
DECREASING MILITARY TENSIONS,
BUT I THINK IT'S WAY TOO SOON TO FEEL ANY CONFIDENCE IN THAT.
>> I WOULD SAY WE HAVE NO REASON
TO TRUST RUSSIA, TO TRUST
LAVROV, TO TRUST PUTIN.
>> CONDITION NUMBER ONE, PLEASE
DON'T TRUST PUTIN.
>> THAT'S THE VIEW OF THE
ACTIONS BY PUTIN AGAINST THIS
MILITARY CONTEXT.
BUT HOW DID PUTIN GET INTO THIS
PLACE?
WELL, U.S. INTELLIGENCE HAS A
REPORT NOW THAT SAYS THEY HAVE
INFORMATION AND INTELLIGENCE
THAT SUGGESTS HE CONTINUES TO BE
MISINFORMED ABOUT THE INVASION
BY, QUOTE, YES MEN.
REUTERS AND OTHERS HAVE COVERED
THAT STORY.
YOU SEE THE HEADLINE ABOUT YES
MEN AND YOU HAVE THIS TENSION
BETWEEN PUTIN AND HIS OWN
MILITARY LEADERS.
YOU HAVE TOP UGS.S. OFFICIALS IN
THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION
BREAKING IT DOWN LIKE THIS.
>> ONE OF THE ACHILLES HEELS OF
AUTOCRACIES IS YOU DON'T HAVE
PEOPLE IN THE SYSTEM WHO SPEAK
TRUTH TO POWER.
>> HIS SENIOR ADVISERS ARE TOO
AFRAID TO TELL HIM THE TRUTH.
>> I'M JOINED BY SOMEONE WHO HAS
BEEN EXACTLY SUCH A SENIOR
ADVISER TO A RUSSIAN PRESIDENT.
HE WAS THE RUSSIAN FOREIGN
MINISTER UNDER BORIS YELTSIN AND
HIS DEPUTY HAS ASSUMED THAT
POSITION FOR PUTIN.
WELCOME BACK.
>> THANK YOU.
THANK YOU.
>> YOU KNOW, THERE'S NO GREAT
INTELLECTUAL VICTORY LAPS DURING
THIS KIND OF GRIM WAR AND
HUMANITARIAN CRISIS, AND YET FOR
THE SAKE OF MAKING SENSE OF
WHAT'S HAPPENING, WHICH IS WHAT
WE ENDEAVOR TO DO HERE, HERE ON
DAY 35 I'M QUOTING U.S.
INTELLIGENCE ABOUT, QUOTE, YES
MEN AND WHAT AMERICAN OFFICIALS
ARE PROBABLY SAYING ABOUT PUTIN.
YOU DID DIAGNOSE THIS VERY
INFORMATION CHAIN PROBLEM ON
"THE BEAT."
YOU REFERRED TO THE QUOTE YES
MEN AROUND PUTIN, AND YOU
EXPLAINED TO US THEN WHY PUTIN
WOULD SOONER BE OVERTHROWN THAN
GET BAD NEWS.
LET'S JUST TAKE A QUICK LOOK AT
THAT.
>> IS THERE ANYONE INSIDE THE
RAUGS
RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT WHO CAN EVEN
GIVE HIM THE BAD NEWS?
>> THAT'S LESS POSSIBLE THAN
OVERTHROW HIM.
THAT'S A RUSSIAN TRADITION.
THEY FEAR TO TELL THE BOSS THE
TRUTH, BUT ONE DAY THEY MIGHT COME WITH A WEAPON AND ESCORT
COME WITH A WEAPON AND ESCORT
HIM EITHER TO THE GRAVE OR TO
RETIREMENT.
>> A FEW WEEKS LATER HOW IS THAT
PLAYING OUT?
AND AS A FOREIGN POLICY LEADER,
WHY DO YOU THINK THAT THE UNITED
STATES IS NOT ONLY FINDING THIS,
WHATEVER THEIR INTELLIGENCE IS,
IT'S DRAWN THE WAY YOURS IS ON
EXPERIENCE, BUT MAKING THIS PART
OF THEIR PUBLIC PRESENTATION NOW
TODAY?
>> WELL, THEY PROBABLY HAVE
INTELLIGENCE BUT I JUST HAVE THE
KNOWLEDGE OF TRADITION AND A
LITTLE BIT OF INSIGHT IN WHAT
HAPPENS IN KREMLIN IN MY TIME
WHEN I WAS FOREIGN MINISTER.
IT WAS DIFFICULT TO REPORT
UNWELCOMED NEWS TO MY BOSS,
PRESIDENT YELTSIN.
BUT AT LEAST IT WAS POSSIBLE
OCCASIONALLY.
AND HE WOULD LISTEN, HE WOULD
NEVER CHANGE IMMEDIATELY HIS
MIND BUT LATER ON HE WOULD CALL
ME ON DIRECT LINE AND SAY
SOMETHING LIKE, OH, OKAY, OKAY,
YOU'LL DO IT YOUR WAY.
SO HE WAS AMENABLE.
THIS GUY I JUST WANT TO BE VERY
CLEAR THAT, YES, HE COULD HAVE
BEEN DECEIVED, MISINFORMED BY
HIS ENTOURAGE, BUT THE POLICY,
THIS BAND-AID TYPE POLICY IS
HIS.
THAT'S WHAT IS IMPORTANT TO
REMEMBER.
THAT THEY DECEIVED HIM ON SOME
FACTS AND THE WHOLE SITUATION
REMINDS ME THAT ABOUT A SYCOPHANT FOLKS AND GULLIBLE
SYCOPHANT FOLKS AND GULLIBLE
WHEN A SYCOPHANT HAD PERSUADED
THE CROWD TO SING AND WAS AFTER
THE PIECE OF CHEESE.
SO THOSE GUYS AROUND HIM, THEY
ARE MOSTLY CROOKS.
THEY ARE AFTER THE CHEESE.
THEY ARE AFTER THE MONEY.
SO THEY WANTED HIM TO AUTHORIZE
FUNDING FOR THE MILITARY, FOR
THE OPERATION, FOR EVERYTHING,
FOR KILLING, FOR BOMBING, BUT
THEY WANTED TO STEAL AND THEY
DID A LOT BECAUSE YOU CAN SEE
HOW BADLY RUSSIAN ARMY IS DOING
IN FACT.
AND THEY -- SO THEY WERE TELLING HIM WHAT HE WANTED TO HEAR AND
HIM WHAT HE WANTED TO HEAR AND
HE KIND OF STUPIDLY OPENED THE
CHEESE AND THEY STOLE THE CHEESE
AND HE IS NOW IN A RIDICULOUS
POSITION.
BUT AGAIN, HE -- IT DOES NOT
RELIEVE HIM FROM THE CRIME WHICH
HE AUTHORIZED AND WHICH HE
PURSUES.
>> YEAH.
AND I DON'T KNOW THE CROW-CHEESE
STORY AS WELL, THOUGH IT RINGS A
BELL AND WE KNOW WHAT IT IS FOR
PEOPLE TO GO AFTER THE CHEESE OR
THE MONEY AND, AS YOU SAY,
THEY'RE PILFERING SO THEY HAVE A
DIFFERENT STRUCTURE IF THERE'S A
KLEPTOCRACY AND THERE'S SO MUCH
STEALING GOING ON.
IF THIS IS, AS YOU SAY IS
RUSSIAN TRADITION AND PUTIN HAS
KGB EXPERIENCE, I DON'T KNOW HOW
THEY TRACK YOU BUT SOME PEOPLE
OVER THERE KNOW YOU AND YOU SAID
IT THEN AND NOW U.S.
INTELLIGENCE SAYS IT AND AT WHAT
POINT DOES PUTIN HEAR ABOUT ALL
THIS AND HAVE AN INCENTIVE TO
IMPROVE HIS INCOMING
INFORMATION?
DOES THAT EVER HAPPEN?
>> THAT MAY BE, YES.
THAT MAY BE BUT HE WILL DO IT
VERY, VERY KIND OF
SURREPTITIOUSLY BECAUSE
OTHERWISE HE WILL BE EXPOSED
EVEN
SURROUND HIM SO HE WILL DO IT
VERY CALMLY BUT MAYBE VERY
RUTHLESSLY, TOO.
AND THAT HAPPENS, YES, THAT'S
ALSO RUSSIAN TRADITION BUT IT'S
NOT BAD NEWS FOR US BECAUSE, YOU
KNOW, THAT MEANS THAT THE
KINGDOM WILL BE AGAINST ITSELF
INSIDE AND AS WAS SAID, THIS
KINGDOM CANNOT STAND SO THAT'S
GOOD NEWS.
>> YEAH, REALLY FASCINATING.
YOU KNOW OF WHICH YOU SPEAK,
WHICH IS WHY WE KEEP COMING BACK
TO YOU AND LIKE U.S.