- I wonder if there are calculators out there
that can predict my race time?
So, my goal time, ideally, I think that I have a ...
Little bit far forward on the seat ...
Right there and then (exclaims)!
(upbeat music)
Good morning, Trainiacs.
So far, day two, first full day in Austin.
I'm sold, I like this place.
Oh, you're white.
It's hip, it's cool, there are outdoor pools,
Lyft is easy to get around, I got a super hipster
coffee place just like a half a block away from me,
I like it, I'm in, we're moving.
Pack up Petey and Gracie.
So, we're right now, uh, Friday, Saturday, Sunday,
three days, less than 72 hours from Half Iron Man Austin.
And of course, I start getting a little fidgety
and thinking like, "Oh, you know,
is my goal time gonna be where it's at?"
And I start thinking, "I wonder if there are calculators
out there that can predict my race time?"
Sure enough, there is.
Now, take all of this with a grain of salt, 'cause
I remember doing this way back in the day and the times
were way off, but you know what, it pieced together.
Hey, I been hearing about BestBikeSplit.com
and apparently, it is like super accurate.
So, okay, so number one, the first website that I found
that is like predicting an entire race based off of
previous races is SportsDigest.co.za/trical.shtml,
I'll have it right there.
And what you get is this here, so you punch in a race
that you have previously done, if you've done one before.
So, I'm gonna go to the last Olympic race that I did,
I'm gonna pull up the results for that.
We're right here without any transition time,
so let's go a 25 11 swim, make sure that these
transitions are set to zero.
The bike was short by about 3K,
so while it says 58 13 here, I'm gonna change that
to say, I'm gonna go 63 minutes,
and then a 40 35 bike and I wanna say it was
about 300 meters short, so I'm gonna make it an even 41.
Select a race distance that I'm planning on,
hit calculate, and it tells me
that I am gonna do a 434 Half Iron Man.
Now, that seems really optimistic,
so then, I thought to myself,
"Alright, let's look at the individual disciplines
and see if there are websites for that."
And also, if you haven't done a race,
how do you figure that out?
So, I found swimbikerun.net.nz ...
You know what, just link's in the description below,
and what you punch in is the last time trial
that I did for a 400 meter effort,
is a 400 meter in 608, you hit calculate,
and then, wanna see how accurate this is?
For a 1500 meter swim, which is what the last
Olympic race is, 24 54 and I was a 25 11.
Actually pretty close, so let's
go to the Half Iron Man distance.
It's predicting a 31 59 and this is actually
predicting a longer distance, alright,
okay, let's go to Best Bike Split.
The rumors were that as this got developed,
that on Full Iron Man courses, consistently,
BestBikeSplit.com was cranking out predictions
that were like within a minute, consistently,
over and over and over, and this is
all around the world on different courses.
I'll walk you through Best Bike Split quickly.
Number one, it ain't free.
I just subscribed to it and until October 31st,
you can get 30 percent off, this isn't sponsored,
just because they wanna celebrate Iron Man Kona,
so it cost me like 83 bucks for an annual subscription.
You put in your profile, so you put in
your level of experience, the training elevation
that you do most of your work in,
your height, your weight, your FTP, your max heart rate,
you go into your bike and you add all your bikes,
so you actually put in what wheels you're on,
what tires you're on, how your bike fit is,
how aerodynamic you are.
Then, you can go and add a course and ask for a prediction,
so I asked for Austin 70.3, and it goes
and predicts a 230 43 Half Iron Man bike.
Let's go back to this first one.
Okay, so this is predicting a little bit faster.
I'm gonna default more towards Best Bike Split,
because it's proven a lot better.
So, let's say instead of 43408, I'm at like a 436,
and then we'll go to a run predictor calculator.
So, I'm planning to run a half marathon,
I ran the 10K in that race, 'cause you always wanna
use your race times from a triathlon ideally,
because how long you've been in a sport,
how conditioned you are for triathlons
and running off the bike makes a big difference
in how close your triathlon run times
are gonna be to your actual flat out run time.
If you haven't done a triathlon before,
take like a flat out run time and add
anywhere between about seven and 10 percent
for an expected triathlon run time.
But I'm gonna actually take my triathlon run time
from the Olympic distance race
and I'm gonna say that because it was a little bit short,
we'll change that to about 41 minutes, and in
a half marathon, this is predicting I'm going to a 130 28.
That seems optimistic, because I did
a 128 flat in just a regular race.
This predictor over here, holy geez, 130 28.
Whoa, bang on.
So, my goal time, ideally, I think
that I have a 440 in me, in a perfect race,
I think that's what I've got.
Depending on the conditions, depending on the wind,
depending on the course, depending
on how my body reacts to all the travel that we've been
doing lately, I think that's what I've got in me.
According to all of these, I think that it's possible.
It looks like it's possible.
Because this and all of them individually
is predicting somewhere around a 436, 37.
If you're going into a race and you're like,
"You know what, what am I gonna do?"
Now, you've got some parameters.
All the links will be in the description below.
I gotta go put together my bike
and go for a bike on the run course.
Alright, let's go do that.
(upbeat music)
Let's do this.
Alright, let's take a look and see
if the bike came through unscathed.
So far so good, don't feel any cracks, nothing, nothing.
Looking good, looking good.
Think we might be okay.
Don't jinx it!
Don't even think it.
(upbeat music)
I think that we might be set.
Everything came together pretty well.
Only thing I'm a little bit curious about
is the saddle height, otherwise, like only
a few missing screws, but that's normal, right?
So, now, I'm gonna go and bike the run course.
It's a three loop 13 mile, so that means
that it's only a 6K loop, so I'll bike it
and then do another little bike around
and to dial in that saddle, I will take
the only two tools that I needed to put it back together.
So, if I gotta move the saddle up and down,
I got it dialed in, take a feel, see how it goes.
Let's go, let's go.
(upbeat music)
Well, that was an adventure and I
learned a very valuable lesson.
For starters, don't ever turn a camera off
until you are absolutely certain you're done.
Was trying those flying mounts,
looking all suave and I'm like,
"Pfft, I've got this, easy."
And then the very last one that I tried,
I went a little bit far forward on the seat,
like right there and then (exclaims),
little tear in the twig and berries.
Did not appreciate that.
That course is gonna be nice, gonna be so nice.
Alright, Trainiacs, that is all for the day.
Bike is built besides a minor
bike seat catastrophe, everything's good.
You have wonderful days.