Hello and welcome to Morningstar. I'm Emma Wall and I'm joined today by Mark Wharrier,
Manager of the BlackRock U.K. Income Fund to give his three stock picks.
Hi, Mark.
Good morning.
So what is the first company today?
Well, the bank sector we think is very interesting at the moment and it's an area we've been
increasing in the portfolio this year. The company Llyods has been a share that we focused
on. I think the sector is interesting because you've gone through this horrendous period
of bad debt write-offs, PPI, insurance claims. That’s now coming to an end. So essentially
in a bank like Lloyds you have very cash generative, very strong deposit taking franchise. The
cash flow that it's now going to be generating is going to be able to be distributed to shareholders.
Also the regulatory environment is, well it's not great it's becoming less bad and that’s
important for a share that trades on a pretty low P/E multiple and a pretty low price to
EBIT multiple.
You say things like PPI coming to an end. I was listening to (indiscernible) morning
and they were saying even more fines expected. Do you think it's just a drop in the ocean
for these banks now and actually even if there are further fines actually it's not going
to affect things like the dividend.
I think it's just really the scale of the liabilities that we are looking at going forward
– five years ago we were looking at multi-billion pound liabilities. And I think the fines and
those types of conduit costs they can be accommodated in business as usual expenditure. So I think
that’s the key change and companies consequently got more visibility in terms of how much capital
that they can now distribute to shareholders.
And what's the second company today.
Well, it’s a company we've held for a long time is Next, which is I'm sure a familiar
company to everybody who invests and everybody who shops. But I think it’s a great example
of a company that's operating in quite a difficult environment, the U.K. clothing market is not
without its challenges, but because the company has a very low cost base it's been on the
forefront of growing its online business directory. It’s a very high return and capital business.
what's turned a good investment into a spectacular investment is what the company has done with
that cash flow and what it's done with its balance sheet.
So if you go back to the year 2000 the company's returned over GBP3 billion in share buybacks
over that period. So an earnings growth that perhaps running at 5% or 10% has been running
strong double digit because they have shrunk the share count. They have been very disciplined
with capital and they have rewarded shareholders rather than through diversification or over
expansion. So a company really focused on shareholders and that’s what we like to
see.
So many retailers have fallen foul of ecommerce but Next seems to get it right. You've mentioned
you've held it for some time, is Next a sort of stock that you could go on holding for
ever and ever – sell trigger with that sort of company.
Obviously if it became very expensive. If the P/E multiple started to go into the 20s
we would reexamine it. But at the moment it is still trading on free cash flow yield which
is the metric we really look at of about 5% and for a company with such a great long term
record and dividend yield is still very attractive. We think it still stacks up.
And what's the third and final company today.
Well, it’s a company we bought last year, Carnival which is a cruise line operator.
A slightly more controversial holding, this has been a poor investment really for the
last decade. The company have had a lot of self-inflicted problems. But when new management
team took over last year and we think they are gradually turning it around, but like
a cruise ship it takes a long time to turnaround. But if you look at the airline industry and
if you book a flight with EasyJet, the flight tends to become more expensive as you get
towards the departure date.
The cruise industry hasn’t worked like that for the last couple of decades. There's been
too much stock that’s been left to sell at low price at the last minute. What management
are doing now is starting to change that mentality. So better yield management more facilities
for better onboard spend. For a company that’s trading close to book value. There is lot
of gearing there in terms of share price performance if the management pull off that restructuring.
And how reliant is that company on the U.K. economy because obviously it's more pounds
in the pocket for the consumer means more pounds to spend on things like cruises. Obviously
we are in quite comfortable place in the U.K. economy, but interest rates could change that
it could mean less money in the pocket for individuals because they are going to spend
more on their mortgages. Are you keeping an eye on that.
It's a good point and I think all consumer companies we need to think about this because
we are now in a quite mature phase for the U.K. economy. The great thing about Carnival
and the cruise industry is this really the grey pound that drive that industry and actually
rising interest rates for many pensioners means higher income to more discretionary
spending power. So it's one of those few consumer players that could actually benefit if the
interest rate environment changes.
Mark thank you very much.
Thank you.
This is Emma Wall from Morningstar. Thank you for watching.