VisualPolitik fans, pay close attention because what we are going to tell you
here will not leave you indifferent. For starters, keep this fact in mind:
Two-thirds of the world's inhabitants live in countries where the fertility rate does not even
reach the replacement rate, that is, 2.1 births per woman of childbearing age, which is considered
to be the rate that allows the maintenance of a stable population over the long term.
In fact, in the developed world, only Israel has managed to consistently
achieve a birth rate above this figure. And obviously this is something that has
consequences, check it out: N1("World population growth
reaches lowest rate since 1950". FT) In fact, the increase in mortality,
the fall in the number of births and a lower net immigration due to the pandemic meant that during
2020 and 2021, the European population fell by more than two million people.
This is a trend we need to get used to because it will be recurrent throughout
this century... in Europe, and also in many other countries. Japan's population
has been shrinking since 2010, South Korea's began to contract in 2020 and
China's population is expected to do the same this year or the next at the latest.
Although there are even experts who point out that this decline has already begun. In fact, it is
expected that by mid-century, China's population will shrink by 12 million people per year.
What can I say? Much of the world has fewer and fewer young people and many more older people.
Now then, wait a minute.... Because this is not the whole story.
We may not be aware of it on a day-to-day basis, but Africa, the continent that has
always been forgotten, is experiencing what some consider to be the greatest demographic
take-off in the history of mankind. This growth, far from slowing down, has
skyrocketed in recent decades and promises to mark a turning point in the very history of mankind.
("This is Africa's century" – Cyril Ramaphosa, President of South Africa)
And, take note because this has only just begun.
The change we are going to tell you about goes much further than you have ever thought possible.
Let's get started.
(HOW AFRICA WILL CHANGE THE WORLD)
In 2018 President Museveni of Uganda opened his state of the nation address by boasting
that Uganda's population had jumped from about 14 million people in 1986 to over
40 million. That’s an annual population growth exceeding 3.5% when the average had been 2.5%
in the 20 years prior to his very long reign as president.
And this has resulted in Uganda having one of the youngest populations in the world.
The average age is just 17 years old. And to illustrate this even further, three quarters
of Ugandans are under 30 years old. A huge reserve.... Ready to have many,
many, many children. Because, VisualPolitik fans,
we are talking about a country where women have an average of five children. This is because, among
other things, the population is very young and they start having children very early. Something
that by the way has not changed despite the fact that infant mortality rates have plummeted.
The result? Uganda's population is growing at a rate of nearly 40% per decade.
And that is not all. In another televised speech, President Museveni himself was very clear:
("Africa has been suffering from underpopulation..... Now we are solving
it. Yoweri Museveni, President of Uganda) You see, despite being the second largest
continent in the world – depending of course on whether we consider the
Americas a single continent – Africa has been responsible for only one-fifth of the
world's population growth since 1950. But now, now all that is changing...
Completely. Culture, religion, even politics, everything, absolutely everything is pronatalist
in Africa. And believe me when I tell you that they've got their act together.
Oh boy, have they ever. Once you realize the scale of it... Well,
let's just say, your head is likely to explode. The world as you know it is going to change
completely over the next few decades. Take a look at this.
In 1914, Africa's population was estimated at just 124 million people. Today there are already 1.34
billion Africans. While the population of Asia multiplied between 3 and 4 times,
the African population multiplied by 11 times.
As a comparison, during the industrial revolution, Europe's population barely doubled. We are
therefore talking about an unprecedented growth in the entire history of mankind.
But that is just the beginning. United Nations estimates suggest that by 2050 the population
of Africa will exceed 2.4 billion people... In other words, if in 1980 one out of every ten
people in the world were African, by the middle of this century, in just a couple of decades,
approximately one in four people on earth will be from this continent.
To give you an idea of what this means, 2.5 billion people is equivalent to the
entire population of the world in 1950. Well, just 100 years later that will be
the population of Africa alone. In fact, right now this continent
is already by far the main driver of population growth in the world.
For example, only eight countries currently have a population growth rate of more than 3%,
which basically means that the population doubles every 20-24 years. Well, they are all in Africa.
Currently only eleven countries have a fertility rate of five or more children. All are in Africa.
Of the 20 countries worldwide whose population will grow the most by 2050,
12 are precisely in this region of the world. In other words: Get used to the fact that
the world you know will depend more and more on this region.And
that's not all. The most incredible thing is that everything indicates that the African population
will continue to grow more and more. And by the end of the century it will be the only one with
relevant growth rates on the entire planet. In 2050 approximately 40% of all births will
take place... Do you know where? Exactly. In 2050, 38 of the 40 countries with the
lowest median age in the world will be..... You know where.
So by the end of the century, then, many experts, including the United Nations,
point out that Africa's population will account for about 40% of the entire
world population. That’s four out of every ten inhabitants. More than four billion people.
And, take note, because if this forecast comes true, it would mean that Africa will
account for more than 90% of the world's population growth between 2020 and 2100.
Can you imagine a world where half of all young people or almost half of the entire
labor force is African? Obviously that would completely change the global reality. The
forgotten continent would become something like the driver of the planet. A young and
thriving society in contrast to the aging societies of today's developed countries.
And that would change everything. Obviously,
talking about the year 2100 is not the same as talking about 2050. Over such a long term,
forecasts may not be reached... But if one thing seems to be crystal clear, it is that
at least one out of every three people in the world will be from this continent.
Take for example the case of Niger – one of the poorest countries in the world and one of the
allies, by the way, of the West in the fight against jihadist infiltration in the Sahel.
In this country, women have an average of more than seven children, which by the way has
increased in recent years. This explains why the average age of the population
in this country is only 15 years old. We are practically talking about a gigantic school.
In just 100 years, between 1950 and 2050, this country will have seen its population
multiply by 25 times, from 2.5 million to more than 60 million inhabitants.
Now, the first question that surely, surely,
crops up for many of you... But, can Africa really hold so many people?
Well, yes, it can. Despite a six-fold increase in population since 1950, Africa remains essentially
an empty continent. Its population density is about 44 people per square kilometer,
less than a third that of China. And, for example, if we exclude
the small island states, only five countries, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, Nigeria and Malawi,
have population densities close to or above 200 people per square kilometer. And to give
you a comparison, South Korea, for example, exceeds 500 and Bangladesh exceeds 1,200.
So, there is plenty of room. But are these forecasts really
reliable? And is this continent not undergoing what is known as the demographic transition,
or have the experts not taken this into account? And perhaps the most important question of all.
What exactly will all this fierce growth, this fierce demographic revolution,
mean for the rest of the world?
Well, let's take a look. (THE ANOMALY OF THE FORGOTTEN CONTINENT)
Europe, Latin America, Asia... Every time a society has modernized and
developed economically, what we know as the demographic transition has taken place:
At first the mortality rate decreases, population growth accelerates,
but then fertility plummets and population growth slows down,
until it practically stops altogether, and even starts to be negative due to the
increasing aging of the population. That is the theory and the experience to this day.
But the truth is that in Africa things look completely different.
Although the mortality rate has plummeted sharply and the life expectancy of the
population has risen sharply, fertility rates in Africa are declining at an abnormally low rate.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, the birth rate has barely dropped from 6.5 births per
woman to 5.4 in the last 20 years. And in some countries it has even increased again. Crazy.
("In some countries [in Africa], fertility has not yet started to decline and this may
not change in the coming years [...] In many others, changes have been limited and hesitant,
while some countries that were well advanced in their fertility transitions have followed
unexpected paths with slower or stagnant fertility transitions." Bruno Schoumaker,
demographer with expertise in Africa) Another example is Egypt, a country that
seemed to be completing the demographic transition but whose fertility rate has gone from 3 children
in 2008 to 3.2 today. A change in the trend that has led the UN to increase its expected population
forecast to 160 million inhabitants by 2050. And in fact, although the demographic transition
is relatively advanced in both North and Southern Africa, their fertility rates remain well above
those of the rest of the world. Practically at levels of more than three children per woman.
But, hold on a moment because what is happening in the central strip of the
continent... That, that is a real explosion. So what on earth is going on in Africa?
Well, the truth is that it is not clear. What is known is that the culture,
governments and religion are more pronatal than anywhere else in the world.
We know, for example, that surveys tell us that African families generally want to
have many children, that they generally start having children very early and that they use
few contraceptives. In Niger, for example,
women dream of having 9 to 10 children, and men no less than 13. In the eleven countries with the
highest population growth on the continent, the first birth is usually in adolescence.
And in Angola, despite the fact that the majority of the population lives in urban
areas and has a relatively high GDP per capita, the fertility rate is still six children.
But okay, now that we know all this, the question is: What exactly is this
change going to mean? Well.... Listen up.
(THE NEW DAWN)
The world is changing so fast that we may not be able to appreciate the changes in full.
For example, did you know that in 2020, for the first time since the 19th century,
the economies of Asia surpassed in size all those of the rest of the world combined?
Well... It’s true. And then the wealthier countries,
particularly those of old Europe, not only face demographic stagnation but
also have increasingly aging populations. For example, it is expected that by 2060 the
population of the European Union will barely account for 5% of the global population. Not
only that, but 30% of the entire European population will be over the age of 65.
In other words, the world will become increasingly more Asian and, above all, much more African.
("Imagine a continent that will have the same population as India and China combined in 2050.
Think of a continent with a growing middle class, rapid urbanization and that will have
the youngest population on the planet in 2050.... Think Africa!" Akinwumi Adesina,
President of the African Development Bank (AfDB)) And of course, if history tells us anything, it is
that young and growing populations have tended to translate sooner or later into
growing economic and political clout. Of course, this also poses enormous
challenges. Currently every year 30 million Africans reach the age of 15,
an age that in this region is considered to be the age of entry into working life. So over the
coming years and decades, Africa will need to generate enormous amounts of employment.
But that's not all. Even if the continent is able to grow,
it is clear that its influence on the rest of the world and the importance of immigration
will increase strongly. Especially in Europe. After all, it is a continent that will soon
have a lot of jobs available as a result of the aging demographic. So do you know what?
It is quite possible that by the middle of this century, Africa will begin to feature much more
prominently on the world's political, economic and communications agenda.
The question is: Are we ready, will it be an easy adaptation, what consequences will Africa's
emergence have for the rest of the world, and should the wealthier countries try to promote
a more open and modern culture in Africa? I am talking, for example, about the integration of
women, the recognition of sexual diversity and the integration of minorities of all kinds.
Well, VisualPolitik fans, these are the big questions that remain to be solved. So
for the moment we invite you to leave your opinions in the comments and open a debate.
And of course, if you found this video interesting, don't forget to
like and subscribe to VisualPolitik. All the best and see you next time.