IT IS NICE BUT FOR THE PARTY IN
POWER NOT ALWAYS A WINNER.
DEMOCRATS FOUND OUT THE HARD WAY
IN 2014.
GET THE READ ON ALL OF THAT, UBS
INVESTORS JIM LECANT.
WE HAVE MACRO STRATEGIST -- BIG
PICTURE, I APOLOGIZE LENORE
HAWKINS.
"DAILY CALLER" FOUND DIGS
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF.
CHRIS BEDFORD.
I WANT TO GET YOUR THOUGHTS,
ESSENTIALLY WHAT LARRY KUDLOW IS
SAYING, HOPING WHAT THE
REPUBLICANS HAVE BEEN PREACHING
THIS IS THE WIND AT ALL OF OUR
POLITICAL BACKS HERE.
IMPROVING ECONOMY.
BETTER THAN EXPECTED NEWS OUT OF
RETAILERS, WALMART INCLUDING
TODAY, THIS IS GOING TO DRIVE UP
THE NUMBERS FOR US THIS FALL.
DO YOU BUY IT?
>> THERE IS SOME TRUTH TO WHAT
HE SAYS BUT IT IS NOT REALLY THE
WHOLE PICTURE.
WE JUST GOT THE BUREAU OF LABOR
STATISTICS REPORT, ON REAL
WEEKLY EARNINGS.
SAW THE REAL AVERAGE WEEKLY
EARNINGS DECLINE .1% OVER LAST
YEAR.
THAT IS NOT MORE MONEY IN YOUR
POCKET FROM PAY.
WHAT THEY BENEFIT FROM IS THE
THE TAXES.
WE DO SEE CONSUMER SENTIMENT IS
MUCH STRONGER.
YOU HAVE BETTER SENTIMENT BUT
TAKE-HOME PAY IS NOT SO GREAT.
FEELING BETTER, YOU WILL TO
SHOPPING.
WHERE WILL YOU GO SHOPPING AT
WALMART, COSTCO, TJ MAXX.
NEIL: WHAT DO YOU THINK OF THAT
ARGUMENT, BETTER THINGS LOOK FOR
SHOPPERS, THE BETTER THINGS LOOK
FOR PARTY IN POWER WHO WANTS THE
SHOPPER?
WELL.
LOOK AT WALMART'S NUMBERS.
THAT SHOWED A VERY, VERY NICE
INCREASE.
IT GOES TO WHAT'S GOING ON IN
THE ECONOMY.
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE STILL
RUNNING AT NEAR ALL-TIME HIGH OR
CONSUMERS.
AND ABSOLUTELY IF YOU'RE
SPENDING MORE MONEY, IT SHOWS
IT IS THE MARKET.
PEOPLE ARE SEEING THEIR 401(k)
BALANCES GO UP.
THEY FEEL A LITTLE BIT MORE
FLUSH.
WE'VE SEEN TAKE-HOME PAY GO UP
BECAUSE OF THE TAX CUTS.
THERE ARE A LOT OF POSITIVE
THINGS GOING ON ECONOMICALLY.
SURE YOU CAN QUIBBLE WITH THE
HOUSING NUMBERS, YOU CAN QUIBBLE
WITH THIS PART OF THE ECONOMY OR
THAT PART OF THE ECONOMY BUT THE
REALITY IS WE'RE OPERATING ON A
MUCH HIGHER LEVEL THAN WE WERE.
PEOPLE STARTED SPENDING MONEY
BEFORE THEIR WAGES WERE ACTUALLY
GOING UP WHICH AGAIN, SHOWS
CONFIDENCE.
SO I THINK WE'RE DOING PRETTY
WELL.
NEIL: THAT'S WHAT A LOT OF
REPUBLICANS ARE HOPING.
CHRIS BEDFORD, I USE THE 2014
EXAMPLE, REAL WAGE GROWTH AT
THAT YEAR-OVER-YEAR, NOT TO THE
DEGREE WE'RE SEEING NOW, I WANT
TO HELP PREFACE THAT.
THERE WAS CARRYOVER WITH THE
CONTROVERSY WITH THE OBAMACARE
AND HEALTH CARE LAW AND
FRUSTRATIONS.
FRUSTRATIONS WITH THE PRESIDENT
PERSONALLY, NOT ON SOME, NOT ALL
VOTERS, I WANT TO SAY THAT THE
ONGOING NOISE ON TRADE AND
EVERYTHING ELSE, HOW DO YOU
THINK IT ALL SORTS OUT?
>> YOU'RE RIGHT TO POINT THIS
OUT.
ELECTIONS, BASES OF PARTY,
ACTIVISTS, PEOPLE MORE INVOLVED
DAY-TO-DAY.
CONSERVATIVES AND LIBERALS.
THE LIBERALS ARE COMPLETELY ON
PRESIDENT TRUMP NO MATTER THE
TAKE-HOME PAY.
CONSERVATIVES ARE MOTIVATED BY
IMMIGRATION, HOT-BUTTON ISSUES
THAT THE SENATE AND HOUSE
PUSHING OFF, HOUSE, SENATE
LEADERSHIP SAYING WE DON'T WANT
ANY TOUGH VOTES ON THIS.
NOW THE PEOPLE ALSO OFTEN DON'T
GIVE THEIR VOTE OUT FOR A GOOD
REPORT CARD.
THEY DON'T SAY THANK YOU BUT
THEY DO PROTECT WHAT THEY HAVE.
THE DEMOCRATS CONTINUE TO SAY
ADDING SEVEN OR EIGHT POINT TO
AMERICANING EARNINGS.
ISSUE REPUBLICANS CAN PLAY UP IF
YOU LIKE THE MONEY IN YOUR
POCKET, VOTE REPUBLICAN OR YOU
WILL LOSE IT.
NEIL: WE SHALL SEE.
LET ME ASK YOU, LENORE WHAT
WITH THE WALMART NEWS CAME OUT
FOR EXAMPLE, THAT CHINA WAS
TALK TRADE.
NOW THEY MIGHT NOT BE THE
HIGHEST LEVEL OFFICIALS BUT IT
IS THE FIRST TIME ANYONE TALKED
TO ANYONE SINCE THE SPRING.
HEARING THAT REBOUNDED.
I'M WONDERING IF THAT IS
FACTORING INTO THIS RALLY, WHAT
DO YOU ANY.
>> DEFINITELY.
THAT IS NOT GOOD FOR ANYONE, FOR
THERE TO BE THIS BIG TRADE WAR
NOW.
CHINA'S ECONOMY BY A LOT OF
MEASURES IS NOT DOING SO GREAT,
WELL, CHINESE LEADERSHIP, THAT
GUY HAS THE JOB FOR LIFE, VERSUS
A REPUBLICAN --
NEIL: YOU'RE RIGHT ABOUT THAT.
>> REPUBLICANS FACING UPCOMING
BEING A MESS BECAUSE DEMOCRATS
WILL MAKE HAY OUT OF HEADLINES
OF AN ONGOING BATTLE.
NEIL: JIM, THE THOUGHT THAT THE
TALKS ARE GOING TO RESUME
DOESN'T MEAN THEY WILL COME TO A
DEAL.
THESE ARE NOT THE HIGHEST LEVEL
TALKS BUT AGAIN TALK AND I'M
WONDERING WHAT WOULD BE DEEMED
SUCCESS FOR THIS, FOR JUST THE
MARKETS?
YOU KNOW, WOULD IT BE JUST GET
THIS OFF THE TABLE AS A PROBLEM,
EVEN THOUGH IT MIGHT NOT BE
IDEAL BUT IT IS BETTER THAN WHAT
WE HAVE, JUST TO REMOVE THIS
UNCERTAINTY, WHAT DO YOU THINK?
>> WELL, A DEAL IS GOING TO GET
DONE AND THE REASON A DEAL IS
GOING TO GET DONE BECAUSE IT IS
IN EVERYBODY'S BEST INTERESTS TO
GET A DEAL DONE.
IN FACT BEHIND THE SCENES IN
CHINA THERE IS A LOT OF REPORTS
NEGOTIATING THIS THING AND
THEY'RE LOSING SOME BUSINESS OUT
TO VIETNAM.
THERE IS A DEAL THAT IS GOING TO
HOW LONG DOES THAT TAKE AND DOES
IT START TO IMPACT OUR ECONOMY?
WE SAW A BIG INCREASE IN THE
NUMBER OF COMPANIES THAT TALKED
ABOUT CONCERNS OVER THE TRADE
WARS IN THEIR EARNINGS REPORTS
AND COULD THAT SHOW UP IN GROWTH
NUMBERS?
IT COULD.
BY THE END OF THIS YEAR WE COULD
UNCERTAINTY AND CONCERNS AND
GOING TO LOOK LIKE.
BUT, BY THE FIRST QUARTER, I DO
THINK A DEAL WILL GET DONE AND
OUR ECONOMY WILL CONTINUE TO
GROW.
IT IS KIND OF A A BARRY BONDS
ECONOMYIT MAY BE ON ARTIFICIAL
STIMULUS BUT IT IS HITTING A LOT
OF HOME RUNS.
NEIL: I SEE WHAT YOU'RE DOING
THERE.
CREST, WE'RE IN AND OUT OF
SESSION HIGHS, UP 401 POINTS
RIGHT NOW.
BOEING AND CATERPILLAR, THINK
ABOUT IT, BIG PLAYERS IN THE
OBVIOUSLY WALMART IS
CONTRIBUTING A GOOD CHUNK OF
THAT AS WELL BUT THERE IS
OPTIMISM THAT A TRADE DEAL CAN
BE STRUCK.
HOW IMPORTANT IS IT?
I KNOW THAT WITH THESE TRADE
DEALS SMART GUYS LIKE YOU PICK
THEM APART, WHAT DO WE GET OUT
OF IT, WHAT THE CHINESE GET OUT
OF IT, BUT I DON'T THINK THEY
HAVE TO BE OFF THE CHARTS GREAT
TRICK WHAT DO YOU THINK?
>> IF YOU TRY TO DO THE BIG,
MASSIVE DEALS, THESE THINGS,
COMPREHENSIVE IMMIGRATION
REFORM, COMPREHENSIVE TRADE
IN OUR LIFETIME BECAUSE YOU WILL
NOT GET EVERYONE IN THE TABLE TO
THAT.
NEIL: THAT IS ALMOST AS GOOD AS
THE BEAR BY BONDS ANALOGY.
>> WE'RE ON A ROLL TODAY.
NEIL: WE'RE ON A ROLL.
>> CHINA IS A THREAT TO AMERICA.
NEIL: NO DOUBT.
LENORE, SAY THE TALKS FALL
APART, ONCE AGAIN THE ACRIMONY
AND CHARGES BACK AND FORTH ENSUE
AND WE DON'T GET ANYTHING BEFORE
THE MIDTERMS, NOT THAT THAT
THINK?
>> I THINK THESE ELECTIONS WILL
BE VERY DIFFERENT THAN WHAT
WE'VE BEEN SEEING IN THE PAST.
RECENT PUGH RESEARCH REPORT,
AMERICANS USED TO BE MORE
CENTRIST.
YOU WERE WILLING TO WORK WITH
THE OTHER SIDE YOU GOT ELECTED.
WITH THE OTHER SIDE THAT PERSON
HAS MUCH TOUGHER TIME TO GET
ELECTED.
GAMES TODAY.