TRUMP IN BUT WE’RE EXPECTING A
NEW DUMP OF VOTES IN COUNTIES
THAT SHOULD TREND TOWARD JOE
BIDEN.
LET’S GET OVER TO STEVE KORNACKI
OVER AT THE BIG BOARD.
GOOD EVENING, GOOD MORNING, I
DON’T KNOW WHAT IT IS FOR YOU.
TAKE US TO PENNSYLVANIA.
WHAT IS IT LOOKING RIGHT NOW?
>> 18,229 IS TRUMP’S LEAD
STATEWIDE.
WHERE ARE THE OUTSTANDING VOTES
IN PENNSYLVANIA?
THEY’RE ALL MAIL BALLOTS THAT
ARE BEING COUNTED.
ABSENTEE BALLOTS.
SO WHERE ARE THEY?
PHILADELPHIA, THE CITY OF
PHILADELPHIA, THERE ARE ABOUT
54,000 THERE THAT WE’RE WAITING
ON.
PITTSBURGH, THERE ARE ABOUT
35,000 THERE.
THOSE ARE THE TWO BIGGEST ONES
IN THE STATE.
BUT THERE ARE A COUPLE OF OTHER
SIGNIFICANT BATCHES AROUND
ALLENTOWN, IN LEHIGH COUNTY.
THERE’S ABOUT 10,000 THERE IN
BUCKS COUNTY THERE’S ABOUT
10,000.
THERE’S A LITTLE UNDER 10,000,
BUT STILL A SIGNIFICANT MARGIN
AMOUNT OF THEM IN DELAWARE
COUNTY RIGHT OUTSIDE
PHILADELPHIA.
THEN THERE ARE JUST A NUMBER OF
COUNTIES THROUGHOUT THE STATE
WITH A SMALL NUMBER, 2,000 HERE,
3,000 THERE.
BUT I THINK THE MOST IMPORTANT
THING TO KNOW ABOUT ALL OF THESE
BALLOTS, WHATEVER COUNTY WE’RE
TALKING ABOUT, JOE BIDEN’S
WINNING THEM THAT’S JUST BEEN
THE CLEAR PATTERN.
EVERY SINGLE COUNTY, NO MATTER
HOW RED, NO MATTER HOW RED, NO
MATTER HOW BLUE, JOE BIDEN HAS
BEEN ON AVERAGE WINNING THE
MAIL-IN VOTE IN PENNSYLVANIA,
HE’S GETTING 75% FOR ALL OF THE
MAIL-IN VOTES.
IF YOU ADD THEM UP CUMULATIVELY,
THERE ARE ABOUT 160,000
UNCOUNTED MAIL BALLOTS IN THE
ENTIRE STATE OF PENNSYLVANIA
RIGHT NOW.
YOU CAN DO THE MATH.
DONALD TRUMP LEADS BY 18,000
STATEWIDE RIGHT NOW.
ON AVERAGE, BIDEN’S WINNING THE
MAIL-IN VOTE, HE’S WINNING
THREE-QUARTERS OF IT.
THREE-QUARTERS OF 160,000 THAT
COULD NET BIDEN 80,000 VOTES AT
THAT PACE AND THAT WOULD GIVE
HIM A SIZABLE LEAD STATEWIDE.
I CAN’T STRESS THIS ENOUGH
THOUGH.
THERE HAS BEEN NO VARIANCE TO
THIS PATTERN FROM COUNTY TO
COUNTY.
EVERY SINGLE COUNTY WHERE WE
HAVE GOTTEN MAIL-IN VOTE, BIDEN
HAS BEEN LEADING THAT MAIL-IN
VOTE.
WHY IS THIS?
BECAUSE IN PENNSYLVANIA, YOU HAD
TWO OPTIONS IF YOU WANTED TO
VOTE.
YOU COULD VOTE BY MAIL OR YOU
COULD GO IN AND YOU COULD VOTE
IN PERSON ON ELECTION DAY.
THEY DIDN’T HAVE THE EARLY
VOTING CENTERS IN PENNSYLVANIA
THAT THEY HAD IN OTHER STATES.
WE SAW THIS IN POLLS THE MONTH
BEFORE THE ELECTION, WE ASKED A
POLL OF PENNSYLVANIA VOTERS ARE
YOU VOTING EARLY, YES I AM.
WHO ARE YOU VOTING FOR?
IT WOULD COME BACK 79-16 FOR
BIDEN.
THE FOLKS WHO CHOSE TO VOTE BY
MAIL LARGELY DEMOCRATS.
THE FOLKS WHO VOTED ON ELECTION
DAY, DISPROPORTIONATELY
REPUBLICANS.
IN MANY OF THE COUNTIES THEY
WAITED UNTIL TO GET TO THE
MAIL-IN VOTES THAT’S WHAT’S
COMING IN NOW.
MAIL IN BALLOTS, SO THE TREND IS
VERY CLEAR HERE IN PENNSYLVANIA.
I SHOULD NOTE AS WELL,
PHILADELPHIA IS THE ONLY PLACE
IN PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THEY
STAYED UP ALL NIGHT COUNTING
THESE BALLOTS.
IT HAS BEEN SEVERAL HOURS.
I THINK ABOUT FOUR HOURS, FIVE
HOURS, I LOST TRACK OF THE TIME
OVERNIGHT BUT A NUMBER OF HOURS
SINCE WE HAD AN UPDATE IN
PHILADELPHIA.
I THINK WE’RE LIKELY TO GET ONE
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
AND AGAIN, I DON’T KNOW THE SIZE
OF IT.
BUT WHEN YOU SEE THE NUMBER OF
VOTES OUT THERE, THAT NEXT
UPDATE FROM PHILADELPHIA COULD
BE VERY SIGNIFICANT.
>> WELL, STEVE, I WANT TO
UNDERLINE SOMETHING THAT YOU
SAID IT’S WHAT I WAS SAYING
ABOUT FLORIDA, WHEN PEOPLE SAID
IT WAS A FOUR, FIVE, SIX, SEVEN
POINT BASE FOR BIDEN.
IT WASN’T BASED ON DATA.
I’M NOT SURE WHAT THE POLLS WERE
SHOWING, BUT IN PENNSYLVANIA.
IT’S THE SAME THING I WAS
LOOKING AT.
I WAS LOOKING AT DATA THAT HAD
ALREADY COME IN AND I SAW THE
WAY IT WAS TRACKING DAY TO DAY
TO DAY IN FLORIDA.
WHEN I SAID JOE BIDEN WASN’T
GOING TO WIN THAT STATE BY MORE
THAN 100,000 VOTES AND MORE
LIKELY IT WAS DIPPING DONALD
TRUMP’S WAY, THAT WAS BASED ON
DATA.
NOT PREELECTION POLLS.
WHAT YOU’RE LOOKING AT NOW,
BASED ON DATA, BASED ON TRENDS.
YOU KNOW, THREE DAYS, TWO DAYS
AGO, I DIDN’T KNOW IF HE COULD
CATCH UP, BUT LIKE YOU SAID,
WHEN IN THE REDDEST OF RED
COUNTIES JOE BIDEN WAS GETTING
75% OF THE MAIL-IN VOTES OR
OVERPERFORMING IN THE REDDEST OF
THE RED COUNTIES THAT CHANGED
EVERYTHING.
SO IF WE’RE LOOKING RIGHT NOW --
I JUST WANT PEOPLE TO KNOW AT
HOME.
NO CHEERLEADING HERE.
NOT REALLY A LOT OF SPECULATION.
AGAIN, THIS IS THE DATA THAT LED
ME TO SAY THE PREELECTION POLLS
WERE GARBAGE.
IT’S THE DATA, STEVE, THAT YOU
STUDY EVERY SINGLE DAY AND THAT
DATA IS SHOWING VERY CLEARLY
THAT IF YOU ARE GOING TO
COUNTIES THAT HAVE THE MOST OF
THESE VOTES REMAINING, COUNTIES
THAT DONALD TRUMP LOST
OVERWHELMINGLY, AND THEN YOU ADD
THE FACT THAT THEY’RE MAIL-IN
BALLOTS JUST THE OVERWHELMING
ODDS ARE YOU ARE RIGHT THAT JOE
BIDEN IS LIKELY GOING TO WIN THE
STATE OF PENNSYLVANIA IF THESE
TRENDS HOLD AND THERE’S NO
REASON TO NOT BELIEVE THE TRENDS
ARE GOING TO HOLD FOR THE SAME
REASON HE’S GOING TO WIN THE
STATE, PROBABLY MORE THAN 40,000
THAN DONALD TRUMP WON IT FOUR
YEARS AGO.
>> I’LL GIVE YOU AN EXAMPLE OF
WHAT YOU’RE DESCRIBING HERE.
HERE’S CARBON COUNTY, THIS IS A
BIG TRUMP COUNTY.
LOOK, TRUMP IS GOING TO WIN IT
BY 32 POINTS, OKAY.
BIG RED COUNTY NO SURPRISE.
DO YOU KNOW WHAT THE MAIL-IN
VOTE PORTION OF THIS WAS?
BIDEN GOT 63%.
SO IT’S NO LIKE WE SAY BIDEN IS
DOING WELL IN THE MAIL VOTE IN
THE RED COUNTIES.
NOT LIKE YOU CAN GET THE OVERALL
RESULT FROM THE COUNTY, IT’S A
SHOCKING RESULT WHERE BIDEN IS
WINNING RED COUNTIES.
THE RELATIVELY SMALL SHARE OF
THE DEMOCRATIC VOTE WAS HIGHLY
CONCENTRATED AMONG THE MAIL PLAT
BALLOTS AND IT WAS DEEPLY RED,
BUT IT WAS MISSING A BUNCH OF
DEMOCRATIC VOTES AND THAT’S
BEING FILLED IN ACROSS THE STATE
RIGHT NOW.
THE BIGGEST VARIABLE, I SHOULD
ADD THIS THOUGH WHEN WE PUT THE
160,000 VOTE NUMBER OUT THERE IN
TERMS OF THE UNCOUNTED MAIL-IN
BALLOTS, ONE OTHER PATTERN THAT
WE ARE SEEING HERE ACROSS THE
STATE IS WHEN THEY COUNT THESE
UP, IT WOULD APPEAR THIS WOULD
BE MY CONJECTURE HERE, BUT IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT THEY DON’T --
THEY’RE NOT GETTING DOWN TO ZERO
IN A LOT OF THE COUNTIES BECAUSE
I BELIEVE THIS IS THE PROCESS.
THEY ARE VERIFYING, MATCHING SIGNATURES, OPENING THESE FOR
SIGNATURES, OPENING THESE FOR
THE FIRST TIME AND THERE’S A
CERTAIN NUMBER IN EVERY COUNTY
THAT ARE NOT GETTING COUNTED.
PROBABLY SOME TECHNICAL ISSUES,
SIGNATURES NOT MATCHING.
THAT SORT OF THING.
THERE’S LESS THAN 160,000 THAT
GET ADDED TO THE COUNT, MAYBE
130,000, 140,000, BUT EVEN AT
THAT RATE, BIDEN STILL EASILY
MOVES PAST TRUMP’S LEAD
STATEWIDE AND MOVES INTO THE
CONSIDERABLE LEAD OF HIS OWN.
LIKE YOU SAY, IT WOULD HAVE TO