What is a catalyst for gold and silver to move higher?
Well, I think the obvious one is when the FED pivots.
Everyone knows that or even begins to Pivot.
Chairman Powell.
Just spoke this morning.
I think he struck a more hawkish tone than many were anticipating
maybe including myself as well, but you know what they say and what
they do, You are going to do are often two very different things.
Remember?
These are the same people who were saying inflation is transitory just
a few months ago and they can change what they're saying on a dime.
So you know he's saying things like, you know, and are we're going to
fight inflation at all costs.
I don't think that's the exact words he used, but that's the kind of
message he was trying to convey.
Well, are you going to do that?
If the stock market is down 30-40 percent, and real estate continues
to decline and, you know, interest rates, continue to rise and I think
Sort of those probably know.
And that's the big next big Catalyst for silver and gold.
Well, it's hard to predict what the exact catalyst is going to be.
It could be any of those things you said, or it could be something out
of left field, kind of like a Black Swan event.
But one thing I know is there the FED is always reactive not
proactive, and they tend to wait until people are begging for it.
They want that monetary, you know, heroin so to speak.
And, you know, you'll see, when you see free market capitalist,
supposedly free market capitalist and people on the right.
Right who, you know, rail against government intervention.
Well, they're going to when things get bad enough, they beg for it,
they beg for the stimulus checks just like they did back in March of
2020.
So, you know, how long are they going to?
Wait, I don't know, but I know that they, well, I have a high level of
confidence that they're going to Pivot and you know history suggests
that's what they always do.
They always debase the currency that's just what always happens and
despite what they say they're going to do.
Yeah, I think, you know, everyone wants to talk about boosting asset
prices.
You know, stocks real estate, all these things, interest rates, and
that's true.
But here's, I think the biggest reason they absolutely have to and
that's to fund government spending.
We're running trillion-dollar-plus deficits in perpetuity who is going
to fund that those deficits?
Especially at artificially low interest rates?
China is stepping back.
Saudi Arabia.
Stepping back.
You know you've got all these big buyers stepping back in.
The FED is always the buyer of Last Resort.
Someone is going to have to fund those deficits otherwise.
The alternative It is, we do actual austerity here which I can all,
but guarantee that's not going to happen, you know, there's no way
these politicians are going to tell Grandma and Grandpa.
Hey sorry, you know, Social Security is going to be cut all these
unfunded contingent liability.
Sorry, we can't afford it.
So, you know, they're going to continue to debate debase the currency.
The FED is going to step in and prop up markets and you know, be the
buyer of Last Resort at these treasury.
Auctions.
Well it if you believe the name then yeah sure.
We don't have anything to worry about, but unfortunately the name of
these acts always has the exact opposite of the desired effect.
The department of energy was created to reduce oil prices.
What would have oil prices done since then the government did went on
the War on Drugs?
Well, what's happened with that drug?
Use has spiraled out of control of the war on poverty, more people are
poorer than ever.
So whatever they do, you know, the Patriot Act is another one, most
unpatriotic that act we probably ever had so it just always does have
the exact opposite of the effect that the name implies.
Eyes.
But what is inflation?
Inflation is an increase in the money supply.
That is the definition of inflation and government spending is
inflationary.
That's what this act does.
It increases government spending and they say oh yeah, well we're
going to offset it with tax increases that math doesn't work and you
know and they also say we're going to hire all these IRS agents within
give them guns and they're going to go around collecting, you know
people who are cheating on their taxes and that's going to pay for
these.
Things.
I highly doubt that in the short-term short-term predictions are
really hard but I'm highly confident as we've been saying for over
well over a year.
Now we think the trend is going to be inflationary with deflationary
impulses along the way.
So we're probably due for a just a sharp deflationary impulse where
things really sell off sharp and that would probably be a catalyst for
the FED to Pivot but you know, as far as changing and fixing the
system, unfortunately I think we're kind of beyond that, you know, I
try and focus on things that we Can control.
And that's, you know, preparing for, you know, volatility and, you
know, kind of Crisis really in the markets financial markets and, you
know, all the things that we've talked about in the past.
But, you know, I think so with silver and gold were probably much
closer to a bottom than any kind of top.
I mean, downside risk seems minimal relative to upside potential,
especially in silver.
What is a catalyst for gold and silver to move higher.
Well, I think the obvious one is when the FED pivots.
Everyone knows that or even begins to Pivot and people Define pivot as
a different than that.
Can mean a lot of different things to different people and to some
people, that means well when they go to full on money Printing and
quantitative easing and cutting and cutting interest rates again.
Yeah, that's coming.
But I wouldn't necessarily Define that as a pivot.
In other words I don't think we have to wait that long.
I think, once they just reduce the pace of their interest rate hikes
and start to signal that the Kind of over the hump and they're going
to eventually start, you know, lowering rates again.
I think that's would be the pivot to me because that's where they're
pivoting, the trend, or the trajectory of their policy decisions.
And, you know, I think a decent, a good estimate for a time frame.
It would be October November, but, you know, that could be off by a
month or two in either direction or maybe even a three or four months.
I think that's somewhere around.
There is when that starts to happen, like you said, if I were pulling
the Exile, were running for re-election and I were you.
Versus Democrat.
I would probably want to get it.
My goal would be to get his inflation is low.
As I can, you know, asset prices suffer in the meantime and then kind
of pivot into those elections.
So that asset prices maybe start to rebound and you can see that way
you can claim victory on inflation and the trend would be back up in
assets, but that's pure speculation on my part, as we've talked about
many times, you know, silver and gold.
I think is a key part of the plan, but it's not the Panacea.
It's not the all-encompassing solution trying to develop multiple
streams of income is Being resilient but I think, you know,
eliminating Consumer Debt.
You're changing your lifestyle decisions to prioritize, what really
matters to you and you're spending in the lineup, put your spending in
alignment with your values.
Things like that.
I think the the core the key word is resilience, you know, I think
we're going to need to be resilient for what's coming in the next few
years.