On 7 October 2001, the United States led by then president, George W. Bush,
and with the support of British troops, began the invasion of Afghanistan. It
was a direct response to the attacks against the Twin Towers on September 11.
In just a few weeks the Taliban were ousted from power, their leader Mullah Omar had to take refuge
in the mountains and the organization led by Bin Laden, Al Qaeda, suffered a severe blow.
However, almost 20 years later, and after more than 7,000 casualties of soldiers and contractors
from the United States and other NATO countries; After more than 70,000 casualties suffered
by the Afghan army and police; and after an expenditure of more than $2 trillion dollars,
the war came to an end. Of course, no one could have
imagined the outcome of the longest war in the history of the United States of America.
After a titanic effort, the Taliban regained power and the Americans faced
a painful withdrawal characterised by chaos, haste and even Jihadist attacks by ISIS.
[So there goes 20 years down the drain] In a past video, here on VisualPolitik,
we looked at the key factors that explained the rapid fall of the
Republic of Afghanistan to the Taliban forces. However, we left many questions unanswered.
For example, how on earth did the Taliban manage to resist the onslaught of the great American
power, what are their links to international terrorism And perhaps the most important question
of all: What future does Afghanistan now face? What will the Taliban government look like?
Well, in this second video in the Afghanistan trilogy we're going to answer all these questions.
Although those of you who support us on Patreon have already received some keynotes
in our exclusive Weekly Snapshot. Thank you very much by the way for all your support.
Now the first thing, the fundamental thing to understand first of all is who exactly
the Taliban are. Listen up.
(POLITICS IN RELIGIOUS FUNDAMENTALISM)
The Taliban originated in the early 1990s. After the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan
in 1989, the warlords who had been supported by the United States took de facto power.
The result was an accumulation of infighting, massive corruption and
the emergence of political strongmen. The country even descended into civil
war for control of power. That was the window of opportunity for the Taliban:
A group of religious fanatics, led by Mullah Omar promised to end anarchy and impose Islamic
values. In 1996 they achieved their goal: to enter Kabul and take control of the country.
After their arrival in Kabul they proclaimed an Islamic Emirate and imposed on Afghanistan one
of the strictest and most insane religious dictatorships in history. Punishments were
inhumane, minorities were massacred and women were effectively no longer considered human beings.
Terrible. Of course,
as you all know, they also harbored terrorist groups like Al Qaeda, which is why the United
States invaded the country in 2001 in response to the attack on the Twin Towers.
The Taliban are a radical religious-military group. An organization led by fanatics who
have not hesitated to use any weapon at their disposal, including cruel attacks.
However, in 2014 there was a certain shift. The then Taliban leader, Mullah Mansour, argued that
the group also had to take on a political strategy and win popular support not through fear but
through management and control of corruption. From that moment on, the Taliban opened an
office in Doha to facilitate international negotiations, began to be concerned about
the management of public services and to persecute corrupt officials.
For example, they made sure that doctors who were paid by the Afghan government went to work
in the public hospital instead of being paid and working exclusively in private clinics.
They also included Tajiks and Uzbeks in the Taliban leadership council to
extend their influence beyond the Pashtun areas.
It was all a strategy that allowed them to gain a lot of popular support. And as we have seen,
the strategy was a success. [Sure, let’s take a moment.
Make no mistake. Strategy is one thing, their goal is quite another.
When Mansour fell in 2016 after a US drone strike, the group named this guy supreme leader,
A guy so radical that he not only advocates self-sacrifice but he even encouraged his
own son to become a "martyr". He sacrificed himself at the age of 23].
But, now that we know them better, there are questions we have to answer. For example,
after 20 years of war: How did they survive? Which basically amounts to asking,
how on earth did the Taliban finance all their activity? Well, pay attention,
because it seems to me that the answer to this question is not going to leave you indifferent.
(THE COLOMBIA OF OPIUM)
You may not get that impression at first glance, but the truth is that over the
past few years the Taliban have become perhaps the best-funded insurgent group in the world.
To give you an idea, according to United Nations estimates, before taking power,
the Taliban had an income of between $300 million and $1.6 billion dollars a year. And
it is not only the United Nations, most sources point to incomes that each year
exceeded the threshold of one billion dollars. [Come on, they’re no amateurs. We're talking
about a real fighting force. A well-funded, well-trained, well-structured organization.]
Now, the question, the big question we can all ask ourselves is, where
on earth did the Taliban get the money? Well essentially from a huge catalogue of
criminal activities such as narcotics, extortion and illegal mining. And then
along with that, donations from countries like Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
But of all of them, narcotics took the cake. And the fact is that,
there’s no other way to say it, Afghanistan is to opium what Colombia is to white powder.
According to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Afghanistan produces almost 90%
of the world's opium, the key substance for the production of heroin. Afghanistan has thus become
one of the most significant narco-states on the planet, a nerve centre supplying a
large number of the world's narcotics markets. Not only that, but in recent years the industry
has begun to diversify. In addition to opium, they have begun using ephedra,
a plant that grows all over the country to make ephedrine and methamphetamine,
two compounds that are far more lucrative than opium and that counter-narcotics officials in
the now-defunct Afghan government called "a coming catastrophe” for the world.Well,
the fact is that the Taliban get their share of this lucrative illegal industry. It is
estimated to be at least 10% of the total revenue. Precisely for this reason, it is
no surprise that the three main opium-producing provinces of Helmand, Kandahar and Uruzgan are
Taliban strongholds.And, take note, because we are not talking about pocket money.
Exports of opium, its derivatives and methamphetamines are the largest export and
the largest productive activity in the country. In fact, Afghanistan's narcotics-related exports
far exceed all other exports combined. We are talking about figures that would far
exceed $3 billion per year according to existing estimates. Therefore,
the Taliban empire would have been receiving between $300 and $500 million every year.
("Opium cultivation and heroin production is more dangerous than the Soviet invasion and
attack on our country. It is more dangerous than the factional fighting in Afghanistan.
It is more dangerous than terrorism. Hamid Karzai, former president of Afghanistan.)
[What is perhaps more paradoxical is that, despite being a source
of financing for the Taliban, the area dedicated to poppy plantations,
from which opium is extracted, has not stopped growing. And yet the expansion has happened at
the same time that Americans have spent more than $9 billion trying to tackle the problem.
Nine billion dollars that have served absolutely no purpose, because since the invasion of the
United States, when by the way, the Taliban themselves had forbidden its cultivation,
the size of the plantations has multiplied by no less than 40].
But narcotics were far from the Taliban's only source of income.
Mining has been another important source of funding. According to information gathered by
the UN, in 2020 the Taliban were able to earn some $400 million dollars from taxes on illegal mines.
An amount that coincides with many independent estimates and far exceeds what the Afghan
government itself collected from this sector. In fact, the Taliban made it a priority to secure
control of the regions richest in minerals as soon as possible in order to secure this
important source of financing. From lapis lazuli mines in northern Badakhshan to gold,
lead and zinc mines in Helmand or talc and marble mines in southern Nangarhar. The
Taliban issued mining licences, controlled transport and even organised the workforce.
And along with narcotics and mining, tolls on highways and border crossings
were another very important source of income. And so, that's how the Taliban built a criminal
empire that gave them enough resources to fund their 70,000 to 100,000-man army, buy supplies,
buy weapons, buy Afghan officials. And that's how they finally won the war.
But now that we know how they survived and given that they are back in power, the question,
the key question is: what exactly are their ties to international terrorism?
Listen up. (FROM FACTION TO FACTION)
Let's see, the United States and NATO invaded Afghanistan almost 20 years ago precisely
because of the Taliban's harboring of the terrorist organization Al Qaeda.
And with the Taliban back in power, we could come to think that it's back to square one.
("All Al Qaeda supporters are celebrating the developments. It's a victory over the United
States, which is what they hope to achieve [...] A lot of groups will piggyback on this victory
in propaganda terms: if the Taliban can do it, you can do it". - Peter Neumann, professor of
security studies at King's College London). However, if the agreement with the Taliban
reached by the Trump Administration and then taken up by the Administration has made anything
clear it’s that in exchange for all the moves we have seen with the fall of Afghanistan,
the Taliban are committed to preventing terrorist groups from using Afghanistan
as a center of operations and safe haven. The question is, can the Taliban be trusted?
Well, here there are opinions for all tastes. There are analysts who think that the Taliban
have learned their lesson and that they will not be willing to risk their power
for organizations like Al Qaeda. Others take it for granted that this group and
others like it will be revitalized because the Taliban simply will not go after them.
And, pay attention because... You know what? US Secretary of Defense Lloyd
Austin himself testified in the Senate that the risk of this happening is significant.
For the time being, a report to the United Nations Security Council in
May 2021 indicated that Al-Qaeda is present in at least 15 Afghan provinces and that it
continues to maintain close contact with the Taliban, although they have kept a low profile
so as not to torpedo the Doha agreement. According to the same report,
religious affinity, family relations through marriages between the two groups and years of
fighting together mean that the ties between the Taliban and Al Qaeda are still strong.
Yet Al-Qaeda may be the least of our worries. The organization is very weakened, according to
a report by the US Department of Defense it is basically focused on survival and, in addition,
its leader, al Zawahiri, seems to be ill. Today the biggest threat to the international
community seems to come from what is known as ISIS-K, the Islamic State Khorasan Province,
the faction of ISIS that was responsible for the horrific terrorist attack at Kabul Airport.
(Carnage at Kabul airport: 13 American soldiers,
more than 100 dead. News.com.au) The point is that in principle, ISIS-K
is a rival group to the Taliban. In fact, when the Taliban came to Kabul, when they took control of
the prison, look at what they did next: (Taliban executes former IS-K chief
a year after Afghan govt jailed him. The Week) ISIS-K came to the country in 2015 and gained
devotees among disgruntled Taliban. Let's say it presents itself as a
more fundamentalist alternative to the Taliban. Which is saying something.
And of course they try to achieve the highest level of violence possible: attacks on schools,
hospitals and all kinds of extreme barbarities. In fact, both the United
States and the rest of the international community, including Russia and China see
them as a danger, the real danger in Afghanistan. Well, the fact is that they are a rival group for
the Taliban, which is why they are practically at war and have clashed on numerous occasions.
But are they really so far apart? ("The Taliban Are Far Closer to the
Islamic State Than They Claim". Sajjan M. Gohel, the international security director
at the Asia-Pacific Foundation in Foreign Policy) And take note,
because this is not an isolated opinion. And this is when we come to the Haqqani Network.
The Haqqani Network is the most radical, violent and militarily better-prepared
branch of the Taliban. Something like the Praetorian Guard of the new Islamic Emirate.
("I do not believe that anyone in the West fully understands the reach of the Haqqani network. It
is the single most impressive non-state terrorist group I've seen, with the exception of ISIS
in the first two years of the caliphate." Michael K. Nagata, retired US Army Lieutenant
General and former director of strategy at the National Counterterrorism Center).
Well, this Haqqani Network, unlike the Taliban, is considered by the
United States as a terrorist group. And no wonder, this organization among
many other actions has been responsible for terrible attacks that have cost the lives of
hundreds and hundreds of US soldiers, citizens of allied countries and the Afghan army.
Well, there are indications that this Haqqani Network has indeed collaborated
and is collaborating with ISIS-K, to whom it would provide technical
assistance in exchange for pursuing joint objectives. And, beware, because for many,
the Kabul airport bombing itself indirectly benefited the Taliban and the Haqqani Network.
And yes, the Haqqani Network is the organization that is in charge of security in Kabul
and had the airport surrounded. So that's the way things stand.
The United States hope for preventing Afghanistan from turning into an absolute
and total debacle is that the Taliban keep their word. After all, they are the ones in power.
So, what do you think the new Taliban state will be like? What
can we expect? Listen up.
(A NEW TALIBAN STATE?) Okay, the Taliban have won. They have
won a landslide victory and almost 20 years after the American invasion they are back in power.
But... So much for their days of celebration. Because the truth is
that now they face a complicated scenario. It is true that they seem to have come
in with more popularity than they had when they were kicked out, in part because of the extreme
corruption of the government and institutions of the Republic of Afghanistan, but they are
still going to have a tough time. The Taliban now face a scenario
of economic crisis, factional fighting and possible pockets of resistance.
Remember that the Afghan government was terribly dependent on international aid. More than 75%
of government spending came from donations from other countries that have now been suspended.
What’s more, the brain drain caused by citizens fleeing from the Taliban
and many of their draconian measures – such as keeping women out of the
labour market – promises to cause a lot of problems. In addition,
they have also promised a war on opium, a product on which they have so far financed themselves.
The problem is that not only will that take a lot of resources away from local Taliban leaders, but
it could also fuel pockets of violence between the traffickers and hundreds and hundreds of thousands
of Afghans who basically live off that trade. And all of that is a perfect cocktail for conflict.
In theory it is expected that the Taliban will place a 12-man council at the top to govern
Afghanistan, below this body, a more technocratic government and then a kind of Revolutionary Guard
formed by the Haqqani Network. In other words, the system could resemble the one established in Iran.
In any case we cannot forget that we are talking about a radical and fundamentalist
group. Many media have speculated that this time they will be more moderate,
but whatever the case, what we can expect is nothing short of a very, very radical government.
In Afghanistan, a very strict interpretation of Sharia law will be applied, women will be
de facto expelled from public life and many will lose their position in terms
of civil rights or professional status. In fact, in many provinces, restrictions
on women's work, public presence, education and even access to health
care are already being reinstated. (Radio and television broadcasts
of women's music and voices banned in Kandahar. Pajhwok, afghan news)
The Taliban ruling Afghanistan may be the lesser evil for the United States,
but it is still a tragedy. Even more so if we take into account that it has broken the
tendency of Muslim countries to moderate and reject fundamentalist movements.
And that is provided that they keep their word about not tolerating terrorist organisations.
If that does not happen, then the disaster will be total and absolute.
So what can I say? At the moment their word about general amnesty
and not persecuting their enemies has more holes in it than a Swiss cheese. Because
there have already been numerous cases of murder, torture and persecution against their opponents.
Terrible. But... Having got to this point, it's your turn:
Do you think the Taliban will keep their word and crack down on terrorism in Afghanistan? Do you
think they will be less radical? What position should the international community take now?
Leave us your answer in the comments and if you found this video interesting,
please like it. For our part, we are already preparing the third
installment of this trilogy where we will talk about China, Russia and the
future potential of the country. See you soon on VisualPolitik.