Iran's state news is reporting
Iranian officials
now know the exact location
of a helicopter
that crashed with the country's
president, Abraham Raisi, on board.
Cold temperatures, fog and nightfall
have all made it
challenging for search crews
who have been at it now for 10 hours.
For more
now on this development,
I'm joined now by CNN
senior national security analyst
Juliette Kayyem, and Jon Alterman,
director of the Center
for Strategic and International Studies
Middle East Program.
Good to see both of you.
All right, John, you first.
I mean,
this seems to be
a pretty sizable development,
but the terrain
is still going to be a challenge.
What do we know about this area,
How mountaineers, medics, search teams
will be utilized
is pretty remote.
It's all the way tucked into the upper
left hand corner of Iran near
the Azerbaijan border.
There aren't a lot of people.
The home
province has about 50,000 people,
so there's not a lot of infrastructure.
There aren't a lot of people to help out
in advantage for the government
is that means there aren't
a lot of pesky eyes looking around
if they want to hold news in.
They want to control the news.
It's much easier
in a place like this location
than if it happened
in a more populated area
or be much harder to control the news.
Hmm.
And Juliette,
our Oren Liebermann reported
that the US
is monitoring the situation
but has to maintain a distance.
What are the risks?
Oh, we don't want to be any part of this.
If this was
the result of, you know, the wind
and the fog and
and a risky helicopter ride,
I mean, in other words,
the tensions are so high
that we need to de-escalate.
There are going to be rumors
about how this happened.
And the United States cannot be seen
as saying the wrong thing at all.
Engaged, I will say.
So they're monitoring it.
They are.
I know the E.U.
and other entities
have been helping with surveillance
for the Iranians
to try to find the helicopter.
The news that we just got
and the third
and I think most important thing,
at least at this stage,
is to remain quiet so that
whatever is going to unfold
can be de-escalated is interesting to me.
And I'd be curious, Jonathan,
that the Iranians
have really
sort of leaned forward on the fog
and the weather,
that there's not a lot of sort of state
sponsored conspiracy theories
about what this is.
And that strikes me
as as as good
for the overall tensions in the area.
And, John,
I mean, all day,
you know, over the last 10 hours
or so, Iran's
supreme leader
has asked the country to pray,
while also saying
there will be no interruption
in government business.
So speak to the cultural significance
of saying those things.
Well, I mean, the reality is
that the president of Iran
has much less power
than the supreme leader.
The supreme leader,
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is 85,
really has all the coercive elements
of the state under his control,
where you see he serves him
as does the foreign minister,
who's also on the plane,
Hossein Amir Abdullah, here.
And
what I think is really significant here
is that first year
of a very unpopular government.
The last I heard from a Western investor,
Iran is maybe 10% of the population
supports the government.
But with Khamenei
85 and reportedly ailing,
Raisi was thought as a potential person
who power would go to.
So he was not powerful
but could inherit power
if he's not able to inherit power.
You could see some shifts
within the Iranian power structure.
You could see people
trying to move to seize power.
I think I agree with Juliet.
You don't want to make it seem like
this was a U.S. plot.
But I think you also, from a U.S.
government perspective,
have to be aware that this may be a week,
two weeks and months
where things are starting to shift
and there are opportunities
for things to
to capitalize on changes in Iran
that will lead to greater security
in Iran and in the region.
And, Juliet, you touched on this.
You know, the Iranian government,
I mean, known for trying
to control the messaging.
John,
I hear you loud and clear
when you say, you know,
they do have a penchant
for a kind of secrecy.
So I wonder, Juliet, you know,
what do you make of how transparent,
if we can use that word loosely here
about this incident?
You know,
the country has been and will remain,
you know,
with this kind of posture of trying
to deliver some messaging out front.
You know, talking about
it could be the weather.
The weather was bad.
How do you see this moving forward?
It's fascinating for
the leadership and in particular, any any
Iranian leadership, let alone
Middle Eastern,
that we're actually following
a search and rescue in real time.
They are
we are we are hearing from news sources,
state news sources,
that there was at least
some contact by some survivors.
We don't know who they are.
There were two other helicopters
with the one that went down.
And so there's at least
some knowledge of of
at least how it went down
and how hard a week.
So everyone is going to keep assuming
possibly at least for the next 12
or 14 hours,
that there might be some survivors
and some of them may be the president.
If not,
then you start a very,
very difficult transition,
as John was saying, is a very
unpopular government,
that that regime was under
state sanctioned sanctions, under U.S.
sanctions is a horrible human being.
I mean, people have to remember, this was
this was a man who executed thousands of
of political prisoners,
but he was the president.
And so that transition is going to unfold
very, very quickly.
And whether you get someone similar
or someone like the previous
president Rouhani,
who was more more progressive in this
in the scale of things, we don't know.
All right.
Juliette Kayyem, Jon Alterman,
thanks to both of you. Appreciate it.