do
i'm from the tradition so portuguese
english party portuguese english
and portuguese
so i'm very happy that um
that exponential growth was mentioned
several times a year and i'm i'll give a
little bit more details because probably
some of the people here
haven't uh grasped
what is the concept
behind the problem
and to start with
i'll talk about some inspiration that
i've had in my life early in my life it
starts when i was at high school and i
got to know moore's law for the first
time
was created by moore in 1965 and he said
originally that the number of
transistors you could put inside a chip
would double every year then later in
his life he never understood why this
has become
18 months
but it's basically because people fit
better with the numbers
but it doesn't matter it's doubling
every each period of time this is
amazing
my second inspiration comes from touring
i was at college already i was learning
a little bit of
artificial intelligence because i was
using a genetic algorithms and
it amazed me the simple concept of
having a human
judge asking in natural language
questions to both a computer and
a human being if that person wouldn't be
able to distinguish between the two that
computer could be considered intelligent
this is also fantastic it's a very
simple thing
that would define
intelligence
the third
inspiration for me is the universe this
ever expanding chaotic
um
fantastic
universe
and what we see here is the crab nebula
which
once upon a time was a star exploded as
a supernova
and then uh if you were alive at the
year 1054 you could see the light of the
supernova for 20 days at daylight and
for
more than two years at night imagine how
beautiful that was but i'm not going to
talk about this i just think that this
is actually
the key to understand those two points
are the keys when they say detergent
i'll make the link later
so
in order to understand a little bit more
about the exponential growth i'll tell
i'm i'm a little bit nervous because we
have a mediocre indian person here and
maybe she knows more about the
bison legend but it goes like this so
one day the king
at the southern
india
um he'd like to receive people and play
chess with them and one day a sage comes
along and very clever guy
was challenged by the team to play chess
and said you can pick whatever you want
if you if you win
he said okay
i i'm not materialistic so
i'm i'm i'm fine with rice but it's a
i'll get my horizon a very specific way
you put one grain of rice just one grain
on the first square of the board and
then when you move to the second one you
put double
um
two and then on the third you put double
as you had before so you go to four
if you do that
look at what happens
so after hand you go to
a thousand grams
after the 20 it goes to a million grains
so the king
who lost
the chess match
couldn't pay his debt
because it was impossible to do that he
realized that as a matter of fact when
you go to the 64
square
you get an exposure it goes to
uh one to the power of
19 and you that's why we are getting
used to those prefix prefixes
so gigatera we're getting used to those
things because memories are that's that
big right but what we are not used to is
that when you get
to very big numbers if we progress
imagine an infinite board and you go to
huge numbers not 64 squared what would
happen so there's a new concept that you
go to the singularity
physics
physicists like me we're not afraid of
singularities we eat those things at
lunch but people are because you never
know what's going to happen if you keep
progressing if technology keeps
progressing you get more and more shifts
uh with more and more transducers and
and computer power what whether you have
right
so if you are uncomfortable with those
explosions just put it in a logarithmic
axis and then we'll have a line
and it seems that everything is fine but
actually the same thing is there
so this is a
graph
by
ray kurzweil
and it's very interesting because you
see that moore's law is being obeyed you
have the computer power measured by
flops floating point operations per
second
and you see that they fit the curve very
well so we are going on an exponential
growth
we are getting there and if you project
it you can see
that
we can achieve the brain's power by
2029 that is a projection
but actually this
has already been
achieved if you if you got the k
computer a super computer in 2010 it had
already 10.5 kiloflops 10 to the power
of 15 megawatts this is the raw power of
the brain as we estimate right
and then the united states has to catch
up
and we got a super computer named
sequoia with 16.3d
and then
just did it with titan with 20 better
flops which is supposedly twice as much
as of our ranks
in the jungle the chinese actually story
they they're working on a hundred
because computer by 2015
this means that we are going to be
10 times as powerful as the brain in raw
computing power flops
does that mean that we have a brain in
computers
not exactly because we you need the
right software to run in our banks in
the computers to mimic our banks our
brains
are running a software that has been
involved for millions of years right so
how can you get a computer that really
can pass the turing test if you optimize
the software and the brain is a great
inspiration for that
actually ibm's blue matter algorithm
is an emulation of a cat's what is
equivalent of a cat's cortex or the
human's vision coordinates a huge number
of networks 1.6 billion neurons
with more than a 9 trillion
connection between them when you run
software that type of algorithm you get
incredible
results and that's where we're heading
to imagine now that we are obeying the
moore's law we're getting computers that
are more and more powerful and we are
evolving the software as well to work
like the brain what can we do
well
i'll take a ride on kurzweil's some of
his predictions those are not mine
just for us to exercise what can happen
so
by 2019 10 years
um
roughly we're very close to this already
so
we're we're having chips with the raw
power of
the brain meaning that computers that we
have at home maybe our ipads
can be running at this sort of speed of
battlefront
this is not far away
entire computers will be so limited that
you can't embed it
anything we heard this today someone
mentioned that the chairs would have
computers um our clothing will have
computers
i
i truly believe that's going to happen
and this this was my dream when i was a
kid i wanted to have robots and i
we see those things already cleaning the
houses but they'll be with that computer
power and autonomous software they'll be
able to run around the house and really
help you
let's jump 10 years now this is
in moore's law this is
uh
a thousand-fold increase in our
capabilities what what can happen
so it is predicted by kurzweil that we
are going to reverse engineering the
entire brain meaning that we can build
softer it can work like the brain
not only that you are understanding the
rain so much that maybe you can do the
a very scary concept but honestly if i
can put something in my brain
that i can learn as
sorry
drive
that i can learn things instantaneously
i don't know if i would do it but it's
tempting
and for the first time in 2000 2029 we
will pass we'll have a computer that can
pass the touring test meaning that we
have a truly intelligent computer
jumping to a very long future so it's
only 99 this is really hard to predict
anything but
what can happen
this can happen computers can be
self-aware you can't
just look at that curve it's like the
rise
computers will be writing their own code
expanding their capabilities talking to
each other building
alternative realities
i hope it's not as scary as the matrix
and
back to my
the thing that led me to do physics at
university
i think computers will be as curious as
we are about the universe and they want
to figure out what happens
what why the university it is is
like this so they might be those
intelligence computers the ais they
might decide to go and venture
themselves to the universe
it's pretty dangerous for us not not so
much for them
and our rocket science would be much
more evolved at that time
so many people say that none of those
things will be possible because moore's
law itself
is going to
find a barrier and not evolve anymore
the thing is it's been there for a while
and you can do a lot to improve it and
to extend it for instance using plasma
as opposed to
ultraviolet lithography so with more
energy you can produce um
wavelengths that are in the nanometers
that you can put more transistors on the
waffle
or you go to alternative materials like
nanotubes if you fold a
piece of graphene you have nanotubes
those are conductors or semiconductors
so you can build wires with them and
they are in the nanometers they are new
or you do very creative things because
why should we have
chips that are only 2d you can put
one waffle on top of the other and you
have 3d chip and this is actually
reality already 3m is building the thing
that you put in the middle so that you
isolate them and at the same time you
you allow
heat to dissipate so those things are
reality and you can have
a thousand to
a million fold increase in the future of
our capabilities on the 2d
meanwhile okay i spoke about the future
those things are fantastic i get excited
about it
but what is happening as we speak
a revolution is happening
mobile
when i when i was a kid and i got my
first computer i couldn't explain to my
father how he worked
you know he never got excited about
those things that was disappointing for
me
but
today
it doesn't matter how old you are you
are using computers all the time people
are using
feeling comfortable the artists here
finally got comfort what are using
computers and
to expose
for art and this is fantastic
um businesses are changing people are
figuring out ways to be more productive
and they are doing computing the same
sort of computing that i was doing when
i was a kid
and another thing that is a remarkable
when you compare
access to computer through pcs and
through phones
it's the opposite what we would expect
in terms of where
those things are so here
in brazil the phones are more
predominant people are doing computing
through phones in the u.s although there
are lots of people using phones as well
the computing gun
in dc's
is much higher
so it's it's when i look at this i see
that it is a revolution it's happening
right now
and there's no way not to explore it
because we are in the middle of an
organism that is
super fantastic we are in the middle of
a
new web a web that is evolving from web
to all to a semantic web where things
really mean something when you
search for something you're not
searching for for a keyword in the
future you might search for keywords or
for meetings and those things will
you'll find find what you
you're interested
in the cloud
which are hosting everything is actually
a super computer itself with petaflops
of of
computing power
with a huge amount of data that we are
generating all the time
for uh by things we do and those devices
that we carry with us
which are our phones or tablets they are
our
assistant those things
are really changing our lives helping us
to
have a more productive advice so i'll do
some predictions for 2015 which is not
so far
some of them are kind of obvious but
i think the form factors that we have
right now are not the best ones i you
know although that bigger screen of the
iphone
it's cool i don't i don't feel it's the
right thing i
those weren't the
the form factors of the tools we are
we like to use with our hands
so
things like the bendable tablets can be
appearing like a topical thing
um
you you will need to
use your phone to pay for something you
just enter a place
buy something
and go out
you can buy things just by being there
of course your computer is with you
i was
mentioned here today
uh the google glass is just an example i
think augmented reality finally by 2015
will be a reality
because augmented reality is really
augmenting what you see when you see it
augmented reality through a phone you're
actually diminishing your reality
this is aberration i hope they don't
exist by 2015 your phones or
tablets will be able to take pictures
that you need or those features modified
that we
use with instagram
um deals are not going to be bombarding
you
only the ones that really matter to you
because the data that you provide to the
to the net
will be enough to generate usable
information for you so the deals will
come to you
at the right moment when you need him
in the personal assistant thing if you
watch the big game theory
so this thing really will evolve and
become really critical in our lives
i like that example that my flight has
been cancelled
and then i need to make all the
arrangements the changes
do do i really need to do to do those
things
if all the systems are connected through
the cloud i don't need to i just need to
be notified that i don't need to go to
the airport anymore
so
why
those things will be possible because
when you visit those things you use
those things you post things
you're building your personality there
even if it's a persona that you choose
to expose online
you're giving a lot you're giving away a
lot of information about yourself and
those super computers that are becoming
more and more intelligent
they will figure out who you are
and you're not going to notice
and i'm not talking about only those
that those ones and there's
those ones as well there's
hundreds of thousands of
websites apps that you're going to use
and they're going to collect information
about you
and don't you dare to think that they
are not going to figure out who you are
because even when you're trying to do
the persona you're building yourself as
well
so
that might be scary right so we might be
moving to something that can be a big
problem
but i started saying that i'm optimistic
and i think there's the risk of
something like this had to happen
but i prefer to think that uh it's more
of like a big mother
that if used wisely
with the proper security and there are
things like point to security security
we can
move through our our lives in a more
secure way
with more value
more productive and i can do the things
that i want without
you know wasting time with things that
uh
i don't know why we do like
we spend too much time sometimes with
things that could be optimized
that's my my story thanks so much
you