BECAUSE YOU'RE GOING WAIT IN A
LOT OF TRAFFIC, BRUCE.
>>> FINANCIAL WORLD, JEN IS
BRACING FOR PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION AND THE OUTCOME JUST
LIKE EVERYBODY ELSE, UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THE ECONOMY AND PUBLIC
POLICY ARE CAUSING WILD SWINGS
DAILY IN THE MARKET AS WE HIT
THE ONE-WEEK MARK, ONE WEEK TILL
ELECTION DAY, FRIDAY JAMES COMY
REVEALED AN INVESTIGATION INTO
E-MAILS FROM A TOP CLINTON AID
AUTHORITIES ARE LOOKING INTO
SEXTING ALLEGATIONS.
SAME DAY THE MARKET INK THATTED
WHAT IS GOING ON?
HERE TO DISCUSS MARKET REACTIONS
COME TUESDAY AND THE
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.
THE MARKETS ARE READY F
3
Good morning.
>>> VERY MUCHORS HAVE RAISED
AFTERNOON AWFUL LOT OF CASH.
INSTITUTIONS HAVE AS MUCH CASH
ON HAND AS THEY HAD BACK IN
AFTER THE SEPTEMBER 11
ATTACKS.
AND PEOPLE ARE JUST, IT IST A
HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY.
SO BEING SAFE RATHER THAN SORRY
SEEMS TO BE THE STRATEGY RIG
NOW.
>>> IF YOU GET PASSED ALL THE
MUD SLINGING ON BOTH SIDES AND
LOOK AT THEIR PLANS BOTH SEEM TO
WANT TO INCREASE SPEND AND CUT
TAXES IS THAT BULLISH FOR STOCKS
AND BEARISH FOR FIXED INCOME?
>>> WELL, TYPICALLY IT IS
BULLISH FOR STOCKS IF GOVERNMENT
SPENDING IS UP, YOU KNOW.
AND WE'VE HAD UNPRECEDENTED
GOVERNMENT SPENDING OVER THE
LAST EIGHT YEARS.
TWO EIGHT CYCLE AS WE WERE IN
CRISIS WHEN OBAMA WAS GOING
AGAINST BUSH.
NOW WE HAVE A SITUATION WHERE
THE ECONOMY HAS BEEN KIND OF
SPUTTERING TRYING TO GET STARTED
IN INTEREST RATES HAVE BEEN AT
ALL-TIME LOWS.
THE FEDS ARE MEETING TODAY AND
TOMORROW TO DECIDE IF THEY
SHOULD RAISE INTEREST RATES
WHICH WOULD BE KIND OF
UNPRECEDENTED LEADING UP TO AN
ELECTION, MY GUESS IS THEY'LL DO
NOTHINGED TOO AND TOMORROW BUT
IN DECEMBER THEY COULD START
RAISING RATES.
>>> ASSUMING WE DO HAVE A WINNER
NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT AND ASSUMING
SOMEBODY DOES GIVE A CONCESSION
SPEECH, DO YOU THINK THERE WILL
BE AN IMMEDIATE MARKET REACTION?
AND IF SO, IS THAT ALL THERE IS?
>>> GREAT QUESTION.
YOU KNOW, WE THINK THAT IF TRUMP
WINS THERE IS GOING TO BE A
MAJOR NEGATIVE MARKET REACTION.
THERE ARE A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO
SAY, MY GOD, WE CAN'T SEE THE
WORLD WITH HILLARY AT THE HELM
FOR THE NEXT FOUR YEARS.
THERE ARE A LOT OF PEOPLE ON
WALL STREET WHO SAY WE CAN'T SEE
THE WORLD WITH DONALD TRUMP AT
THE HELM.
AND THE MAIN REASON IS THAT
SHE'S MORE OF A PREDICTABLE
ENTITY.
NOBODY KNOWS WHAT TRUMP WOULD DO
IF HE GETS OUT THERE AND HE'S
GOT A LOT OF PLANS, SO TO SPEAK,
BUT FROM A WALL STREET
PERSPECTIVE, CHANGE IS REALLY
THE THING THAT RATTLES ITS CAGE.
THEY WANT CONTINUITY ONE WAY OR
ANOTHER.
AND TRUMP REPRESENTS MASSIVE
CHANGE, BUT NO ONE KNOWS EXACTLY
WHAT THAT LOOKS LIKE.
>>> IS IT SAFE TO ASSUME, GIVEN
HISTORY, THAT THE FIRST YEAR IS
GOING THE BE A LITTLE ROCKY
BEFORE WE REALLY GET A HANDLE ON
WHERE THE ECONOMY IS GOING TO GO
UNDER WHOEVER'S TUTELAGE.
>>> IT TENDS TO GO THAT WAY IN
THE FIRST YEAR OF A PRESIDENTIAL
CYCLE, PARTICULARLY WHEN YOU
DON'T HAVE AN INCUMBENT IN
THERE.
IF OBAMA WAS RUNNING AGAINST
TRUMP RIGHT NOW, AT LEAST WE'D
BE HEARING SOME POSITIVES FROM
HIS SIDE VERSUS THE NEGATIVES ON
THE OTHER.
IN THIS CASE WE HAVE NEGATIVES
ON BOTH SIDES AND INVESTORS,
INSTITUTIONS AND RETAIL
INVESTORS TEND TO PULL BACK WHEN
THAT IS THE CASE.
THEY WANT TO MIKE AS MANY
CHANGES AS POSSIBLE AS EARLY ON
IN THEIR PRESIDENT SO, SO THAT
THE MARKETPLACE HAS A CHANCE TO
ADJUST BY THE TIME WE GET INTO
THE NEXT ELECTION CYCLE FOUR
YEARS FROM NOW YOU AND THEY'RE
WORLD MARKETS.
>> THE GLOBAL SITUATION I
TRICKY.
ONE OF THE THINGS BENEFITING THE
U.S. OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS IS
WE'VE BEEN LESS CHAOTIC THAN
EUROPE OR JAPAN AND CHINA.
THAT TREND, I THINK IS GOING TO
CONTINUE.
IF WE GET A BIG DROP AFTER NEX
TUESDAY, LOOK AT THAT
POTENTIALLY AS A BUYING
OPPORTUNITY.
BECAUSE THE WORLD STILL SEES US
AS THE BEST ECONOMY ON EARTH AND
THE BEST PLACE TO INVEST MONEY
ON EARTH.
>> Bruce: I'M PUTTING THE
MONEY I HAVE LEFT IN THE AREA