>>> PRESIDENT TRUMP IS HEAD TO GO IOWA TONIGHT FOR HIS LATEST
CAMPAIGN RALLY AS PART OF HIS
EFFORTS TO HELP REPUBLICANS KEEP
CONTROL OF CONGRESS.
AFTER IOWA, HE IS OFF TO
PENNSYLVANIA AND OHIO.
BUT ANYONE OF THOSE STATES
REALLY WHERE THE BATTLE GROUND
IS FOR THE SENATE.
AND ALL OF THOSE ARE PLACES
WHERE HE WON INEHE WON IN ON 201
SO RIM RENIN PENNSYLVANIA, BOB C
BEEN LEADING BY DOUBLE DIGITS.
AND SAME GOES IN OHIO FOR
SHERROD BROWN’S RE-ELECTION RACE
AGAINST JIM ARE A NAS CITYRENACC
AND VUMP RTRUMP WILL NEED THEM A
IT DID STRIKE ME WHEN YOU SEE
HIM GOING TO WESTERN IOWA, YES,
PART OF THE THIRD CONGRESSIONAL
DISTRICT THERE.
DISTRICT THERE. HE IS GOING TO IREERIE.
PLACES THAT MEANS MORE TO HIM IN
2020.
2020. FEELS LIKE THIS IS TESTING THE
REELECT WEEK.
REELECT WEEK. >> THIS IS A PRESIDENT WHO FILED
FOR RE-ELECTION ON THE DAY HE
WAS INAUGURATED FOR THE FIRST
TERM.
TERM. NEVER SEEN NICK LIKEANYTHING LIK
SO HIS RE-ELECTION CAMPAIGN IS
RUNNING FLATH OUT.
EVEN IF THE REPUBLICANS HOLD THE
SENATE, PRESIDENT TRUMP IS IN
TROUBLING IN SOME OF THESE
STATES.
STATES. HE HAS FALLEN CONSIDERABLY IN
APPROVAL AND THE MIDWEST AS A
WHOLE SEEMS TO BE FLIPPING IN A
MIDTERM YEAR.
MIDTERM YEAR. STATES THAT HE CARRIED ARE
GETTING READY IT APPEARS TO
EITHER ELECT DEMOCRATIC SENATORS
OR DEMOCRATIC GOVERNORS OR BOTH.
>> AND IT IS INTERESTING, THE
ONE PART OF THE QUOTE, WAVE,
THAT HAS GOTTEN LESS ATTENTION.
WE MADE IT OUR LEAD TODAY.
SORT OF THE BIG TEN STATES THAT
WAS HUGELY IMPORTANT TO BARACK
OBAMA’S ELECTION AND
RE-ELECTION.
RE-ELECTION. AND IT IS HOW HE HELD OFF MITT
ROMNEY AND HUGELY IMPORTANT IN
DURD’S
DURD’S DONALD TRUMP’S WIN.
IT APPEARS TO BE TARIFFS.
IF YOU FIND AN ISSUE THAT PEOPLE
SAY THEY AREN’T JUDGING HIM YET,
BUT YOU CAN’T HELP BUT NOTICE
THAT AS HE THREATENED TARIFFS,
REPUBLICAN NUMBERS STARTED
ERODING IN THOSE MID WESTERN --
PARTICULARLY THING A GRIE AG GRI
AGRICULTURE RAY MID WESTERN
STATES.
STATES. >> AND LET’S NOT FOR TO GET THAT
MANY OF THOSE MID WESTERN STATES
AS WE KNOW, THEY ARE THE NICE
PART OF AMERICA.
I’M NOT GOING TO DISOIG NEW YORK
OR
OR OR CALIFORNIA, BUT YOU DON’T GET
THE TIME OF DAY FROM THERE.
MID WESTERNERS MAY NOT REACT TO
SOME OF THE THINGS THAT DONALD
TRUMP SAYS ON SDR.
AND THIS REMINDS US THAT 2016
WAS A CHOICE.
IT WASN’T SIMPLY THAT PEOPLE
DECIDED TO VOTES FOR DONALD
TRUMP IN A VACUUM.
MANY WERE VOTING AGAINST HILLARY
CLINTON.
CLINTON. MAYBE YOU DISPUTE THE PREMISE,
BUT ESSENTIALLY TAKES TWROIT IS
PRONGED DECISION.
PRONGED DECISION. >> I’VE ALWAYS SAID THE BIGGEST
ERROR WAS TREATING 20 ON 16 AS16
WHEN IT WAS MORE OF A REFERENDUM
ON HER.
ON HER. AND ONE OF THE OTHER THINGS THAT
I THOUGHT ’16 WAS THE
HISTORICAL HEAD WIND.
HOICH
HOICH HOW LONG DO YOU THINK THAT WE
ARE UNDERSTANDTEMENT THE NORMAL
HISTORY?
HISTORY? >> IF THERE HAS EVER BEEN AN
ABNORMAL PRESIDENCY, WE’RE IN
IT.
IT. AND TRUMP HAS VIOLATED SO MANY
OF THE RULES OF POLITICS AND SO
MANY OF THE NORMS OF POLITICS.
THAT WE HESITATE TO SAY, WELL,
HISTORY SHOWS US THAT X WILL
HAPPEN, THEREFORE IT WILL HAPPEN
UNDER TRUMP.
UNDER TRUMP. BUT IF YOU ARE SAYING A RED WAVE
AIN’T GOING TOO-TO-HAPPEN, IT IS
A QUESTION OF HOW BIG THE BLUE
WAVE IS.
WAVE IS. IT COULD BE A WAVE, BUT THERE
WILL BE A BLUE WAVE.
>> WHEN ARE YOU GOING TO FEEL
MORE COMFORTABLE TO KNOW THE
KAVANAUGH EFFECT?
KAVANAUGH EFFECT? AND HOW SUSTAINING IT IS.
>> PROBABLY ABOUT 9:30, 10:00
P.M. ON ELECTION NIGHT BUT WE
HAVE TO HAVE A WEEK TO SETTLE
THIS.
THIS. AND IT IS TOO SOON.
IF I HAD TO GUESS, I’D SAY BOTH
PACES WERE SPOKEDTOKE WOULD BY T
BUT REPUBLICANS WERE LAGS.
PEOPLE AREN’T CHANGES SIDES.
INSTEAD, THIS IS THE PARTY’S
REACHING PEOPLE WHO ARE VERY
LIKELY TO TURN OUT IF THEY ARE
ENERGIZED.
ENERGIZED. >> WHAT IS IT -- ONE OF THE --
AS YOU NOTED, PRESIDENT TRUMP
HAS SORT OF BLOWN UP NORMS.
BUT NOTHING COULD BLOW IT UP
MORE IF WE TRULY HAVE A TWO
AMERICA STYLE ELECTION.
MEANING DEMOCRATS WIN 40 HOUSE
SEATS AND SOMEHOW REPUBLICANS
GAIN IN THE SENATE.
IT IS A GEOGRAPHIC ANOMALY.
BUT I HAVE TO TELL YOU, I AM
STRUGGLING TO FIGURE OUT HOW
THEY WOULD PICK UP 40 HOUSE
SEATS AND NOT AT LEAST BE A NET
NEUTRAL IN SENATE.
>> IT IS STUFF UNTOUGH UNTIL I L
THE MAP.
THE MAP. SO I CAN SEE HOW IT WILL HAPPEN.
AND INTERESTINGLY, THE ACADEMIC
MODELS THAT PREDICT THESE
ELECTIONS, AND THEY DID MUCH
BETTER THAN THE REST OF US IN
2016, THEY ARE PREDICTING JUST
THAT, THAT THE DEMOCRATS WILL
PICK UP A LOT OF HOUSE SEATS.
GOES UP TO 44 SEATS.
AND AT THE SAME TIME, THEY ARE
SAYING THAT REPUBLICANS WILL
KEEP THE SENATE AND A MAYBE EVEN
ADD A SEATS OR TWO.
IT HAS HAPPENED.
WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL ELECTIONS
WHERE THAT SPLIRT MASS OWEPOLICE
OCCURRED.
OCCURRED. >> OF COURSE IT FITS RIGHT IN.
>> I’M WITH YOU.
IT IS SORT OF LIKE PAR FOR THE
TRUMP COURSE.
TRUMP COURSE. GOLFING ANALOGY WAS ON PURPOSE.
LARRY, AS ALWAYS, THANK YOU.