so the big question that remains
unanswered is what caused this plane to
skid off the runway
what exactly happened will be left up to
the NTSB investigators to figure out but
our news for Jax aviation expert Edie
Boothe joins me now here on the morning
show we've been tracking the plane's
movements with the help of flight aware
the Boeing 737 departed Naval Station
Norfolk about 5:30 in the morning landed
at nes jacks at 7:20 plane departed NES
Jack's again about 3 p.m. and landed at
Gitmo in two and a half hours let's go
to rotators so it basically rotates
between airports at 7:20 Miami
International plane left Guantanamo Bay
got to Jacksonville about 9:40 that's
when it was attempting to land at NES
Jack's and wound up skidding off the
runway into the st. Johns River so II D
the runway that he was trying to land on
it's an east-west runway
obviously he's west because correct he
went into the st. Johns River you told
me it's about 9,000 feet long that's
plenty of room to make a safe landing
mile and a half 200 feet wide it's one
of the most capable runways in
Jacksonville so what do you think the
NTSB is gonna find they're gonna look at
the flight tracking data which I've been
able to pull up and look at the airplane
was going way too fast on its final
approach close to 200 miles an hour
which is what about 30 miles per hour 30
miles an hour too fast we don't know at
which point he touched down on the
runway but between being too fast on the
approach possibly not touching down at
the first part of the runway not
utilizing maximum braking attempts
reverse thrust but this is the type of
thing that happens from time to time an
aviation but it's almost invariably
pilot error and not the fault of the
airplane and we've got to point out that
at this point it certainly is just
speculation on our part what would cause
the pilot to not pay attention to it
detail like that the weather is a big
distraction
you'll recall it was lightning last
night I live about five miles from the
base there was thunder heard lightning
flashing these are big distractions his
flight path shows he made a number of
major deviations during his final
approach presumably to avoid weather so
there's a destroy
action factor there may be a fatigue
factor it's prudent to carry a little
bit of extra speed during gusty weather
conditions to avoid a phenomenon known
as wind shear but it appears to me from
the flight track data we have that he
may have been going too fast on the
approach and just simply didn't have
time to stop you talk about fatigue
possibly being a factor we you know
outlined the route that this plane flew
possible that the same pilot was on this
rotation between bases doubtful probably
for the leg from Jacksonville to
Guantanamo and back to Jackson was
probably the same flight crew but there
was certainly a crew change between the
flight that left Norfolk at 5 o'clock
that morning the outcome had it not
landed in the shallow water it did and
the speculation is that the landing gear
is sitting in the mud and muck of the
st. Johns River the outcome would have
been much different there would have
been a number of drownings I suspect
it's difficult to evacuate an airplane
even though it's technically feasible
people don't always behave as they
probably should they try to grab gather
their belongings for the exit the
airplane and it could have been a real
tragedy the runway which was extensively
redone four years ago does have an
overrun area that's designed to minimize
the impact of situations like this so
it's a good outcome demonstrate some of
the safety features built into the
runway systems so there's a lot to be
grateful for this morning well he went
past the overrun into the grass and then
into the water he did but these newer
runways are designed with features that
break away aren't solid poles that tear
the airplane apart so this is all taken
to account in modern runway design do
you know anything about the safety
record of Miami International
come on it's a trip basically a charter
group I have an excellent safety record
I have been following them for about 30
years now their beginnings were with the
fleet of the bankrupt Eastern Airlines
this was a brand-new airplane that they
purchased in 2001 and have operated
safely for 18 years I don't think you're
going to find any problems with this
Charter air company they carry sports
teams is one of their specialty markets
and they have an excellent reputation in
the industry and and you know as you go
through our Facebook page a lot of
people I thought this plane was grounded
that's the 737 max eight this is a
737-800 it's a much different aircraft
though this one too is manufactured by
Boeing but if it's pilot error boeing is
not to be gonna be held accountable this
is the most proven airplane in the
history of aviation it's known as the
737 neo was introduced about 1999 a good
20 years ago and it's proven itself in
the industry the one that is grounded
now is an entirely different design from
a pitch stability standpoint and that
would certainly and any of that have
nothing to do with a runway overrun now
the other big question that people are
asking is how long is this kind of plane
this plane going to sit in the water
they really can't move until the NTSB
gets here that's correct although to
mitigate the fuel spill they would
certainly be not would be forgiven for
doing that I think the NTSB is going to
primarily be concerned with the data
recording devices the black boxes those
will be easy to access I suspect by the
end of today it will be pulled back onto
the overrun area and the investigation
can proceed from there you know
oftentimes we hear it can be years
before we get even preliminary findings
in a crash you pretty much think that
we'll find out what they think the root
cause is fairly quickly there'll be a
factual report issued within about 30
days that will provide some solid clues
but a final probable cause determination
that only the NTSB can give us will be
about two years off and if it was indeed
pilot error recriminations for the pilot
depends depends the unions are strong
and going to bet for the pilots
sometimes these are errors that are just
things that happen in the system and so
I would suspect these pilots will be
able to finish out their careers at some
point at booth thank you very much for
your perspective