COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 90
MINUTES WITH VERY IMPORTANT
INFORMATION.
WE BEGIN WITH CRAIG SETZER
AND THE NEW ADVISORY JUST IN
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER.
CRAIG.
Reporter: THE NEW ADVISORY
IS IN.
AND I WISH I COULD SAY GUESS
WHAT THERE HAS BEEN A SHIFT IN
THE TRACK.
THERE IS A LITTLE CHANGE HERE.
THERE IS A LITTLE CHANGE THERE.
IT IS BASICALLY JUST THE SAME
AS EARLIER AND I'LL SHOW YOU
THAT IN A SECOND.
LET'S UPDATE WHERE THE STORM IS
LOCATED RIGHT NOW.
55 MILES TO THE EAST, NORTHEAST
OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
STILL 185 MILES PER HOUR WINDS
MOVING TO THE WEST, NORTHWEST
AT 16.
CATEGORY FIVE.
WE WILL START TALKING ABOUT THE
LATITUDE AND THE LONGITUDE.
THOSE NUMBERS WILL BE SOMETHING
WE WATCH CLOSELY IN TERMS OF
THE LATITUDE BEING HOW FAR
NORTH OR SOUTH THE STORM IS
GOING AND THE LONGITUDE AND
THAT IS THE WEST NUMBER.
WE EXPECT THIS NUMBER TO COME
UP SLOWLY.
THE LONGITUDE NUMBER TO COME UP
MORE QUICKLY.
BECAUSE THE STORM IS MOVING
MORE QUICKER WEST THAN TO THE
NORTH.
EVENTUALLY THAT NUMBER THERE
WILL START GOING MORE QUICKLY.
THE LATITUDE SO IT WILL START
GOING TO THE NORTH.
THAT IS THE TERM.
THAT IS WHAT WE WILL BE
CONCERNED ABOUT.
WHERE THAT TURN WILL TAKE
PLACE.
IN THAT NUMBER IS BETWEEN 78 OR
80, THAT MEANS IT'S A LITTLE
SOUTH, SOUTHEAST OF FLORIDA.
HERE'S WHERE IT IS RIGHT NOW.
THERE IS THE STORM SIZE, THE
TROPICAL STORM FORCED WINDS.
HERE'S THE NEW FUTURE TRACK.
THUS IS THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE CENTER OF THE
STORM IS GOING TO STAY TO THE
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA.
SOMETIMES WE HAVE STORMS THAT
GO OVER THIS MOUNTAINOUS ISLAND
OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WHICH
DISRUPTS THE CIRCULATION.
THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
DISRUPTION AS IT PASSES.
ONLY DISRUPTION IS WINDS HAVE
TO COME DOWN THE MOUNTAIN INTO
THE STORM.
SOMETIMES THERE IS A LITTLE
DRYING EFFECT TO THAT.
AFTER THAT, IT'S THROUGH THE
TURKS AND KAY COAST WHERE THERE
COULD BE A CATASTROPHIC STORM
SURGE WITH IT.
HERE IS THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME.
THERE IS OUR FRIDAY POSITION,
SATURDAY POSITION.
COULD IT KEEP GOING NORTH?
STILL A POSSIBILITY.
BUT HERE IS OUR SUNDAY, THAT IS
AT 2:00 P.M..
THIS IF YOU REMEMBER FROM THE
11:00 A.M.
ADVISORY, THAT WAS ALMOST
IDENTICAL TO THE FORECAST
POINT.
OUR FOUR DAY FORECAST POINT.
THAT IS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SO IT IS THE HURRICANE CENTER
FORECAST ARE THINKING THAT THIS
IS THEIR BEST GUESS FOR WHERE
THE CENTER OF IRMA WILL BE AT
2:00 ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
NOW THIS FAR OUT, FOUR DAYS OUT
THERE IS SOME ERROR.
THAT BLACK LINE RIGHT THERE,
THAT IS 80.
THIS BLACK LINE RIGHT HERE,
THAT IS 25.
SO THAT IS THE NUMBER WE'LL BE
WATCHING AS IT GETS CLOSE TO
80, IT'S DUE SOUTH OF FLORIDA.
WE WANT THAT NUMBER TO STAY
OVER HERE IN THE 70s, NOT GET
TO AROUND 80 BECAUSE THAT WILL
BE GOING TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA.
IF IT CROSSES 80 AND KEEPS
GOING, THAT IS NOT A BAD THING.
BUT THAT 80 NUMBER IS SOMETHING
WE WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY.
AND THEN AFTER THAT IT IS TO
THE NORTH AND COULD BE RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST.
IF IT'S OFFSHORE, IT'S A DUE
NORTHERLY MOTION.
AND THERE IS STILL SOME
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA COULD FEEL THE
IMPACT WITH THE CORE OF THE
STORM.
HERE'S THE LATEST HURRICANE
FORCED WIND SWATH.
I HAVE OUTLINED THE CONE HERE.
THIS AREA RIGHT HERE ESPECIALLY
THE RED AREA, THAT IS THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF WINDS
GREATER THAN 75 MILES AN HOUR
SUSTAINED.
THAT MEANS IT'S BLOWING 75,
GUSTING HIGHER.
AS WE GO THROUGH TIME HERE AND
THE STORM GETS CLOSER, THAT RED
INCREASINGLY MORE AND MORE
TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA.
BUT YOU CAN ALMOST MAKE OUT THE
OUT LINE WHERE THE CORE OF THE
STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE.
HERE'S THE LATEST RADAR FROM
SAN JUAN.
YOU CAN SEE THE CORE OF IRMA
JUST TO THE NORTHEAST THERE.
AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE CORE
ITSELF WHERE THE WORST OF THE
WEATHER S THE HIGHEST OF THE
WIND, WILL PROBABLY STAY JUST
OFFSHORE AND THAT WOULD BE A
GOOD THING.
THIS SECOND BAND IS PRETTY
STRONG.
SO THE WINDS COMING UP QUITE A
BIT IN PUERTO RICO.
THERE IS THE LOOP AND PRETTY
SPECTACULAR FROM A
METEOROLOGICAL POINT OF VIEW.
LOOKING HURRICANE.
YOU SEE IT THERE.
YOU SEE HOW THINGS STACK UP
THERE.
OUR TIMELINE REMAINS UNCHANGED
WITH THE NEW ADVISORY.
THROUGH TOMORROW HOT STUN AND
SOME STORMS.
FRIDAY STILL HOT SUN AND SOME
STORMS.
FRIDAY IS OUR LAST GOOD WEATHER
DAY FOR PREPARATION.
SATURDAY THE WINDS INCREASE,
THE SQUALLS INCREASE, YOU WILL
WANT TO BE WHERE YOU ARE GOING
TO STAY AND WAIT OUT THE STORM
AND NOT VENTURE OUT.
I WOULD SAY BY NOON ON SATURDAY