The risk of recession, the Fed rate hike, the global economy, all of these factors are,
of course, driving markets up and down.
What, though, could these long term effects be for crypto?
Joining us now to talk about that more is Annabelle Huang, managing partner of Amber
Group.
Annabelle, great to have you with us as always.
Let's talk about us GDP versus the Fed.
Presumably, in your opinion, is the Fed that is more important as far as crypto investors
are concerned out of those two things.
But how much really does GDP factor into the equation, do you think, for crypto markets?
I think it definitely gave the crypto market a boost, which is ironic because GDP didn't
print that well.
But I think the narrative is now is comedy is not doing well.
Then the Fed might consider tapering a bit earlier and might start cutting rates a bit
earlier, which will give sort of the easy money era again and pave the way for another
crypto boost.
But it's important to note that GDP is not the Fed's mandate.
So I think it is an important stat to look at, but doesn't necessarily equate to any
monetary policy sort of changes.
Yeah, it's sort of a weird situation, isn't it, where bad news is good news and like everything
sort of seems upside down in a lot of ways.
I mean, rightly you point out, you know, this is just the sort of thing that keeps expectations
broadly where they are currently.
How, though, do you make sense of this now is investor what are you looking at.
Globally in terms of what's happening in Japan and Europe are also in the sort of broader
geopolitical conflict that's still ongoing.
I would say all of these factors ultimately affect global economy or global monetary policy,
which in turns also affect Bitcoin, ether, the majors as well as the broader crypto market.
But I think in terms of crypto, particularly if you if you hold a slightly longer term
view than if we zoom out and say that, okay, maybe the next crypto cycle is going to come
in 2024, if not before, then what can we start doing now?
What are some of the more fundamental things we can focus on?
Is it the secondary market, or is it maybe some of the private market or venture side
opportunities?
And as investors, it's perhaps not a bad idea to still send cash way until there's clear
movement for before you jump back in.
Yeah.
Look, you mentioned crypto cycles there.
I think everyone's waiting for this this decoupling, this deep correlation of crypto and traditional
assets.
What sort of signals are we going to be looking at for that, do you think?
We're in an interesting spot where the macro dollar funding cycle coincides with the crypto
cycle because crypto cycles tend to be a lot shorter than I think we are likely going to
see a decoupling hopefully to the upside of crypto versus broader market.
And the timing again is really difficult to say, but I think it would be a combination
of a lot of the crypto specific catalysts.
So merge or whatever happens after the merge and then also the Bitcoin having, which is
the, you know, the good old classic catalyst, but that hasn't felled us yet.
So I think we're all paying attention to this and I think a lot of the other developments
in the works and we'll see if the next cycle we can actually get a bit closer to mass adoption
or or theory.
Yeah, as you said, bear market rally certainly seems to be the basic characterization of
what's happening.
You sound a little bit optimistic, I think it's fair to say.
I wonder whether that's a decent characterization of how a lot of people are feeling after last
week in the data.
I think a more sort of longer term optimistic and I think a lot of people are short term
hard to say.
I think that's that view shared about a lot of the clients, investors in general.
But I think for those of us who have seen similar market movement and sentiment, then
I think it's probably slightly easier for us to to believe in that upside later.
All right, thanks a lot for that.
Annabelle Huang, Managing Partner of Amber Group.