2019.
>> THANK YOU VERY, VERY MUCH.
BLAKE BERMAN AT THE WHITE HOUSE.
LOOKING AT GRIDLOCK, USUALLY
SOMETHING GOOD FOR THE MARKETS.
THAT REALLY DEPENDS.
CAITLIN OWENS AND SENIOR FELLOW
MATTY DOTZLER.
MOST OF THE TIMES I AGREE WITH
THAT CONSENSUS ABOUT THE MARKETS
LIKING GRIDLOCK, ET CETERA, BUT
A LOT OF THINGS EVEN THE MARKET,
AS LOW AS THEY ARE FOR
GOVERNMENT LIKE BAILOUTS AFTER
THE LAST MELTDOWN.
THEY DON'T LIKE THE IDEA WE ARE
TURNING AWAY FROM ALL THE
SPENDING.
THEY DON'T LIKE THE IDEA OF
THESE DEFICIT AND THE DEBT ARE
PILING UP AND WITH NO REAL PLAN
WITHOUT EITHER OR BOTH PARTIES
WILL DEAL WITH IT.
THAT'S WHY ARGUE IT MIGHT BE A
LITTLE DIFFERENT THIS TIME.
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
>> I AGREE WITH YOU.
IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT THEY
HAVE FOR THE NEXT YEAR.
MAKE NO MISTAKE IN 2019 AND 2020
THEY WILL TRY TO PRESENT AN
AGENDA THAT SET THE STAGE TO WIN
THE NEXT PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.
WHEN YOU CONTROL CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE THIS IS SOMETHING
THEY'VE BEEN A PRETTY STARKLY IN
2010 YOU ACTUALLY HAVE TO
GOVERN.
WE DON'T KNOW WHAT THEY PLAN TO
DO WITH ALL THE RESPONSIBILITY.
ON THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE A LOT OF
TALK FROM THE INCOMING CHAIRMAN
ABOUT INVESTIGATIONS,
IMPEACHMENT POTENTIALLY.
HOWEVER THE LEADERSHIP OF THE
PARTY HAS TRIED TO HAND HIM SOME
EXPECTATIONS.
IT WOULD BE A MISTAKE TO GO TOO
HARD ON THE INVESTIGATORY
PROCEDURE TO GET BOGGED DOWN
RATHER THAN ARTICULATING A
VISION FOR THE FUTURE.
THEY ARE ABLE TO LEAPFROG
DIFFICULTIES AT THE END OF THE
YEAR IN 2010 AND SET THE
STANDARD WHIPPLE DO FOR THE
COMING YEAR WHICH IS CUT THE
SIZE OF GOVERNMENT.
AND ULTIMATELY BE SUCCESSFUL FOR
THOSE EFFORTS.
>> THE HOUSE RACES JUSTIFIABLY
SO IN FLORIDA AND OBVIOUSLY WHAT
COULD HAPPEN IN ARIZONA.
BUT THERE ARE NINE RACES STILL
NOT CLEARED FOR TAKEOFF AND
THREE IN CALIFORNIA, ONE IN
GEORGIA, ONE IN NEW JERSEY, WON
IN MAINE, TWO IN NEW YORK, ONE
IN UTAH.
EVEN IF DEMOCRATS WERE TO SCORE
OUTRIGHT VICTORIES IN FIVE OF
THOSE RACES, THEY WOULD BE
LOOKING AT A NET GAIN IN THE
HOUSE OF 38 SEATS.
THAT'S A BIG DEAL.
ONE DIRECT IMPACT OF HOW
DEMOCRATS DO IS IN A LEADERSHIP
RACES FOR IF ENOUGH DEMOCRATS
ARE IN THE PAPER SPEAKER PELOSI
OR LEADER PELOSI HAS MORE OF A
CHANCE OF BECOMING SPEAKER
PELOSI.
JUST KIND OF CONTINUING ONLINE
INVESTIGATIONS BY DEMOCRATS.
A LOT OF THESE DEMOCRATS IN
TIGHT RACES THAT HAVE UNSEATED
REPUBLICANS, THEY RAN ON AN
AGENDA NOT AS OPPOSING TRUMP AT
GETTING STUFF DONE.
THEY RAN ON HEALTH CARE,
PRESCRIPTION DRUG.
THE MORE DEMOCRATS IN THE
CHAMBER THAT KIND OF HAVE THIS
PROACTIVE AGENDA, THEY ARE GOING
TO BE PUSHING FOR THE HOUSE TO
DO SOMETHING I'M NOT.
WHILE THAT COULD OVERCOME THE
GRIDLOCK IN WASHINGTON IS A
DIFFERENT QUESTION.
THIS STUFF DOES MATTER.
TRAINED TO DO NOW, A VERY
INTERESTING POINT.
PREVAILING TO GET STUFF DONE,
PROBLEMATIC TO DO.
I AM LOOKING THAT THE MAP HERE
DOUG AND I'M WONDERING HOW
MARKETS ARE GOING TO DEAL --
FORGET ABOUT SOMETHING NOT
GETTING DONE AND DEMOCRATS WHO
ARGUE PRESUMABLY COULD LEAD TO
BAD.
HOW DOES THIS ALL PLAY OUT YOU
THINK?
>> I THINK THAT THE POLITICAL
BULLET POINTS ARE INTERESTING,
BUT THE PROBLEMS FACING THE
MARKET TODAY AND OVER THE LAST
MONTH RUN MUCH DEEPER THAN WHERE
YOU ARE, WHETHER YOU'RE A
DEMOCRAT OR REPUBLICAN.
>> EXPLAINED.
>> WELL, THE MARKET BEGAN TO
SUFFER WHEN INTEREST RATES BEGIN
TO RISE.
FOR THE FIRST TIME REALLY IN
SEVERAL, AND PROBABLY A DECADE
OR 12 YEARS, THERE IS AN
ALTERNATIVE TO STOCKS.
THE S&P DIVIDEND YIELD IS 120%.
ONE-MONTH TREASURY YIELD 40
BASIS POINTS HIGHER AND YOU ONLY
HAVE TO GO OUT TO THREE YEARS TO
GET 3%, NEIL.
THE SECOND THING IS, ONCE THIS
MARKET MOMENTUM STARTED TO
REVERSE THAN DETERIORATE, A
CHANGE IN MARKET STRUCTURE,
PROLIFERATION OF DTS, WHICH ARE
A PASSIVE STRATEGY AND RISK
PARITY, WHICH ARE AGNOSTIC TO
BALANCE SHEETS AND INCOME
STATEMENTS AND PRIVATE MARKET
VALUE BEGAN TO BE THE TAIL THAT
WOULD ADD TO THE MARKETS DOG.
THESE PAYMENTS AND STRATEGIES
TEND TO EXACERBATE THE