TO OUR TOP STORY THIS HALF HOUR,
ROCKY ROAD TO THE PUBLIC MARKET.
HIGH PROFILE COMPANIES, THOSE
WORTH $1 BILLION OR MORE,
INCLUDING UBER, LYFT, PINTEREST,
ALL ENTERING THE PUBLIC MARKETS
THIS YEAR.
THEY MAY RUN INTO TROUBLE.
IT'S NOT JUST MARKET VOLATILITY
TO BLAME.
THE PARTIAL GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN
COULD CAUSE MAJOR HEADACHES FOR
THESE COMPANIES.
JOINING ME NOW, WEALTH
MANAGEMENT CHIEF INVESTMENT
STRATEGIST, NANCY TINGLER.
WHY WOULD THE GOVERNMENT
SHUTDOWN HURT THESE COMPANIES
GOING PUBLIC.
>> THE S.E.C. IS ONE OF THE
AGENCIES THAT IF NOT FUNDED --
THAT IS NOT FUNDED AT THE
MOMENT.
SO ANY S.E.C. REGISTRATION, NEW
IPO HAS TO GO THROUGH THE S.E.C.
AND SO THERE'S A BACKLOG AND
THEN YOU ADD INTO THAT MARKET
VOLATILITY AND I THINK WE'RE
GOING TO SEE A LITTLE BIT OF A
PULLBACK IN TERMS OF
EXPECTATIONS.
THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO BE THE
SECOND MOST ROBUST YEAR AT ABOUT
$60 BILLION IN NEW IPO OFFERINGS
THIS YEAR VERSUS 2014 WHICH WAS
$85 BILLION.
THAT WAS THE PEAK.
AND SO WE'RE KIND OF EXPECTING
TO SEE THINGS SLOW DOWN AT LEAST
IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF THIS
YEAR.
>> THAN CIRCUMSTANCE IT'S KEVIN
HERE.
I THINK ONE OF THE FASCINATING
ASPECTS OF THIS MARKET IS THAT
WE ACTUALLY NEED THESE IPOs
BECAUSE VENTURE CAPITAL HAS TO
EXIT THEIR INVESTMENTS.
ONE OF THE BEST ONES WE'VE SEEN
IS TWILLIO, OVER THE PAST YEAR
IT'S DONE WELL I'M INTERESTED
WHERE YOU'RE LOOKING TO PLACE
CAPITAL TODAY.
WE HAD A ROBUST HOLIDAY SHOPPING
SEASON.
WHERE I'M ALLOCATING MONEY IS
INTO THE INDUSTRIAL R.E.I.T.S.
YOU HAVE A GOLD RUSH FOR
WAREHOUSE SPACE.
WHEN I ORDER SOMETHING ONLINE, I
WANT IT IN 24 HOURS OR LESS.
WHERE ARE YOU PUTTING YOUR
MONEY?
I THINK WE NEED ACTIONABLE IDEAS
TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO NAVIGATE
2019.
DAGEN: AMEN.
NANCY, GO.
>>
[ LAUGHTER ]
THAT WAS EASY, KEVIN, THANK YOU
FOR THE SET-UP.
LISTEN, I MEAN, WE HAVE BEEN
LOOKING FOR THINGS THAT BENEFIT
FROM A STRONG CONSUMER.
IT'S NOT ALL THAT CREATIVE.
AND THE CONSUMER IS ONE OF THE
MOST RELIABLE ASPECTS OF THIS
ECONOMY AS WE TRY TO FIGURE THE
INDUSTRIAL SPACE OUT AFTER THE
ISM NUMBERS YESTERDAY.
WE'VE BEEN ADDING TO WHAT WE
THINK ARE AMAZON-PROEM
THINK ARE AMAZON-PROOM
THINK ARE AMAZON-PROOF
RETAILERS, HOME DEPOT, WALMART.
WE WERE SELLERS OF COSTCO.
WE'VE BEEN POKING AROUND AT
TIFFANY, DESPITE THE CHINA
WORRIES AND SO THOSE ARE -- YOU
KNOW, STARBUCKS, THOSE ARE SOME
OF THE PLACES WE'VE BEEN
LOOKING.
I THINK YOU RAISE A REALLY GOOD
POINT.
THERE'S A SUPPLY ISSUE IN TERMS
OF STOCKS.
COMPANIES ARE BUYING BACK THEIR
STOCK.
WE'VE HAD A SLOWDOWN OR NOT AS
MUCH IN TERMS OF IPOs AND SO I
DO THINK THAT THIS IS GOING TO
BE A REALLY INTERESTING ASPECT
FOR INVESTORS, IF WE CAN GET
SOME OF THE IPOs IN, SOME OF
THE LARGER ONES, FOLKS LIKE US
CAN PUT OUR MONEY IN IT.
MICROSOFT BOUGHT HIT HUB AND SAP
PICKING UP A NEW IPO BEFORE IT
WENT TO IPO, SO I THINK THAT'S
GOING TO BE REALLY INTERESTING
AS WELL TO SEE IF THE COMPANIES
GO IN WITH ALL THEIR CASH AND
BUY THESE THINGS BEFORE WE CAN
GET OUR HANDS ON THEM.
DAGEN: I'LL BE INTERESTED TO
SEE -- THIS IS NOT A REPUBLICAN,
DEMOCRAT THING, BUT IF LAWMAKERS
DOWN IN WASHINGTON GIVEN WHAT
HAS GONE ON IN THE LAST YEAR
WITH A LOT OF THESE GIANT
TECHNOLOGY COMPANIES, IF THE
FEDERAL TRADE COMMISSION STARTS
PUTTING ITS FOOT DOWN ABOUT
POTENTIAL ACQUISITIONS IN THE
TECH SPACE.
SO MAYBE THOSE COMPANIES DO GO
PUBLIC BECAUSE THE BIG COMPANIES
HAVE GOTTEN SO BIG, I THINK THAT
THE GOVERNMENT IS WAKING UP TO
THE FACT THAT, WAIT, WHY DIDN'T
WE INTERVENE OR TAKE A CLOSER
LOOK AT A LOT OF THESE
ACQUISITIONS AHEAD OF THAT I
THINK THAT'S SOMETHING TO THINK
ABOUT IN THE NEW YEAR.
I KNOW YOU HAVE A QUESTION.
>> I WAS CURIOUS, UBER IS REALLY
THE BIGGEST ONE.
THERE'S SOME ANALYSTS WHO SAY
THIS COULD BE VALUED AS MUCH AS
$120 BILLION WHEN IT GOES
PUBLIC.
THE COMPANY HAS CRAZY REVENUE
GROWTH, BUT STILL POSTS NET
LOSSES.
SO JUST AS FAR AS HOW IT'S GOING
TO BE RECEIVED, WHAT IS YOUR
TAKE ON THAT?
>> IT'S INTERESTING, BECAUSE
I'VE BEEN THINKING ABOUT THAT
ONE A LOT.
I WOULD MAKE AN ARGUMENT IS
I WOULD MAKE AN ARGUMENT US
I WOULD MAKE AN ARGUMENT UBER IS
NO AMAZON.
AMAZON STARTED OUT JUST SELLING
BOOKS AND HAS EXPANDED.
SO I DO THINK THAT AT SOME POINT
INVESTORS ARE GOING TO SAY THAT
WE START APPROACHING THAT
EYEBALLS INTERNET PEAK KIND OF
BUBBLE ISSUE WHERE THEY GO WELL,
OKAY, REVENUES ARE ONE THING.
AT SOME POINT WE NEED PROFIT.
UBER HAD A LOT OF STUMBLES
CORPORATE GOVERNANCE WISE.
WE WROTE A PIECE SAYING THAT
TECHNOLOGY IS TO THIS NEW
ADMINISTRATION AS OIL AND ENERGY
WAS TO THE LAST ADMINISTRATION.
WE WERE NET SELLERS.
WE DIDN'T SELL ENOUGH OF SOME OF
THE FACEBOOK, GOOGLE HOLDINGS
THAT WE HAVE.
I THINK YOU'RE RIGHT.
I THINK THERE IS AN ISSUE.
I THINK DAGEN'S ONTO SOMETHING
THAT THE LEGISLATORS ARE GOING
TO HAVE TO TAKE A FRESH LOOK.
THE PROBLEM IS, THEY DON'T
REALLY UNDERSTAND TECHNOLOGY.
SO WHEN THESE CEOS COME IN,
THEY'VE BEEN ALLEY-OOPED BY THE
HEAD OF GOOGLE AND EVEN TO SOME
EXTENT FACEBOOK.
SO WE'LL SEE.
>> NANCY, QUESTION FOR YOU,
THANKS FOR JOINING US TODAY.
I THINK FOR FOLKS AT HOME WHO
ARE WATCHING, WHO ARE LIKE I
WANT TO GET ON THIS IPO, I WANT
TO BUY UBER, HOW DO THEY GET
INTO THE MARKET ESPECIALLY GIVEN
LIKE YOU SAID EARLIER THAT THESE
COMPANIES WILL COME IN AND BUY
UP A CHUNK OF THE STOCK BEFORE
IT HITS THE MARKET.
HOW DO FOLKS AT HOME GET IN AT
THE GROUND LEVEL FOR MANY OF
THESE IPOs BEFORE THEY GO
PUBLIC.
>> THAT'S A GREAT QUESTION.
THE QUESTION THAT WE SHOULD BE
ASKING IS DO WE WANT TO GET IN.
LAST YEAR, 100IPOs, THE LAST
100, 65 ARE DOWN.
THE CLASS OF 2018 RETURNED 2.8%
LAST YEAR.
COMPARED TO THE S&P, WHICH WAS
DOWN 4.5, WAS SOMETHING, RIGHT.
BUT IT IS DIFFICULT BECAUSE YOU
HAVE A TILL RATE UP 250% AND
BLUE APRON IS NOW AT 78-CENTS A
SHARE.
YOU HAVE TO SIT BACK BECAUSE THE
REALLY SMART MONEY WILL GET IN
AND WILL GET OUT VERY QUICKLY.
YOU HAVE TO SIT BACK AND LOOK AT
HOW THE THING TRADES FOR THE
FIRST FEW MONTHS AT LEAST.
>> PATIENCE IS A VIRTUE.
DAGEN: THE VIEWERS WOULD KNOW
THAT SNAP WAS GOING TO BE A DOG
BEFORE IT EVER STARTED TRADING,
WATCHING KEVIN KELLY AND I THINK
ME TO A LESSER EXTENT ON THIS
VERY PROGRAM AND IT'S POSSIBLE,
KATHLEEN SMITH FROM RENAISSANCE
SAID THIS, NANCY, REAL QUICK,
THAT IT'S POSSIBLE THAT YOU SEE
THE IPO MARKET IS JUST CLOSED
FOR NEW ISSUES IN THE FIRST
MONTHS OF THE YEAR IF THIS KIND
OF VOLATILITY DOESN'T CLEAR UP
AND THIS IS OUTSIDE OF THE
GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN.
>> YOU'RE DEAD RIGHT.
IF I WERE GOING TO TAKE MY
COMPANY PUBLIC, I WOULDN'T DO IT
IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.
I THINK WE'LL GET A NATURAL
MARKET SLOWDOWN AND WE'VE GOT
THE REGULATORY SLOWDOWN.
I THINK THAT'S GOOD FOR STOCKS
BECAUSE A ROBUST IPO YEAR IS
USUALLY ONE OF THE SIGNS OF A
BLOW-OFF.
[ LAUGHTER ]
>> I'D LIKE TO SEE THEM SLOW
DOWN.
DAGEN: NANCY, GREAT TO SEE YOU.
YOU'RE WELCOME HERE IN NEW YORK