SEE NOW WHAT UKRAINE DOES.
BACK TO YOU.
BRIAN: JOINING US NOW IS ARMY
VETERAN AND VP FOR NATIONAL
SECURITY AND FOREIGN POLICY,
JAMES CARAFANO.
JAMES, GREAT TO HAVE YOU WITH US
TODAY.
A RATHER ODD HISTORY LESSON FROM
VLADIMIR PUTIN THAT CULMINATES
IN WHAT SOUNDS LIKE HIS DESIGNS
ON ALL OF UKRAINE.
YOUR THOUGHTS ON HIS SPEECH.
>> WELL, CLEARLY THE CRISIS
ISN’T OVER.
BASICALLY SAYING HE ACCEPTS THE
INDEPENDENCE OF THE BREAKAWAY
REGIONS, THAT’S MEANINGLESS.
THEY’RE ALREADY THERE.
THEY’RE A WASTELAND.
PUTIN’S NEVER GOING TO GIVE THEM
BACK.
HONESTLY, I’M NOT SURE THE
UKRAINIANS WANT THEM BACK OTHER
THAN THEY’RE ACTUALLY UKRAINIAN
TERRITORY.
SO WHY WOULD HE GO THROUGH ALL
OF THIS MESS, 100,000 TROOPS, BY
THE WAY, NONE OF THEM LINED UP
WITH DONBAS, JUST TO DO THIS?
HE COULD HAVE JUST DONE THIS
WITH THE STROKE OF A PEN, SO IT
REALLY SUGGESTS IN THIS CRISIS
IS NOT OVER.
AND THEN WHAT TO MAKE OF THE
SPEECH, WELL, LIKE EVERYTHING
PUTIN TILL HAS LOTS OF OPTIONS
ON THE TABLE.
HE CAN CONTINUE TO USE THE
REPUBLICS AS AN EXCUSE FOR
CONFLICT, HE CAN LAUNCH THAT
WIDER CONFLICT, HE CAN CONTINUE
TO SEE WHAT HE CAN TRY TO
SQUEEZE OUT OF WESTERN
CONCESSIONS BY THREATENING WAR.
SO I THINK FOR HIM ALL OPTIONS
ARE STILL ON THE TABLE.
BRIAN: JAMES, IS THAT THE
PROBLEM?
I MEAN, IT DOES SEEM LIKE ALL
OPTIONS ARE ON THE TABLE FOR
PUTIN.
HE HASN’T LOST ANY OPTIONS.
HE HASN’T BEEN CONSTRAINED IN
THE LEAST THROUGHOUT THIS.
NOW WE HEAR ABOUT SANCTIONS ON
THE BREAKAWAY REGIONS.
THOSE WOULD SEEM TO HIT
UKRAINIANS POTENTIALLY HARDER
THAN ANYONE ON THE RUSSIAN ARE
SIDE. IS THE BIDEN
ADMINISTRATION SIMPLY GIVING
PUTIN TOO MUCH ROOM TO OPERATE
HERE?
>> WELL, LOOK, I THINK THE
SANCTIONS ARE JUST, THEY’RE JUST
BLAH BLAH, THEY’VE NEVER BEEN
SUPER RELEVANT.
YOU’RE SANCTIONING REASONS WHERE
NOBODY’S DOING BUSINESS ANYWAY.
BIG DEAL.
THE MASSIVE SANCTIONS THAT
YOU’RE THREATENING RUSSIA WITH
ARE FINANCIAL.
I MEAN, THEY’RE STILL GOING TO
BE ABLE TO SELL OIL.
THEY CAN SELL OIL TO CHINA, IF
THERE’S A WAR, OIL’S GOING TO BE
MORE VALUABLE.
THE RUSSIANS WILL FIND OTHER
WAYS TO DO WIZ. -- BUSINESS.
LOOK AT NORTH KOREA.
POOREST COUNTRY ON THE PLANET,
THEY CAN BUILD A WORLD CLASS
NUCLEAR PROGRAM AND FIGURE TO
OUT A WAY TO CONTINUE FINANCING
IT.
THE RUSSIANS WILL SUFFER, BUT
RUSSIANS HAVE BEEN SUFFERING FOR
YEARS NOW, AND PUTIN STILL HAS
IRON-CLAD CONTROL OVER ALL THE
SECURITY APPARATUS.
SO IT DOES SEEM LIKE HE HAS LOTS
OF LEVERS TO PULL.
AND TO YOUR POINT, I THINK IT’S
BEEN THE PROBLEM WITH THE U.S.
STRATEGY TO BEGIN WITH, IT’S
VERY OBAMA-LIKE, IT’S CLASSIC
BIDEN.
IT’S INCREMENTAL.
IT’S NOT REALLY WANTING TO BE
INVOLVED IN THIS, IT’S DOING A
LITTLE BIT AND A LITTLE BIT
MORE, AND WHAT YOU’RE DOING IS
THE IS THING WE WOULD NEVER DO
IN THE MILITARY, WHICH IS
SOCIALLY LET THE OH GUY -- OTHER
GUY HAVE CHOICES AND BE REACTING
TO HIS CHOICES RATHER THAN
TRYING TO SET THE CONDITIONS.
LET’S JUST SAY THAT SOMEHOW WE
AVOID AN INVASION HERE.
FIRST OF ALL, IT’S NOT OVER
BECAUSE IT WAS NEVER ABOUT
UKRAINE.
IT’S ABOUT PUTIN REABSORBING
THESE STATEMENTS, DISSOLVING
NATO, PUSHING AMERICA OUT OF
EUROPE, MAKING CHINA HAPPY.
THE CRISIS IS GOING TO CONTINUE.
IT’S NEVER ABOUT THAT.
THE POINT IS, IS THIS
ADMINISTRATION DOESN’T HAVE AN
ANSWER FOR DEALING WITH THE
ISSUE.
IT’S DOING WHAT IT DID IN
GETTING OUT OF AFGHANISTAN, IT’S
TRYING TO FIND WAYS TO GET IT
OFF THE TABLE.
BRIAN: SO HOW DO THEY FLIP THIS?
I ACTUALLY THINK A LOT OF PEOPLE
ARE APPREHENDING THIS ABOUT THE
SITUATION.
IT FEELS LIKE THEY HAVE NO
ANSWER.
WE’RE ALWAYS PLAYING FROM
BEHIND.
PUTIN HOLDS ALL THE CARDS.
HE OBVIOUSLY HOLDS ALL THE CARDS
ON ENERGY.
IF THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION WAS
GOING TO GET AHEAD OF THIS AND
STOP LETTING PUTIN DICTATE THE
CONDITIONS, WHAT WOULD BE STEP
NUMBER ONE THAT YOU WOULD BE
LOOKING FOR RIGHT NOW?
>> WELL, LOOK, I MEAN, I THINK
YOU HAVE TO MAKE VERY CLEAR
THERE ARE NO ADDITIONAL, THERE
ARE NO ADDITIONAL -- THERE IS NO
COMPROMISE.
AND THE STRONGEST WAY TO MAKE
THAT IS TAKE YOUR MOST SEVERE,
HEAVIEST SANCTIONS AND JUST
PULMO’EM THEM -- POEM EL THEM
NOW.
IF HE’S GOING TO INVADE, HE’S
GOING TO INVADE.
THE SANCTIONS AREN’T GOING TO
STOP HIM.
GET AHEAD OF THE CURVE, PUNISH
HIM FOR THAT AND SEND A SIGNAL
THAT YOU’RE -- BUT THE MOST
IMPORTANT THING IS, LOOK,
THERE’S ONLY TWO REASONS WHY WE
CARE ABOUT PUTIN.
HE’S GOT A BIG ARMY, AND HE
SELLS PEOPLE LOTS OF ENERGY.
IF YOU TAKE THOSE TWO THINGS OFF
THE TABLE REGARDLESS WHAT
HAPPENS TO UKRAINE, PUTIN IS
CHECK MAY NOTED.
THIS ADMINISTRATION -- CHECK
MATED.
ALLIES HAVE TO DO THEIR PART, WE
HAVE TO DO OUR PART.
AMERICA’S GOT TO BE ENERGY
INDEPENDENT, HAS TO BE, AND WE
HAVE TO HAVE -- EUROPE HAS TO
HAVE A PLAN FOR RELIABLE,
AFFORDABLE, ABUNDANT ENERGY.
IF YOU DON’T DO THOSE TWO
THINGS, WE’RE JUST GOING TO GO
BACK AND PLAY THIS GAME WITH
PUTIN AGAIN REGARDLESS WHAT
HAPPENS.
BRIAN: IT’S OBVIOUS EUROPE
DOESN’T HAVE THAT PLAN, AND IN
AMERICA WE’RE MAKING IT HARDER
TO BUILD PIPELINES, SO WE’RE
DOING IN THE -- GOING IN THE
WRONG DIRECTION ON THAT.
BUT, JAMES, YOU’RE RIGHT, IT’S
ABOUT CONVENTIONAL POWER AND
ENERGY, AND UNTIL WE SEE
SOMETHING ON THOSE TWO FRONTS, I
DON’T THINK THIS SITUATION