JUDY WOODRUFF: Voters in Taiwan elect their next president on Saturday.
For decades, the island's status has been a contentious issue between the United States
and mainland China. The communist government in Beijing considers Taiwan a breakaway province
that needs to ultimately come under its control. The United States considers the island a real
democracy, and has pledged to defend it against a mainland attack.
The results of the upcoming election could determine the fate of Taiwan and have a major
impact on U.S.-China relations.
"PBS NewsHour" special correspondent Divya Gopalan has the story.
DIVYA GOPALAN: Chanting victory, the crowd welcomes Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen
in one of her last rallies before voters go to the polls in a campaign dominated by two
political parties, one vying for closer ties with the United States and the other with
China.
TSAI ING-WEN, Taiwanese President (through translator): Safeguarding our autonomy and
democracy is what I have been doing during the past four years.
DIVYA GOPALAN: Pulling away from China, Taiwan's powerful neighbor and biggest trading partner,
has been the cornerstone of the president's campaign.
TSAI ING-WEN (through translator): Let's expand our tourist base in Taiwan, so we won't have
to rely too much on visitors from China.
DIVYA GOPALAN: Tsai's stance has infuriated Beijing.
MAN (through translator): I think she's courageous, and that she's been a president with a road
map for Taiwan's future.
MAN (through translator): Do you Taiwanese want to be ruled by China? Impossible.
DIVYA GOPALAN: China has never had sovereignty over the island, which was a Japanese colony
until 1945. Yet Beijing keeps calling for its reunification, a suggestion Tsai and her
Democratic Progressive Party have flatly rejected.
There's a real festive atmosphere here. It's hard to believe that, less than a year ago,
many people had written off Tsai Ing-wen's chances of winning a second term. And that's
mainly due to her administration pushing through unpopular social and labor reforms.
But in the past few months, several events outside of Taiwan, like the U.S.-China trade
war and the Hong Kong protests, have boosted her popularity.
The prospect of another Tsai term doesn't sit well in Beijing, which has attempted to
exert control by both trying to lure Taiwan with economic incentives and threats of invasion
and isolation.
Under Tsai's tenure, seven countries have given into pressure from Beijing and broken
diplomatic ties with Taiwan, leaving only 15 nations still recognizing the government
of Taipei. Even the United States doesn't have full diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
Yet Washington is Taipei's most important ally, due to a longstanding agreement to help
defend the nation from attack or invasion. Last year, Washington passed multiple bills
to enhance relations and approved $2.2 billion in arm sales.
Aligning with Taiwan is a strategic way for Washington to counter China's growing influence
in the region.
JOSEPH WU, Taiwanese Foreign Minister: We view the Chinese threat as real. They have
been gearing up their military preparations against Taiwan. You have seen the military
exercises along the Taiwan Strait, and not just air force, but also their navy.
DIVYA GOPALAN: Joseph Wu is Taiwan's foreign minister.
JOSEPH WU: The Chinese also build up their missile capabilities, and they are very threatening.
And we understand the Chinese also have that ambition of take Taiwan over, and we need
to be prepared for that.
DIVYA GOPALAN: Minister Joseph Wu says there is also concern that China is trying to intervene
in these elections.
JOSEPH WU: The Chinese are using modern technology, going through the Facebook or Twitter or a
telecommunications mechanism called Line. They try to infiltrate into these mechanism
or platforms by creating false information to make the public believe the current government
is not trustworthy.
DIVYA GOPALAN: Social media platforms are a key battleground, with an estimated 90 percent
of Taiwan's population active online.
The government recently passed a law against political interference and foreign infiltration.
While bigger companies like Google and Facebook have agreed to police their platforms, civil
society groups have also joined the race to expose misinformation.
Billion Lee co-founded the nonprofit open source site CoFacts. Questionable information
is highlighted by volunteers around the world. She says their site has been awash in misinformation
about the president, the posts mostly originating from China.
She points out one of many trying to discredit Tsai Ing-wen's doctorate from the London School
of Economics.
BILLION LEE, CoFacts: "She is a president without a Ph.D. degree. She has no personality.
She cannot becoming leader. Shame on the country. Please forward this to your friends as much
as you could."
DIVYA GOPALAN: China's preferred candidate is Han Kuo-yu. He's been described as Taiwan's
Donald Trump.
HAN KUO-YU, Taiwanese Presidential Candidate (through translator): The Taiwanese people
are no longer happy; 23 million people in Taiwan now all feel heavy and suffocated.
We are confused about our future. Young people are left behind by the international community,
and the world has gradually forgotten about us.
DIVYA GOPALAN: The 62-year-old blames the ruling party for deteriorating relations with
Beijing and describes himself as the president for the common people.
MAN: He is trying to bring all the poor people to upgrade their living standard.
WOMAN (through translator): China has become a superpower now. If we can help each other,
we will both rise up.
DIVYA GOPALAN: Han represents the opposition Kuomintang Party, which favors closer ties
with Beijing, arguing it would bring more economic benefit and security for Taiwan,
a view supported by much of the older generation.
SHELLEY RIGGER, Visiting Scholar, National Taiwan University: On average, there seems
to be a pretty big generation gap. Why do you think that is?
DIVYA GOPALAN: Shelley Rigger is a visiting scholar at the National Taiwan University.
She has been holding focus groups as part of her research on the political attitudes
of Taiwanese youth.
TONY YANG, Student: I believe that a lot of old people, they think that it's important
to focus on economy more than identity.
DIVYA GOPALAN: All in their early 20s, the participants are students or research assistants
at the university.
THOMAS WONG, Student: What U.S. current relationship really gives to Taiwanese people is a new
hope for rejoining the global society. That's something really exciting for us, especially
for the younger generation.
DIVYA GOPALAN: Topics covered include international relations, identity issues, and the Hong Kong
protest, which has impacted the elections.
KENNY FANG, Student: We have this kind of connection with those protesters, not only
emotionally, but also practically.
DIVYA GOPALAN: Hong Kong has been rocked by more than seven months of protests. The demonstrators
are calling for more democracy and less interference from Beijing in Hong Kong's affairs.
The city operates under China's one-country/two-systems model, which Beijing is touting as example
for Taiwan if it comes under Chinese control.
SHELLY LU, Research, National Taiwan University: It motivated many originally politically apathetic
young people to vote.
We see the videos from the Hong Kong protest and police violence. And that makes many people
think that, would we want this kind of lifestyle, if possibly we are invaded by China?
DIVYA GOPALAN: Tsai Ing-wen has been vocal in her support for the demonstrators. And
Taiwan has become a safe haven for dozens who have fled Hong Kong fearing arrest, like
this 20-year-old former student who wanted to remain anonymous. He arrived just before
the new year.
MAN (through translator): I think of suicide sometimes. The other protesters with me were
arrested one by one. It is very painful, torture for me.
DIVYA GOPALAN: The upcoming elections are adding to his anxiety.
MAN (through translator): If the opposition wins the elections, they are like the pro-China
politicians in Hong Kong. I would probably have to go back to Hong Kong.
DIVYA GOPALAN: Also adding to China's ire was the Taiwanese government's move to capitalize
on the U.S.-China trade war.
Syaru Shirley Lin is a professor at the University of Virginia, and the author of the book "Taiwan's
China Dilemma."
SYARU SHIRLEY LIN, University of Virginia: And in recent years, with the U.S.-China trade
war, what the rivalry between the U.S. and China has done, of course, is to accelerate
some of these manufacturers' move, because of policy incentives to leave China and move
back to Taiwan.
DIVYA GOPALAN: And a different kind of trade war has been brewing in Taipei's bubble tea
shops. Consumers of Taiwan's favorite drink, frustrated by China's ownership claims and
those sympathetic to the Hong Kong protesters, are boycotting outlets seen as pandering to
China.
SU HSIEN TI, Bubble Tea Fan (through translator): Some companies label their brands are from
Taiwan, China, implying that Taiwan is part of China. So we avoid those places as a political
stance.
SUI KAI XIANG, Bubble Tea Fan (through translator): I don't normally boycott the shops, but, whenever
possible, we will choose bubble tea shops which support the Hong Kong protests.
DIVYA GOPALAN: China's growing might and American interest in expanding influence in the region
have left those on the island voting not just for their future, but also casting ballots
for the interests of the world's two most powerful countries.
For the "PBS NewsHour," I'm Divya Gopalan in Taipei.