JACKIE: EDWARD LAWRENCE THANK
YOU FOR THAT.
MEANTIME FOR MORE ON ALL OF THIS
WELCOME RANKING MEMBER OF THE
HOUSE BUDGET COMMITTEE
CONGRESSMAN JASON SMITH, MACRO
TREND ADVISORS FOUNDING PARTNER
MITCH ROSCHELLE.
GREAT TO HAVE YOU BOTH US
TONIGHT, CONGRESSMAN, ASK YOU
FIRST, GET REACTION PRESIDENT
BIDEN ESSENTIALLY DENYING U.S.
IS IN RECESSION.
ALL WEEK THEY HAVE BEEN TRYING
TO REWRITE THE DEFINITION AND IN
A STATEMENT TODAY I WOULD LIKE
TO HIGHLIGHT THE FACT THEY WOULD
LIKE TO CALL THIS A TRANSITION
PERIOD.
YOUR THOUGHTS?
>> JACKIE, THE BIDEN
ADMINISTRATION AND WASHINGTON
DEMOCRATS NEED TO WAKE UP TO
REALITY.
EVERY AMERICAN UNDERSTANDS WHAT
THE ECONOMY IS LIKE RIGHT NOW.
FOR THE LAST 75 YEARS ANYTIME
THE REAL GDP HAS DECREASED TWO
CONSISTENT QUARTERS WE’RE IN A
RECESSION.
REAL WAGES, REAL WAGES AMONGST
AMERICANS HAVE DROPPED 1.5%
SINCE JOE BIDEN TOOK OATH OF
OFFICE.
GUESS WITH?
IN HIS FIRST 18 MONTHS, EVERY
MONTH WAGES DROPPED.
105 POINTS PRIOR TO HIM BEING IN
THE WHITE HOUSE, 10OUT OF THOSE
105 MONTHS REAL WAGES HAVE GONE
UP.
INFLATION IS UP 13.8% BECAUSE OF
JOE BIDEN’S RECLESS SPENDING
POLICIES.
WE ARE IN A RECESSION.
I HOPE THAT HE WILL WAKE UP.
HE ALSO SAID THAT INFLATION WAS
ONLY TRANSITORY.
JACKIE: YEAH.
>> IT’S NOT.
CLEARLY THEY NEED TO WAKE UP AND
SEE REALITY?
JACKIE: JANET YELLEN CALLED IT
TRANSITORY, MITCH.
THEY WERE SHE APOLOGIZED.
DID A MEA CULPA BUT SAID SHE WAS
WRONG.
SHE IS DENYING U.S. IS CURRENTLY
IN RECESSION AS WELL.
THIS IS THE ADMINISTRATION
PLAYBOOK IF YOU WILL.
THE MARKETS SEEN THIS QUITE
SOMETIME.
OBVIOUSLY MARKETS HAVE DROPPED.
INVESTORS SKIDDISH ABOUT
INVESTING IN THE MARKET.
THE BOND MARKET IS FORECASTING
IT AS WELL.
SECOND GDP REPORT,
SECOND QUARTER OF NEGATIVE YOU
KNOW, CONTRACTION IF YOU WILL
AND THAT’S CONFIRMING WHAT WE
ALREADY KNEW, WHICH IS THAT
THINGS ARE REALLY HARD OUT
THERE.
GAS PRICES ARE UP.
FOOD PRICES ARE UP.
PEOPLE ARE REALLY STRUGGLING,
MITCH?
>> INFLATION IS INSIDIOUS.
REALLY HURTS THE LOWEST WAGE
EARNERS THE MOST AND IF YOU LOOK
AT THE GDP REPORT TODAY, IT
REALLY WASN’T VERY ENCOURAGING
BECAUSE INVENTORIES FELL WHICH
DRAGGED DOWN GDP AND EXPORTS
WHICH WAS PERHAPS ONE OF THE
SHINING LIGHTS THERE, WITH THE
VERY, VERY STRONG DOLLAR THAT WE
HAD, I THINK EXPORTS ARE GOING
TO SUFFER DOWN THE ROAD.
THIS SLOWDOWN OF THE ECONOMY IS
NOT TRANSITIONAL, IT IS NOT
TRANSITORY.
IT MAY BE WITH US FOR A WHILE.
IT MAY NOT BE A DEEP RECESSION
BUT I THINK IT WILL BE A STICKY
ONE AND BAD POLICY AS MARIA
BARTIROMO LIKES TO SAY LEADS TO
BAD OUTCOMES.
WHAT DID THEY DO TODAY?
SAME DAY OF A BAD GDP PRINT,
WHAT DID THEY DO?
ANNOUNCED MORE SPENDING.
BOGGLES THE MIND.
JACKIE: THIS IS PRETTY
MIRACULOUS.
I HAVE TO GET INTO IT.
WE HAVE SOUND BITE WITH
PRESIDENT BIDEN’S CLOSING
REMARKS ABOUT INFLATION AND
SPENDING.
LISTEN.
PRESIDENT BIDEN: THIS IS THE
STRONGEST REBOUND IN AMERICAN
MANUFACTURING IN OVER THREE
DECADES CREATING 613,000,
613,000 MANUFACTURING JOBS.
PASSING THE CHIPS BILL WILL PUT
ANOTHER $72 BILLION FOR
INCENTIVES AND TAX CREDIT TO
EXPAND SEMICONDUCTOR PRODUCTION
AND THE INFLATION REDUCTION ACT
WILL ADD ANOTHER $370 BILLION IN
CLEAN ENERGY TAX CREDITS IN
RECONCILIATION INCLUDING
INCENTIVES TO ACCELERATE
DOMESTIC PRODUCTION OF SOLAR
PANELS, WIND TURBINES, BATTERIES
AND CRITICAL MATERIALS
PROCESSING.
THAT DOESN’T SOUND LIKE
RECESSION TO ME.
JACKIE: WELL, ACTUALLY,
CONGRESSMAN, IT SOUNDS LIKE A
RECESSION TO A LOT OF DIFFERENT
PEOPLE WHEN YOU START TO BREAK
DOWN THE SPENDING, RIGHT?
THE CHIP BILL, BASICALLY GIVING
BIG SEMICONDUCTORS A TON OF
MONEY TO MAKE CHIPS IN CHINA.
WITH INFLATION REDUCTION ACT,
PUT THE FULL SCREEN UP, WE BREAK
IT DOWN, $739 BILLION IN NEW
TAXES, $369 BILLION FOR ENERGY
AND CLIMATE, AND A MERE
64 BILLION FOR EXPANSION OF
AFFORDABLE CARE ACT THAT MIGHT
HELP PEOPLE THE MOST OUT OF ALL
OF THIS SPENDING.
NONETHELESS SPENDING IS
SPENDING.
SPENDING GOT US HERE, CORRECT?
>> ABSOLUTELY.
INFLATION WAS 1.7, 1.7 PERCENT
IN FEBRUARY OF 2021.
THEY PASSED THE
2 TRILLION-DOLLAR RECKLESS
SPENDING BILL THAT THEY SAID WAS
TO FIGHT COVID.
LESS THAN 9% WENT TOWARDS COVID.
THE REST WENT TOWARDS PROJECTS
OF $783 MILLION TO CHECKS TO
PRISONERS.
$1,400,000,000 CHECKS OF
JAPANESE CITIZENS IN JAPAN OR
2 MILLION FOR A MUSEUM IN
NEW YORK.
THAT IS WHY PEOPLE ARE PAYING
MORE TO PUT FOOD ON THE TABLE,
CLOTHES ON THEIR BACKS, GAS IN
THE CAR.
JUST BECAUSE THEY PUT THE NAME
INFLATION REDUCTION ON THE ACT
THAT IT REDUCES INFLATION.
YOU DON’T SPEND HUNDREDS OF
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS AND I WISH
THEY WOULD WAKE UP, TALK TO REAL
AMERICANS INSTEAD OF THEIR WOKE
LIBERAL ADVISORS.
JACKIE: MITCH, COME BACK TO YOU
ON THE ECONOMY OVERALL.
RIGHT NOW WE’VE CONFIRMED THIS
RECESSION WE’RE IN.
SOME PEOPLE THOUGHT WE WERE IN
IT SOONER.
MANY ARE FORECASTING A PERIOD
ESSENTIALLY OF STAGFLATION WHERE
WE’RE GOING TO SEE CONTINUED
HIGH INFLATION, WE’RE GOING TO
SEE LOW GROWTH, WE’RE GOING TO
SEE THE LABOR MARKET CONTINUE,
THAT IS THE ONE THING DEMOCRATS
HANG THEIR HATS ON IS THIS LABOR
MARKET, LOW UNEMPLOYMENT, SIMPLY
TO ME SEEMS LIKE A VERY LOW
PARTICIPATION RATE IT ALMOST
SEEMS ARTIFICIAL.
THAT WE’RE IN FOR TOUGH TIMES
AHEAD.
WHAT I’M SEEING FROM THE TECH
COMPANIES, FOR EXAMPLE, AND ON
WALL STREET IS, A HEADLINE HERE
AND A HEADLINE THERE, ABOUT
LAYOFFS AND JOB CUTS AS THINGS
START TO SLOW DOWN.
IT DOESN’T HAPPEN OVERNIGHT?
>> JACKIE, AS YOU KNOW IN THE
MIDDLE OF CORPORATE EARNINGS
SEASON FOR SECOND QUARTER AND
YOU KNOW THERE IS A PRESS
RELEASE GETS ISSUED IN THE
MORNING AND A CONFERENCE CALL AT
SOME POINT.
WHEN YOU LISTEN TO CEOs AND
CFOs ON THAT CONFERENCE CALL
THEY ALL TALK ABOUT CONTROLLING
STEPPING.
IF YOU DON’T KNOW WHAT
CONTROLLING SPENDING MEANS THAT
IS A METAPHOR WE’RE GOING TO CUT
HEADS.
WE’RE GOING TO CUT THE BOTTOM
10% OF THE WORKFORCE IN A
COMPANY JACK WELCH STYLE, OR
WE’LL DO HIRING FREEZE OR FREEZE
WAGES.
ALL OF THOSE ARE BAD.
IT IS INEVITABLE THAT IS GOING
TO HAPPEN.
ONE LAST THING YOU SAID LABOR
PARTICIPATION RATE, YOU’RE
ABSOLUTELY RIGHT, LAST MONTH’S
JOBS REPORT THAT ADMINISTRATION
WAS JUMPING UP AND DOWN ABOUT,
300,000 PLUS JOBS TERRIFIC.
AT THE SAME TIME 300,000 PLUS
PEOPLE LEFT THE WORKFORCE.
JACKIE: RIGHT.
>> THAT IS WHY THE UNEMPLOYMENT
RATE IS LOW BECAUSE PEOPLE ARE
LEAVING THE WORKFORCE.
JACKIE: I LOVE THE STAT FOR
THOSE STILL IN THE WORKFORCE,
STILL LOOKING FOR A JOB, THEY
COULD HAVE TWO JOBS IF THEY WANT
THEM.
THAT IS WHAT IS GOING ON RIGHT
NOW.
A LOT TO WATCH, A LOT TO FOLLOW.