amna: It has been two weeks
since the FBI conducted a
court-approved search of former
president Donald Trump's home,
and we are starting to get a
sense for how that and other
investigations around Mr. Trump
are influencing Republican
voters.
And tomorrow, New York and
Florida hold primary elections
that will test the direction of
the democratic party.
Two -- to analyze all of this,
we turn to Amy Walter of the
cook political report with Amy
Walter.
And Annie linskey of the
Washington post.
Tamara Keith is away.
We have new NBC poll numbers
that I would love to get your
take on those investigations
into former president trump.
The majority of people asked,
say that they want those to
continue the party breakdown is
interesting.
92% of Democrats say the
investigation will continue.
27% of Republicans.
67% of independents.
Amy: I think going into the
hearings on January 6, the
feeling was that this was not
going to change voters opinions
about the focus of the election,
the salience of this issue in
the upcoming midterm elections.
I think what has happened over
the course of the last few weeks
is the attention has been almost
solely on president trump and
the role he played on January 6.
There has been no defense on the
part of Republicans to make this
a more complete gated or maybe
muddy the waters on this issue
because Republicans boycotted
the January 6 committee.
Then you put on top of it
mar-a-lago and the focus on the
other legal challenges, shall we
say, for the former president in
places like Georgia and new
York.
For the last few weeks, what
voters have been hearing a lot
about, whether they are paying
attention or not, but in the
ambient noise has been about
Donald Trump, the election
denial, and the questions around
whether or not what he did was
illegal in a place like Georgia.
I think voters do care about it.
What we are going to have to
find out is whether it is more
important to them than other
issues that we know are on the
table.
Amna: These investigations could
drive voter enthusiasm among
Republicans.
Annie, I want to ask you about
democratic voter enthusiasm.
Enthusiasm, as the polls show
among Republicans, remain high.
It is striking when you look at
these numbers.
This is a new NBC news poll.
When you look at the growth
among democratic voters who say
they have a high interest in the
midterms, it is now at 66%.
They closed the gap with
Republicans, up from 61% in may
and 50% in March.
What do you make of that?
Annie: When I have been talking
to democratic and even
Republican strategists, they are
acknowledging they initially
thought abortion in the roe V.
Wade decision would be helpful
for Democrats around the
margins.
I think what is happening and
what Democrats and Republicans
are saying is that they were
wrong about that.
It seems like it has caused a
bigger shift in voter enthusiasm
among Democrats than they had
initially thought.
It is rare for a strategist to
admit that I ran halfway
through, before there has been
an election, but you are seeing
it with increasing voter
registration among women and
across-the-board in a number of
states.
The other piece is abortion has
been in the news in a way that a
lot of people did not
anticipate.
They did not realize you would
have these national stories
about a 10-year-old becoming
pregnant and her family feeling
she needed to cross state lines
to get the care that was needed.
I think these stories, there has
been a drumbeat of them over the
summer, to where there has been
-- it has not faded from the
news the way and he expected
that it would.
Amy: I also think many
Republicans thought that the
mar-a-lago search with increase
Republican enthusiasm.
I heard, this is going to help
the base.
It has been opposite.
.
When you look at the NBC poll,
29% of Democrats now say this
topic is an issue to the threat
of democracy.
17% of Republicans feel
similarly.
It has energized some, but it
has energized the other party.
Annie: That threat to democracy
number was interesting.
Amna: You continue to track
primary races leading up to the
general election in November.
We have had a lot of focus about
the Republican races, what it
means for the direction of the
party.
Tomorrow, New York and Florida,
a couple big primary races there
that have a lot to say about the
direction of the democratic
party.
What is at stake here as you
look at it?
What are you watching?
Amy: We were talking about this
earlier.
I am more interested in a
special election happening
tomorrow then the primaries.
There is a lot of focus on the
primaries because in New York,
you have a number of well-known,
longtime democratic incumbents.
Some are facing off against each
other.
But the district we are fake --
we are paying attention to is in
the Hudson valley.
This is a very evenly divided
district.
Biden won it by two points in
the last election.
This is a place where we are
going to get our first road test
on the messaging, especially on
abortion.
Democrats leaning into the issue
of abortions.
Republicans, leaning into the
economy and inflation.
Again, it is a special election,
it is in August, so we have to
be careful to put those caveats
out there.
It certainly can give us a sense
for what voters, how those
issues are playing with voters
in the swing districts that
Republicans absolutely need to
win if they will have a big
night in November.
Amna: What are you watching?
Annie: When you look at the
primaries, and this is a rare
week where there are some big
democratic primaries, for the
last few weeks it has always
been focused on the Republican
side, but with the democratic
primaries, there are some big
tension points.
One is with Sean Patrick
Maloney.
He is the head of the democratic
congressional campaign
committee, the top Democrat who
is in charge of getting other
Democrats elected.
He is facing a tough challenge
from the left.
These -- his people say he feels
comfortable, that conventional
wisdom is that he should be
fine.
But it is August.
And it is very hard to.
.
Pull in these races and you
don't really know what the shape
of the electorate is going to
be.
That is where you could have the
biggest headline.
Of course, if he loses, it would
be an earthquake for Democrats.
If it comes close, it will be a
test of the Progressive wing of
the party, and how much strength
they have.
So far this year, there strength
has been mixed.
This is when to give you either
a capstone of wow, they have
this unexpected strength then
you will have a new Progressive
star coming out of New York, and
we know how that looks.
Or it is like an establishment
strikes back narrative.
It.
.
Will be one of the two.
Amna: We have not seen much of
president Biden or vice
president Harris out on the
trail.
They are coming off a couple of
big wins legislatively.
.
Does this surprise you?
Amy: They may go out to sell the
big wins they have had.
But you are not going to see a
lot of Democrats inviting them
to come in campaign.
The other thing in the poll that
puts a little bit of cold water
on enthusiasm among Democrats is
the fact that president Biden's
job approval rating is still
very low, especially by
historical standards.
Only at 42% job approval rating.
Is handling the economy deeply
underwater.
He is still not exactly popular.
I think what has happened is
these past few weeks, the focus
has been on the former
president.
Not on the current president.
That has actually -- and
abortion.
And that has actually helped
Democrats more than the success
that Biden and Democrats in
congress have had.
Amna: Will we see more of them
on the trail?
Annie: In some places are the
Washington post did a piece
where we polled 60 campaigns, 60
democratic campaigns to say
luck, do you want Joe Biden and
Kamala Harris to come?
?
Most of them did not respond to
us.
The ones that did, there was a
lot of hesitation.
Amna: Silence sometimes speaks
volumes.
Annie linskey, Amy Walter, thank
you so much.
Annie: Thank you.
Amy: You're welcome.