Hello so it’s May 7, 2020. I’m going to start dating my videos from now on because
oterhwise in five years time people might not realise I’m talking about what its going
on now on May 7 2020.
And what I want to talk about today is the future of cities.
What is the future of cities?
This is something I’ve been thinking about off and on for many years, but Covid 19 has
brought it to the fore hence my talking about it today.
Many are already describing 2020 as one of those “turning point” years, perhaps like
1066, 1815, or 1945 – years after which the way we operate really did change.
Maybe. I always say that change is gradual. Even something like Covid - that seems sudden
- has in many ways just accelerated things that were already happening.
Anyway. Cities.
Ever since cities have existed people have been migrating to them. Could Covid mark the
beginning of the great de-urbanisation – the point at which people start leaving them?
It all depends on how we cope with the virus, of course. Will a cure or a vaccine be found?
Will that cure or vaccine be enough to satisfy people’s concerns about infection and safety?
If not, we are going into a very different world...
If Covid remains a thing - and I’m nit sure it will - but if it does, People won’t want
to sit or stand on crowded trains, eat in crowded restaurants or laugh in crowded comedy
clubs. If social distancing, even by only one metre, becomes the norm, then fewer people
will be allowed into restaurants, bars, comedy clubs, theatres, concert halls, sports arenas
and so on.
With fewer people attending, the price will go up – and the quality of the experience
will come down. Crowds are essential to most entertainment – whether sport or theatre
or comedy. They intensify the experience. Sparsely populated rooms have nothing like
the same atmosphere.
In comedy clubs we always advise promoters to sit people close together. Laughter is
a herd thing. It’s infectious. Distance people and they don’t laugh as much.
But crowds are an essential feature of a city. We might moan about them – I can’t stand
them to be honest (unless they’re paying to see me) – but they are part and parcel
of living in a vibrant city, whether it’s on public transport, on the streets or in
places where people gather.
In a Covid-19 world, however, the one thing you don’t want is crowds.
It still amazes me just how desirable a place London became in the lead up to 2020. I’m
not just talking about the last couple of years, but over the course of my entire life
(from the 1970s onwards). Everyone seemed to want to come to London, from the glitterati
to the illegal migrant.
“Why?” I would ask myself. It’s so crowded, so expensive, it’s so dirty, so full of
crime, of anger; nobody smiles, nobody says hello, everybody’s miserable, it’s impossible
to enjoy a decent standard of living.
And yet people kept coming.
It’s not just London but every booming city – from New York to LA to Tokyo to Shanghai.
As in the Industrial Revolution, but only more so, so many people seemed to be moving
from rural and suburban to urban. We dreamed of rural idylls, we talked about them – but
our actions spoke louder and we lived in cities.
Eventually there is a saturation point, however. The accommodation is just too expensive, the
day-to-day living standards too grimy. People begin choosing other options. It seemed like
we were reaching that point. Mind you, I’ve been saying that point for yonks - and yet
people keep coming.
Why do people want to live in London? They come here here for the same reason Dick Whittington
did in the 1370 or whenever it was.. To seek their fortune.
To find work, to find friendship, to find love.
But tech is obviating the need to be in cities. It has made so many of the reasons to be in
cities redundant. So much of what made them desirable – the services, the sociability,
the sophistication – can be provided by the internet.
You don’t need to be in London to work. You can come in for essential meetings, but
much of your work – talking, trading, thinking, deciding – can now be done remotely. (That
doesn’t bode well for office blocks).
You don’t need to be in London for entertainment. You can watch movies in your house, you can
watch sport in your house, you can play games online, you can laugh at comedy online. Live
online pub quizzes have recently taken off. I’m attending a 50th birthday party this
Friday night on Zoom. Many of the nice restaurants and the craft beer bars near me are now delivering.
Shopping has long since gone online. Basic consultations with GPs are being conducted
remotely, and that now is the norm. Therapy and counselling have gone online. AA meetings
are being held online.
Education is getting a much needed kick up the backside to move it into the 21st century.
So much of what we learn at school or university can be done online and remotely. Why do children
need to be in classes with 20 or 30 other children born between September and August
with one teacher at the front? There are other ways to learn.
Self-driving cars, if and when they come, using the internet of things to communicate
with other vehicles, traffic lights and navigation systems, promise quicker, cheaper, crowd-free
travel. They will make migration away from cities all the more practical.
As for finding love, dating apps have long since been the new norm. You don’t need
to go to bars or clubs any more. Algorithms that understand you better than you do yourself,
will find partners for you.
People are already going on virtual dates. Drinking wine together, talking, vetting each
other. Even sex itself is going online.
Casual hook-ups in a Covid world look rather less desirable. But there is sexting, video
sex, cam sex. I narrated a documentary last week (in my new home studio) about robots.
Robot sex dolls are a thing apparently. Holographic pornography soon will be.
What will the future be for the “oldest profession”? Surely that too is heading
online. Sex is going to get cleaner.
If fewer and fewer office workers are in cities, what about those who serve them coffee in
the morning on their way to work? Or clean their offices after they’ve left? The waiters,
the cleaners, the drivers?
Many live in crowded dormitories, trying to save money. What is their future in this new
world of empty cities? If there is no work for them, they will go elsewhere.
City centres could become ghost towns. We might see the return of squatting.
People won’t travel to other cities, unless they really want or have to. (And with fewer
people travelling, the cost of travel – from plane tickets to hotel rooms – will increase).
Instead staycations – where people stay at home and take time off to read, relax and
pamper themselves will become a thing. Businesses that cater to this will surely grow.
Or they’ll travel to open spaces – woods, moors, mountains, beaches, parks..
In a world in which the day-to-day risk of infection is high, in which people don’t
want crowds, we will see a turnaround in the fate of cities – a mass exodus to the cheaper,
more spacious lifestyle of the country.
How do you invest in all of this? Surely all roads lead to tech. The simplest way to get
exposure is via the Nasdaq, which, for UK investors, is tracked by the ETF (LSE: EQQQ).
The counter-argument of course, is that people have been moving to cities since the very
first ones were built in Ancient Mesopotamia. So this might just be a temporary blip.
It all depends on how quickly Corona is quashed.
But even if Corona is quickly quashed, many of the new norms it has created will continue
after the virus has passed. Thus it is hard to see how you go wrong with tech.
Thanks very much for watching my video. Please subscribe to my channel.
I’ll be back with another one, just as soon as I can think of one.