Good afternoon folks.
Dan Frio here with your rate update.
So today we're gonna talk about the CPI, but I'll have a little bit of a
different format that I'm gonna try out because my videos are getting a little
lengthy and we're getting a lot of people dropping off mid kind of view.
So I'm gonna try to condense these as quick as I can.
So, pay attention and join along.
So in today's report, we're gonna talk about three things that are
basically hidden the headlines today.
That is c p i, which the inflation numbers on the consumer level.
And then throughout the rest of this article, we're gonna see what
other events are out there with the c p i year over year inflation.
So that's in one context, the Biden administration in the default of our debt.
For our debt ceiling and then the next rental prices, what's really
going on with rental prices?
So those are our three topics for today.
Without further ado, let's get into it.
We're gonna talk about what's going on in the inflation front.
Why do we focus in on this?
Because you guys are concerned what's going on with housing.
Is the housing market gonna crash?
Where's the crash?
You know, is it gonna not crash?
Is it a good time to buy?
I'm giving you guys all the information you need to make a prudent decision
what's best for you in your life.
So what we're seeing in today's world or economy is inflation's tum
link folks, and it's gonna tumble even faster once the Federal Reserve
gets caught up with technology.
Let me explain.
Here's today's Consumer Price Index.
Now this is the consumer leveled inflation.
So let me get my head outta the way and we're gonna break this down.
You can see that over on the right side here.
These are the year adjusted figures.
Look at some of these numbers.
Well, it's up four.
It's up seven.
This is in the food area.
It's still, that's still playing a big role in our economy.
But look at energy.
You go down through here fuel oil.
Okay, look, it's down 20% gasoline, down, 12% energy commodities down 12%.
Remember I kept saying, you know, my pet peeve is oil.
And these oil companies well, this is coming down pretty darn fast.
But one thing I wanna show you is that the shelter piece of this equation.
Why?
Because the shelter piece of the CPI, the consumer inflation
is a third of the number.
Look, it's almost a third, 32.7%.
So let's focus in on that.
So when you go down through here, what they're saying is, the shelter
number right now is 8.1 year over year.
Okay?
But you start lock lopping off some of these, well, let me show you.
If we go to apartments, listings.com, it's a report just out a couple weeks ago.
You go down through here and they're giving you some bad
news about that information.
You know, it's increasing, keeps increasing and increasing.
But look down through here, the Federal Reserve is basically monitoring rates
about mid last year, which would put us in right about this range.
Okay?
But if you forward fast a little bit, You're gonna have this big plummet, okay?
This is the month over month shelter number.
So if you go from a positive number up here of, you know, let's say
one and a half or so, over here it was three, but you go over here
and then you have a negative one.
So you go from one and a half positive to negative one.
It's zero.
Right.
Okay.
So if we go back to this and make this a zero and update all these
numbers, this number's gonna plummet.
That's why I'm still on the fence.
I'm saying that the, our inflation rate, once they catch up, It's
gonna be about 2.6 to 2.8%.
I had several videos.
I explained how I came up with this number before.
I'll try to find those and put 'em up here if I can find those.
Okay, so that's that part of it.
The next thing we wanna look at is the debt ceiling, because in this
equation here we have, president Biden remains optimistic that the
United States will not default on its debt because if we default on our
debt guys, it is gonna be worldwide.
Catastrophic.
Okay, so we're not gonna default on our debt.
So has the debt ceiling ever been reached before?
And what happened?
Well, let's go over this.
This might surprise you.
Since 1962 to 2011, just in that timeframe, the debt ceiling has changed 74
times and not one of them was going down.
Okay?
So basically it's like this.
If you have a partner or a person, you know that they keep getting credit
cards and they max 'em out, and you go to them and say, we're not getting
another credit card, and they're just like, oh please, just gimme
one more and I'll learn my lesson.
Okay?
Here, I'll give you another one.
Now they're on their 74th extra credit card.
Guys, you need to stop.
Okay?
So what I'm expecting in today's market, let's get over to where the
bonds are going, is the c p number actually came in better than expected.
Well, better on a trajectory of where we've been.
So the markets are pretty much liking that.
You can see here if my numbers up through this top of the screen
are out, that means they're green.
That means it's good.
Okay.
Here's what I'm talking about.
We follow onto my channel is what's going on with mortgage rates.
So we follow this number right here.
What's going on with this right now?
This is the price of a mortgage backed security bond.
So this is what we truly follow when we're trying to figure out
what's going on with mortgage rates.
This is the price of the bond as the price goes up.
In this case, it's up 17 as the price goes up, the yield or the rates.
Go down.
Okay.
So the bigger the number up, the bigger the down in the interest rates.
Okay.
So that's how this all works.
So right now we have a plus 17 in the market, so I'm expecting rates
to come down about 0.08% about that.
Nothing really to write home about.
Probably most banks won't even change their rate sheets yet
because it's not a big enough move.
But stay tuned, because all this information's gonna come around and start.
You're gonna start seeing mortgage rates coming down based
on a lot of this information.
So if you're out there and you're wondering, you know,
Dan, why do you do the videos?
What do you actually do?
Well, I'm actually a mortgage person.
So if you're out there and you need assistance with getting maybe
pre-approved, maybe kicking the tire, see how much you can get approved for,
or maybe you closed on a loan about six months ago and your rates in the sevens.
Now rates are in the six sixes.
How much money could that save you?
Well check and call us and find out.
How do you do that?
Give us a call, (844) 775-5626 or there's a scheduling button down below a
calendar event where we'll do one-on-one consultations with you guys to answer any,
you know, all the questions that you have.
So I do have an event this evening.
It's eight o'clock at Eastern Standard Time.
Check it out on my channel.
Be a live event with Nicole Nark, a fantastic realtor
outta Arkansas to go over.
All your first time home buying questions, concerns, and issues, and maybe we
can put less fear in your mind when it comes to buying a house in 2023.
Thanks so much for watching, guys.
God bless.
I'll see you next time.
Bye-bye.