MAKEEFFORTS WE MADE IN PUERTO RI IT’S BEEN AN INCREDIBLE TOUGH
SITUATION, BUT WE FOUGHT AND WE
ARE WINNING THAT ONE BIG.
WE STAND WITH PUERTO RICO.
AND WE ARE HELPING THEM TO
REBUILD BETTER AND STRONGER THAN
EVER BEFORE.
EVER BEFORE. >> PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS HAD A
THROAT SAY ABOUT PUERTO RICO
OVER THE PAST YEAR BOUNCING
BETWEEN CRITICIZING THE ISLAND’S
INFRASTRUCTURE MANAGEMENT AND
PRAISING HIS OWN RESPONSE TO
HURRICANE MARIA.
HURRICANE MARIA. LAST WEEK HE WENT FURTHER
CALLING INTO QUESTION THE DEATH
TOLL FROM THE STORM WHICH
ACCORDING TO GEORGE WASHINGTON
UNIVERSITY STUDY STANDS AT
NEARLY 3,000.
NEARLY 3,000. WE’LL SPEAK WITH PUERTO RICO’S
GOVERNOR IN JUST A MOMENT.
BUT FIRST LET’S BRING IN THE
DEAN OF THE MILKIN SCHOOL OF
PUBLIC HEALTH AT GEORGE
WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY DR. LYNN
GOLDMAN.
GOLDMAN. SHE’S CO-AUTHOR OF THE STUDY
THAT LED TO THE REVISION OF THE
OFFICIAL DEATH TOLL FROM
HURRICANE MARIA.
HURRICANE MARIA. I WANT TO READ AGAIN FOR OUR
AUDIENCE PRESIDENT TRUMP’S TWEET
OF LAST WEEK.
HE WROTE WHEN TRUMP VISITED THE
ISLAND TERRITORY LAST OCTOBER
OFFICIALS TOLD HIM IN A BRIEFING
16 PEOPLE HAD DIED FROM MARIA.
HE’S QUOTING "THE WASHINGTON
POST".
POST". THIS WAS LONG AFTER THE
HURRICANE TOOK PLACE.
AFTER MANY MONTHS IT WENT TO 64
PEOPLE.
PEOPLE. THEN LIKE MAGIC 3,000 KILLED
PEOPLE
PEOPLE PEOPLE.
PEOPLE. THEN THEY HIRED GEORGE
WASHINGTON.
WASHINGTON. THIS WASN’T DONE WITH PREVIOUS
HURRICANES BECAUSE OTHER
JURISDICTIONS KNOW HOW MANY
OTHER PEOPLE KILLED.
50 TIMES LAST ORIGINAL NUMBER.
NO WAY TWRIES PRESIDENT.
HE BLAMED DEMOCRATS FOR THE
DEATH TOLL.
DEATH TOLL. LET ME JUST SPECIFIC A LITTLE
BIT AND LET YOU ANSWER DIRECTLY
THE PRESIDENT’S TWEET.
BUT THE TERM EXCESS DEATHS.
2975 EXCESS DEATHS.
WHAT DOES THAT TERM MEAN EXACTLY
>> WHAT THAT REALLY MEANS IS
THAT COMPARED TO A NORMAL YEAR
WHEN THERE WAS NO HURRICANE WE
WOULD HAVE EXPECTED THAT 2975
PEOPLE WOULD LOST THEIR LIVES
BETWEEN SEPTEMBER OF 2017 AND
FEBRUARY OF 2018 WOULD NOT HAVE
DIED.
DIED. AND SO THAT WE CAN, THEREFORE,
ATTRIBUTE THOSE DEATHS TO
HURRICANE MARIA EITHER DIRECTLY
OR INDIRECTLY.
OR INDIRECTLY. >> WHAT DO YOU SAY TO THE
PRESIDENT QUESTIONING THAT
METHODOLOGY AND CALLING IT
MAGIC?
MAGIC? >> THERE’S NO REAL MAGIC TO IT
AT ALL.
AT ALL. WE’RE ABLE TO LOOK AT THE
OFFICIALLY CERTIFIED DEATHS THAT
COME FROM THE GOVERNMENT OF
PUERTO RICO.
PUERTO RICO. WE’RE ABLE TO UNDERSTAND THE NET
NUMBER OF PEOPLE ON THE ISLAND
AT ANY GIVEN TIME THROUGH
MIGRATION, 8% OF THE PEOPLE ON
PUERTO RICO LEFT THE ISLAND
BETWEEN SEPTEMBER 2017 AND
FEBRUARY 2018.
FEBRUARY 2018. WE HAD TO FACTOR THAT IN.
WE CAN LOOK OVER PAST YEARS, THE
PATTERNS OF DEATH BY SEASON, BY
YEAR, AND USE MATHEMATICAL MODEL
MODELSMODEL
MODELSMODEL MODELING TO MAKE SURE WE’RE NOT
CAUGHT BY RANDOM CALCULATION.
THERE’S SCIENCE WE CAN APPLY TO
COME WITH THE ESTIMATE.
IS IT EXACTLY 2975?
IT’S VERY CLOSE TO THAT, WITHIN
A FAIRLY SMALL MARGIN OF ERROR.
IT’S A STATISTICAL EXCESS.
>> DOOR GOLDMAN, IF YOU COULD,
FIRST OF ALL, HOW LONG DID YOUR
STUDY, YOUR RESEARCH STUDY TAKE
TO PUT TOGETHER?
THAT’S ONE QUESTION.
THE SECOND QUESTION IS COULD YOU
PLEASE EXPLAIN TO PEOPLE WHO ARE
LEGITIMATELY CONFUSED HOW THIS
NUMBER EXPLODED TO THE NUMBER
YOU CAME UP WITH.
HOW EASY IT IS TO FIND PEOPLE’S
DEATH, TO CATALOG DEATHS OF
PEOPLE WHO DIED AS A RESULT OF
BEING DEPRIVED OF NORMAL HEALTH
SERVICES DURING THE COURSE OF
THE HURRICANE?
THE HURRICANE? >> SO THAT IS ONE OF THE MAJOR
FACTORS IS THAT, YOU KNOW, WHEN
YOU HAVE A BREAKDOWN OF NOT ONLY
NORMAL HEALTH SERVICES, BUT ALSO
TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS, POWER
GRID GOING DOWN, THEN THERE ARE
MANY THINGS THAT CAN HAPPEN TO
PEOPLE THAT CAN LEAD TO DEATH
THAT OTHERWISE WOULDN’T HAVE
HAPPENED.
HAPPENED. FOR EXAMPLE, SOME OF THE STORIES
THAT WE HEARD WHERE PEOPLE WERE
UNABLE TO POWER OXYGEN MACHINES
THAT WERE AT HOME, WERE UNABLE
TO OBTAIN EMERGENCY ASSISTANCE
WITHIN A TIMELY FASHION BECAUSE
OF ROADS BEING DOWN, THEIR LOVED
ONES DIED AT HOME OR DIE ON THE
WAY TO HOSPITAL WHEREAS PERHAPS
IN A NORMAL YEAR THOSE PEOPLE
WOULD NOT HAVE LOST THEIR LIVES.
BUT IT TOOK A FEW MONTHS TO DO
THE WORK.
THE WORK. WE HAD TO MAKE SURE THEY HAD
ASSEMBLED THE RECORDS.
WE NEEDED TO GO THROUGH THE
AIRLINE DATA TO UNDERSTAND ABOUT
HOW MANY PEOPLE WERE COMING IN
AND OUT OF PUERTO RICO EVERY
DAY.
DAY. AND WE TOOK A LOT OF CARE WITH
THE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS TO MAKE
SURE THAT WE COULD DEVELOP A
NUMBER FOR THE GOVERNMENT OF
PUERTO RICO THAT WOULD BE CLOSE
TO REALITY AS POSSIBLE.
>> DR. LYNN GOLDMAN DEAN OF
MILKIN INSTITUTE OF PUBLIC
HEALTH AT GEORGE WASHINGTON
UNIVERSITY AND THE CO-AUTHOR OF
REPORT THAT FOUND 2975 EXCESS
DEATHS IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE
MARIA.
MARIA. WE REALLY APPRECIATE YOU WALKING
US THROUGH THOSE NUMBERS.