There's been growing speculation that Azerbaijan may be preparing to recognise the
breakaway Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.
If it does, it will become only the second country in the world to do so.
But it would also mean contravening UN resolutions and would pit it against key international actors.
So, will Baku really do it?
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Hello and welcome to the channel.
If you're new, my name is James Ker-Lindsay and here I take a look at international relations,
conflict and the origins of countries.
Around the world, there are a number of territories that exhibit
many of the characteristics of statehood - namely a defined territory,
a settled population, governance, and the ability to enter into relations
with other states - but are not recognised as states, as such.
These so-called de facto states exist in a strange place in the modern international system.
While they may effectively exist as independent countries, they enjoy limited ,if any,
acceptance on the world stage.
As a result, the quest for recognition often becomes their key
foreign policy priority.
One of the most prominent de facto states in the world
is the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.
More usually known as Northern Cyprus, it declared independence in 1983.
Almost 40 years later, it's still only recognised by Turkey.
However, for a variety of reasons I'll explain, there have been growing
suggestions that Azerbaijan may now be preparing to become the second UN member to recognize it.
But just how likely is this?
Cyprus lies in the eastern Mediterranean.
In 1960, it became independent after 82 years of British colonial rule.
As part of this, a complex power sharing agreement was put in place
between the island's Greek Cypriot community, representing 78 per cent of the population,
and the Turkish Cypriots, representing 18 per cent.
Just three years later the system collapsed and fighting broke out.
As a result, in March 1964, the United Nations Security Council established a peacekeeping
and peacemaking mission for the island.
These UN-led talks continued over the course of the next 10 years until, in 1974,
the military junta in Greece overthrew the Cypriot government as a prelude to annexing the island.
In response, Turkey invaded taking control of 36 per cent of Cyprus territory.
It now pushed for a federal settlement.
In 1977, this model was accepted by the Greek Cypriots
and then endorsed by the UN Security Council.
Despite this, on 15 November 1983 the Turkish Cypriots unilaterally
declared independence; proclaiming the creation of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, TRNC.
While this was immediately recognised by Turkey,
the move was roundly condemned by the UN Security Council.
Resolution 541 called the declaration legally invalid and called for its withdrawal.
It also called on member states to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity
of the Republic of Cyprus and not to recognise any other state on the island.
Six months later, this call was reiterated in resolution 550.
And, almost 40 years, later no other country has since recognized the TRNC.
Meanwhile, the search for a federal settlement has continued without success.
In 2004, the United Nations presented a plan
for reunification - the so-called Annan Plan.
While this was accepted by the Turkish Cypriots,
it was rejected by the Greek Cypriots in a referendum.
Then, in 2017, another initiative failed following intensive talks between the sides.
It's against this backdrop that the Turkish Cypriots went to the polls
and elected a new leader, Ersin Tatar, who rejects the very idea of a federal settlement.
Arguing that almost 40 years of talks have failed to produce an agreement,
he argues that the only acceptable option now is a two-state solution - a possibility that
has been explicitly endorsed by Turkey.
As part of this, speculation has grown that Turkey may also be preparing for another big
diplomatic push on recognition.
One of the most closely watched possible
recognisers is Azerbaijan.
Speculation that Azerbaijan may recognise the TRNC is certainly not new.
In fact, there's long been a sense in certain quarters that
Azerbaijan could be one of the most likely candidates to recognise Northern Cyprus.
Located in the south Caucasus, Azerbaijan shares close ethnic
and cultural ties to Turkey, and by extension the Turkish Cypriots.
As part of the Soviet Union,
it was unable to recognise the TRNC when it proclaimed independence in 1983.
However following its own independence, in 1991,
matters changed as ties between Ankara and Baku flourished.
Indeed, in the period leading up to the Annan plan vote, in 2004,
senior Greek Cypriot figures warned that one of the key consequences of rejecting the Plan
would be Azerbaijan's recognition of the TRNC.
Of course, this didn't happen - nor was it ever likely to have happened
for one good reason: Nagorno-Karabakh.
Regular viewers will know that I've covered Nagorno-Karabakh extensively in other videos.
But, by way of background, it was an autonomous province of Azerbaijan predominantly inhabited
by ethnic Armenians.
As the Soviet Union dissolved, it sought to break away.
This led to a bloody war between Armenia and Azerbaijan that eventually left 14 per cent of
Azerbaijan's territory under Armenian control.
Facing its own separatist challenge,
there was never any realistic prospect that Azerbaijan would have recognised the TRNC.
That said, Azerbaijan and Northern Cyprus nevertheless
did build up good bilateral relations.
In 2005, Azerbaijan became only the second country in the world
to accept TRNC passports.
In addition, Azerbaijani students began attending the universities in
Northern Cyprus and there was regular business and cultural cooperation.
But for all this, any talk of full recognition seemingly remained impossible - until now.
The big change, of course, was the 44-day war over Nagorno-Karabakh fought in November 2020.
With strong backing from Turkey, Azerbaijan regained control over
Armenian-occupied areas around the enclave, and even some of the territory within it,
before Russia managed to broker a ceasefire.
It's this, coupled with Turkey's push for a two-state solution in Cyprus that is
now feeding speculation that Azerbaijan may be prepared to recognise the TRNC.
But is this really possible?
Before answering this question, it's worth asking whether Azerbaijan would really want to do it.
Of course, many observers suspect that Ankara may now be leaning on Baku
to do it as a sign of gratitude for Turkish help in the war.
While it's not clear if this is actually the case, even if it is
there are good reasons why Azerbaijan might want to hold off on recognition.
Most obviously, having spent many years calling for the defence of its territorial integrity,
it would be hypocritical if one of its first moves after regaining control over
much of its land was to undermine the territorial integrity of another country.
While Baku would argue that its case is different from Cyprus, in truth the parallels are striking.
Moreover, it's also worth remembering that while Azerbaijan clearly won the war,
Nagorno-Karabakh still hasn't been resolved.
Russian peacekeepers may have put things on hold, but a final
settlement deal will be needed at some point.
Is it advisable to alienate important parts of the international
community and deliberately go against Security Council resolutions
when Baku may need the support of the Council, and Council resolutions of its own, in future.
Although these are strong arguments,
there's nevertheless a sense that Baku may still be tempted to go ahead and do it.
Indeed, it may feel that such a bold step would actually underscore that it no longer
regards Nagorno-Karabakh as a separatist threat.
But, if that's the case, a far more logical move in many ways
would be to recognise Kosovo, which Turkey has also championed,
and which Azerbaijan has previously held off recognising due to Nagorno-Karabakh.
Unlike recognising Northern Cyprus, which would attract real international opposition,
this would in fact be recognised by many key western countries.
But let's say that it does go ahead and recognise the TRNC, what happens then?
First and foremost, it's important to emphasise that
recognition is a sovereign prerogative of states.
Indeed, it's a fundamental element of statehood.
And while there's a general expectation that countries will follow a set of legal
principles when taking such a decision, there's no
way to compel a state to adopt a particular set of internationally agreed criteria when doing so.
In other words, any state has the sovereign right to recognise any
territory it sees fit as a state, if it so wishes.
In this regard, any decision by Azerbaijan on recognition is solely up to Baku.
It also means that it cannot be reversed by an outside body.
But, of course, Baku would come under enormous pressure to change its mind.
The most obvious and symbolically powerful way to do this
would be through a Security Council resolution condemning the move.
But while this would have enormous moral weight, it's unenforceable.
The Council could ask Azerbaijan to rethink its position.
However, it couldn't declare Baku's decision to be null and void.
After all, if this was possible, the Council would have done this against Turkey in 1983.
Still, the moral weight is not to be dismissed lightly.
Indeed, this may be the best reason why Turkey might not
in fact want to press too hard for Baku's recognition at this stage.
A resolution condemning its recognition, and reaffirming earlier resolutions, would
actually serve as a powerful reminder that the earlier resolutions are in fact still in force.
As it tries to line up other recognitions,
this may not be the message Turkey will want to put out just yet.
As for other ways to challenge the decision, another route would be for Nicosia to bring a
case against Azerbaijan at the International Court of Justice
on the grounds that Baku had violated its obligation under the UN Charter
to respect Cyprus's territorial integrity.
Given that Azerbaijan would refuse to jointly refer the matter to the Court,
Cyprus will probably have to secure a General Assembly resolution
seeking an advisory opinion from the Court.
But even if the Court did agree that recognition violated the requirement to respect Cyprus's
territorial integrity - a finding one would almost certainly expect given UN Security Council
resolutions in place on the matter - the opinion would not be binding.
Even another resolution from the General Assembly requesting Baku to comply with the Court's opinion
would carry little weight if Azerbaijan simply decided to stick to its position.
But there is one more factor that could have a major effect.
Perhaps the biggest deterrent is not the United Nations, but the European Union.
When Cyprus joined the EU, in May 2004, it officially did so as a single, undivided state.
The north is legally regarded by the EU as the sovereign territory of a member state.
If Baku were to recognise it as independent,
it would inevitably lead to retaliatory measures from the European Union.
While some would ask whether the EU would want to take such strong measures,
especially given the important energy relationship between Azerbaijan
and the European Union, in reality the members would have no choice but to act.
Even if the other members didn't want to take a tough stance,
Cyprus would almost certainly stand in the way of every possible decision it could
until the other members fell into line over such a fundamentally important issue.
The recent election of a new Turkish Cypriot leader committed to
a two-state solution of the long-running Cyprus issue,
combined with Azerbaijan's victory over Armenia, has led to raise speculation that
Baku may now follow Turkey and recognise the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.
While there's certainly excitement at the thought in certain Turkish Cypriot quarters,
will Baku really go this far having spent years defending its sovereignty on the world stage?
It would really not look good to undermine it in
another case, even as a favour to a very close ally.
And while there's little, if anything, that could be done to stop such a move if it went ahead,
let alone reverse it, it would almost certainly have serious repercussions
for Azerbaijan in terms of its relations with the European Union.
For all these reasons, there's a strong argument to be made that Azerbaijan while almost certainly
continuing to upgrade its ties to Northern Cyprus, it would actually
do better to stop short of recognition.
That said, one can't shake the sense that it might still do so anyway.
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