North Korea carried out one of its most provocative missile tests in recent years on the morning
of 27th August, hurling a ballistic missile directly over Japan that prompted the government
in Tokyo to warn residents in its path to take cover.
The missile flew over the northern island of Hokkaido and landed harmlessly in the sea,
after a flight of nearly 1,700 miles.
The missile was launched from a site near Pyongyang’s international airport, not the
usual launch site in the northeast.
The test appeared to have been of a recently developed intermediate-range Hwasong-12 missile.
It is the same sort of missile that North Korean threatened to fire on the US territory
of Guam.
Public television programs in Japan were interrupted with a rare warning screen announcing the
missile’s flight over the country.
Several bullet train lines were temporarily halted, and the government spoke of the missile
in unusually dire terms.
Shinzo Abe (Japan’s Prime Minister,) said: “North Korea’s reckless action of launching
a missile that passed over Japan is an unprecedented, serious and grave threat,”
The missile test rattled the region increasingly concerned about North Korea’s fast-advancing
missile capabilities and its increasingly bold way of demonstrating them.
In this video, Defense Updates looks into 3 definitive reasons WHY US DID NOT SHOOT
DOWN THIS MISSILE FLYING OVER JAPAN?
So, lets get started.
US has stationed classified number of Arleigh Burke class destroyers in the vicinity of
Korean Peninsula.
The Arleigh Burke class of guided missile destroyers is the United States Navy's first
class of destroyer built around the Aegis Combat System.
Currently Japan also has 6 Aegis-equipped destroyers.
The Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System is a United States DOD (Department of Defense)
Missile Defense Agency program developed to provide missile defense against short to intermediate-range
ballistic missiles.
Aegis BMD is designed to intercept ballistic missiles post-boost phase and prior to reentry.
It enables Arleigh Burke to shoot down enemy ballistic missiles by expanding the Aegis
Combat System with the addition of the AN/SPY-1 radar and Standard missile technologies.
Aegis BMD-equipped vessels can transmit their target detection information to other systems
and, if needed, engage potential threats using either the SM-2 or SM-3 missile.
Just days after North Korea tested this intermediate range ballistic missile that overflew Japan,
the U.S. Navy intercepted a medium range ballistic missile target on Aug 30 using a new Raytheon
Standard SM-6 missile.
Here are 2 points to take note:
1. The interceptor missiles are supposed to fired only when the trajectory of the incoming enemy
missile is found be heading towards Japan’s landmass.
In this case, it was clear that the North Korean missile was heading towards sea with
no potential of causing any harm.
2. Aegis BMD is effective when the missiles travel within the defended area.
The destroyers are obviously currently stationed in positions so that they protect Japan and
don’t cover the vast open waters.
Positioning the Aegis vessels to counter North Korean missile test is not a good idea, as
doing so would mean taking them away from optimal positions to defend actual targets
on land.
If US shoot down any North Korean missile which actually has no threat potential, it
will give away some of the most crucial information regarding the capabilities of Aegis BMD and
the deployment of Aegis enabled vessels.
This will enable North Korea to choose a better trajectory and optimize the other parameters
to evade the system when an actual missile strike is initiated.
It must also be noted that Aegis BMD is a threat to China and Russia too and they are
also watching the movements in Korean peninsula closely.
Both of them are likely to mine as much as data as possible to understand the abilities
of the system.
A weapon is most effective if an ambiguity about its capabilities is maintained before
the moment of actual use.
US is doing exactly this.
The United States and South Korea wrapped up their annual joint military exercises on
28th August by flying some of their most powerful warplanes in bombing drills in a show of force.
Two B-1B supersonic bombers and four F-35 stealth fighter jets from the United States
Air Force and Marine Corps joined four South Korean F-15 fighter jets in live-fire bombing
exercises over a military range in eastern South Korea, officials said.
South Korean F-15s conducted a similar bombing drill over the same range.
Whenever such joint exercises take place, North Korea accuses the South and the United
States of preparing for an invasion and often conducts its own military exercises and missile tests.
In this already tense situation, an interception of North Korean missile will be a big embarrassment
for Kim Jong Un, and provoke the volatile leader to do something nasty.
It must be noted that Seoul, capital of South Korea is within 35 miles of the border.
Covering only about 12% of the country's area, the Seoul Capital Area is home to more than
48.2% of the South Korea’s population, and is the world's third largest urban area.
Most of the North’s artillery pieces, numbering in the thousands are aimed to strike this
area, which will leads to very high causality.
Only twice before has the North fired projectiles over Japanese territory: once in 1998, prompting
a minor diplomatic crisis in Asia, and once again at the beginning of the Obama administration
in 2009.
In both those cases, the North said the rockets were carrying satellites into orbit.
In this case, it made no such claim.
While the missile did fly over Japan, it is very likely that the missile test was not
designed to signal Japan that it is now higher on the DPRK’s target list.
It has more to do with geography than anything else.
North Korea needs to accurately test its missiles to obtain a full measure of their capability
and firing them over Japan is the most obvious choice.
As the situation threatens to boil over, the main stakeholders South Korea, Japan
and US need to come up with a more effective approach in dealing with North Korea.