In this series, we will analyse teams, identify problem areas, and suggest solutions in the
form of incoming players.
We won’t follow gossip, rumours or conjecture, we don’t have inside information, and we’re
not considering the brand value of players.
Purely, their on-field performance, and their suitability for the team in question.
Today’s team is Barcelona.
Welcome to sensible transfers.
Ordinarily, these videos would analyse teams and their problem areas in order to suggest
solutions in the form of transfers.
Barcelona have pulled off two significant deals, though, so this video will, in part,
look at how Antoine Griezmann and Frenkie de Jong will fit into the side and whether
they were sensible transfers.
Ernesto Valverde will likely play some form of 4-3-3, although his use of Coutinho in
the wide left role sometimes made this look a little lop-sided.
Although Lionel Messi continues to be the best footballer on the planet, Barcelona seem
to be a little unsure of their identity except as a vehicle for his brilliance – some recent
signings, like Clement Lenglet and Arthur, do make sense, but the La Masia conveyor belt
has stuttered and Barcelona probably do need to take a strategic look at how transfer business
and youth development are carried out, especially with legends like Busquets and Pique moving
towards the end of storied careers.
Is Antoine Griezmann some of the new blood Barcelona needs?
Versatile, well-schooled in La Liga, and possessing an excellent scoring record of 0.4 goals per
90 last season, Griezmann’s £107m move from Atletico Madrid is as much a powerplay
in Spanish football as it is a sensible transfer.
In Barcelona’s likely 4-3-3, Griezmann could most straightforwardly fulfil the centre-forward
role, taking over from or alternating with Luis Suarez.
His 2.86 shots per 90, as well as his excellent goal scoring rate, show he’s well suited
to this, though Suarez’s 0.64 goals per 90, 5.89 touches in the box and 3.22 shots
per 90 show he is still more of a classic 9.
However, Griezmann offers more, as his 1.98 through passes and 2.17 smart passes per 90
indicates – he’s top ten in La Liga for both among mostly creative midfielders – and
he could play in several other positions: a left-winger who cuts inside and allows Jordi
Alba to overlap or even a right winger with Messi shifting back across to a false nine
role and Dembele starting.
This would provide Barcelona with serious pace on the counter as well as Messi’s dribbling
and creativity centrally.
There would be a slight question mark over Griezmann’s crossing – it’s not his
strongest suit as 1.4 crosses per 90 at 21% accuracy show, but he’d very much play as
an inverted winger who cuts inside, so this is not too much of a worry.
Griezmann’s combination of predatory striking instincts, work-rate, and positional excellence
in pressing, learned with Diego Simeone, all make him a valuable element of however Barcelona’s
Messi-centric attack is constructed.
Indeed, these aspects also mean he could even be deployed in a 4-4-2, either as second striker
operating in tandem with Suarez as he has done at Atleti or, more likely, ahead of Messi
in a front two of real movement and attacking threat.
This acquisition should also kill off Barcelona’s interest in Neymar.
The Brazilian’s numbers continue to be extraordinarily good – last season, he scored 0.89 goals
per 90, took 3.1 shots per 90 at 51% accuracy, and, in Europe’s top five leagues, only
Messi, David Silva and Kevin De Bruyne managed more deep completed passes per 90.
But, benching both Suarez and Dembele to field a front three of Messi-Griezmann-Neymar would
be contentious and might disrupt squad harmony; that’s before one considers the likely price
tag and Neymar’s off-field issues.
There’s no doubt at all that Neymar would improve any team in world football but given
the outlay on Griezmann and the already crowded field of Barca’s attacking options, a move
for Neymar would no longer be a sensible transfer.
Barcelona’s other big move addressed an area of some concern – a midfielder who
can break a press and add speed and verticality to transitions through carrying the ball as
much as passing it.
De Jong is, even at 22 years old, already a serious talent and his reported price tag
of £65m is, in the current market, reasonable value.
Last season he managed 14.1 final third passes per 90, 13.3 progressive passes, that is passes
that move the ball forwards 10 plus metres or into the penalty area, and 1.95 deep completed
passes per 90.
He also carried the ball well, with 3.2 dribbles per 90 at a success rate of 57%, and 3.4 progressive
runs per 90 – combined, these numbers put De Jong in elite company, even with the step
up from the Eredivisie and, crucially, add a dynamism that Barcelona’s midfield can
be lacking.
This press-breaking ability will of course be useful in La Liga, although Barcelona are
themselves the second most pressing team in the league, but will perhaps be of more use
in European competition, where teams will press Barca more than they are used to domestically.
While Valverde’s side can and will try to pass through a press, having De Jong as an
option to carry the ball with his dribbling and dynamism, or drop deep and relieve some
of the passing pressure on Sergio Busquets will enhance their ability to transition from
defence to attack against pressing sides.
Combined with the potential pace of a Griezmann in attack, and the French striker’s predilection
for a counter-attacking game, this shift could galvanise Barcelona’s attack hugely, especially
against teams who come on to them.
It’s a great transfer, even for the cost, and Barcelona now have a potentially world
class midfielder who brings something otherwise lacking to the side.
This is where Barcelona do need some work.
The departures of Thomas Vermaelen, Mateu Morey, and Jeison Murillo, whose loan ended,
as well as the rather curious saga of Marc Cucurella, rob the club more of cover than
of first team names, but the squad is thinnest at the back.
Centre-back is reasonably well-staffed, with Samuel Umtiti and Clement Lenglet competing
to line-up alongside Gerard Pique, and Jean-Clair Todibo promising.
But the squad looks light at full back, especially on the left.
Jordi Alba is the only specialist left back, while on the right, Nelson Semedo and Sergi
Roberto compete without either especially nailing down the spot.
Jordi Alba is without doubt the incumbent left back, and one of the best in the world.
For deep completed passes, successful passes collected within 25 yards of the opponent’s
goal, Alba is second only to Marcelo in Europe’s top five leagues.
But he needs cover and competition and this should be Barcelona’s one remaining priority.
Players within our data set of aged 27 or under and having played over 800 minutes that
come close to Alba’s level are Raphael Guerreiro, Saed Kolasincac, Benjamin Mendy, Oleksandr
Zincheko, and Andy Robertson.
Guerreiro’s numbers are slightly padded by having played as a left winger as well
as a left back, though, while most of the other options are all likely ruled out by
cost.
Zinchenko would be the best option of the above – he’s defensively better than one
might think, winning 70% of his 8.1 defensive duels per 90, while also putting up good attacking
numbers: 13.3 final third passes, 1.47 deep completed passes, 0.88 deep completed crosses,
and 13.5 progressive passes, all per 90.
He’s valued at 20 million Euro and Manchester City woud probably not be willing to part
with him, although they have resigned Angelino and selling Zinchenko would free up a space
to register another non-homegrown player.
We think this would be a sensible transfer for Barcelona, but there are things that could
stand in its way.
Barcelona should also consider Real Betis’ 23 year old left back Alfonso Pedraza, who
managed three goals, three assists last season at 0.12 assists per 90, 1.04 deep completed
passes and 1.16 deep completed crosses, as well as 7 progressive passes per 90.
Pedraza also made almost seven interceptions per 90 when adjusted for opposition possession,
but only won 49% of his 9.3 defensive duels per 90.
Having said that, he would likely adjust well to Barcelona’s possession-based style and,
release clauses depending, could be a similar sort of cost to Zinchenko.
There’s no doubt that Barcelona need a long, hard think about the youth set-up, and the
loss of Xavi Simons to PSG should set alarms bells ringing among the club’s senior management.
Griezmann and De Jong are great signings, and there is enough resilience at centre back
to put off a rebuild there for now.
A new left back makes sense, though if Alba can hold out for a season without getting
injured, Cucurella, who looks a prospect, will presumably return after his loan and
provide healthy competition.
Beyond that, the squad needs work.
Whether young players make the step up remains to be seen, and there are precious few young
defenders who look ready.
And in the main squad, Sergio Busqets and Ivan Rakitic are 31, Gerard Pique and Messi
32.
They are all still great players.
This is less about overhaul and more about putting a plan in place for the future.
But for now, Griezmann and De Jong will help and add real dynamism to Valverde’s squad.
And here is what we think the team will look like:
While Barcelona have spent a lot of money, it’s hard argue that they have made bad
deals.
There’s more work to do, but these
are sensible transfers.