Time for an update on the tropics and we've
got more action to talk about this morning.
You know, we've already had Arlene much
earlier in the season then we had Brett,
that's the active tropical storm right
now headed towards the Caribbea.
I'll show you the latest on tha.
Question is, will we see
Cindy develop later today?
There's a chance and the reasony
we have a new tropical Depression #4.
Now we're looking across a tropical Atlantic
basin here and you can see this is Brett.
This is Tropical Depression #4.
This system right here,
which is moving along,
you can see a little bit of ven.
It looks like it's getting better organized.
There's another cluster of
disorganized storms here.
We'll want to keep an eye to that one too.
But these are the two systems that the
Hurricane Center is currently putting out
information with the forecast tracks.
These are the two that have been
identified as organized systems.
So we're going to get into this.
We'll start with Brett and agai,
look at the venting,
look at how this thing is really
you see some of those high.
High thin clouds kind of spiralg
out in a clockwise fashion
there. KA sign that this thing's
getting better organized.
We've got convection or storminess near
the center of this thing and ag,
it's holding its own right now
as a strong tropical storm.
Let's give you the track on this
currently at the 5:00 o'clock ue
this morning moving W at 15 and it's a
movement is going to continue westward.
Maximum wind 70 with gusts to 85 mph it is.
Forecast to move across the Lesr
Antilles cutting into the central part
of the Caribbean South of Hispaniola.
On this track,
eventually it is likely to encor
less hospitable environment.
What I mean by that,
there's going to be some winds d
of blowing across the Caribbean
that should weaken the system.
As it moves South of Hispaniola,
so again it comes into the Caribbean,
crosses the islands here as a
very strong tropical storm.
Then as it moves and encounterse
of that wind shear, it should weaken.
By Saturday 2:00 o'clock in the afternoon,
the Hurricane Center has it forecast.
As a minimal tropical storm with
winds of 45 mph.
We'll see how that plays out.
The other area is this tropical depression.
This is #4 movement this morning
is West at 12 mph.
This thing is still almost 1400
miles from the Lesser Antilles,
so this thing a long way out th.
Plenty of time to watch it.
It's maximum winds 35, gusting to 45 mph.
Now it is forecast to strengthen
a little bit,
eventually getting winds to about 60.
Mph or so.
So a healthy tropical storm
moving to the northwest.
Here's Norfolk right here.
Here's Cape Hatters.
You're going Okay.
Does this thing just barrel into our area?
Well, if you believe the longer
range models and we have pretty
good confidence in those right ,
it will not make it to the coas.
Now things could change,
but right now the European model has this
thing kind of absorbed and disrupted by a
frontal boundary that'll be off the coast.
And again, being that high up,
it would likely just kind of get eaten
up or blown apart by that front.
The GFS,
the US global model carries
this thing out farther,
a little closer to us,
but then turns it to the north n
with another front coming out.
So neither of those long term or longer
range models bring it into Hampton Roads.
But I got to tell you,
so much can change over the next 7 to
10 days that you want to keep checking
back with us and we'll let you w
if anything with this forecast changes.
Again,
it's too early to know for sure,
but both of those medium,
medium range global models thate
it out another 3-4 days from hee
do turn it and kind of absorb i.
So that's good news for our are.
Again, we'll need to watch it.
Now you might be wondering why o
we have these systems so numeros
out across the Atlantic?
We get the Cape Verde hurricane seasons
where we get low pressure coming off the
coast of Africa and these systems spin up.
This typically happens in August or sometimes
September when these waters are warm.
This year the water is very war,
very early and we're getting the
systems popping up across the Atlantic.
So we'll need to watch that aga,
water temperatures.
Very warm, so plenty of energy
for these systems to draw on.
You notice our coastal water is
a little bit cooler right now.
Virginia Beach at the coast,
it's 69 degrees.
That's really too cool to suppot
tropical development.
Now system can come in,
but the bottom line is it is cor
and that will weaken systems.
But right now this water where
these hurricanes are operating ,
they are the tropical systems,
not hurricanes,
tropical storm and that tropical depression.
It's warm enough to support more growth,
so we're going to continue to watch that
and we'll let you know how things develop.
Stay tuned to 13 News Now and
we'll keep you updated.