All right.
My next guest
says pay no attention to the new poll
I'm about to reference,
but it does show Donald Trump
with a steady lead in the head to head
rematch against President Biden,
putting Trump at 49%, Biden at 43.
But my next guest goes as far as to say
that you can
can cosign that poll and even the one
showing Trump losing
and just consigned to the flames.
He insists
Biden is still the man to beat in 2024.
Just to tell you who I'm talking about
is Professor Allan LICHTMAN,
who correctly predicted
nine of the last ten elections
and the one he got wrong, 2000, he argues
he actually got right
and Al Gore beat George W
Bush in the popular vote.
So if not the polls,
what's he using as his barometer?
Well, LICHTMAN says
we should follow his 13 keys
to the White House.
Now, they're all listed here for you,
and they include things like incumbency
and third party candidates,
the state of the economy and,
of course, social unrest
and have six or more
go against the party in the White House.
Its candidate will lose fewer than six.
Its candidate will win.
So where do things stand right now?
Let's bring in Allan LICHTMAN
to talk all about it.
Thank you so much for being here.
Listen,
you have not made
your official prediction yet.
I see the keys.
But why do you think that Biden is in
the driver's seat
now when all these polls seem to say
he should be worried?
Remember, all the polls
told us
that Hillary Clinton would win in 2016.
I predicted Trump would win in 1988.
As late as May and June, George H.W.
Bush was trailing his opponent
like the caucus, by 18 percentage points.
He went on to win handily.
Polls are snapshots.
They are abused as predictors.
The keys are different because they tap
into the structure
of how elections really work,
which is that they are votes up
or down on the strength
and performance of the White House party.
Now, why does Biden have an advantage?
You know, we hear all this confirmation.
There should have been
a younger candidate.
Look at this.
Biden wins the incumbency key,
which you saw in your chart.
He wins the contest key because
he's not seriously
opposed to the nomination.
That means six more of my keys
would have to fall to predictors
to see Right now, he only loses to
party mandate
based on House elections and 2022
and incumbent charisma
because he's
no Franklin Roosevelt
so former keys would have to fall.
And there are four shaky keys
that I haven't called yet
and this is what you viewers
should keep your eye on
to get the pundits to get the polls.
Third party. Will
RFK jr emerge as we get closer
as a truly significant
third party candidate?
Social unrest which we now
see emerging at campuses,
will that be sustained? We don't know.
And of course, foreign
failure and success,
which depend upon what's going to happen
in the Middle East
and in Ukraine,
all four would have to go against Biden
to predict to succeed.
That's possible, but not highly likely.
So what about the timeline
for all this happens?
Obviously, as you mentioned,
some aspects of it.
It's a up and down depending on the day
and the length of these
perhaps shakiness of the keys
might not endure,
but they could go longer.
Does there
is there a particular cutoff
and when these keys have to be in hand?
There's no exact cutoff.
Sometimes the keys fall into place
very early.
I predicted the hard
to call the 2012 election in 2010,
but right now,
because things are so fluid,
I can't make a final prediction.
But I will tell you
when you can have me on again,
I expect to make my final call
in early August like I did in 2020.
Oh, come on, give me a hint right now.
Tell me.
Tell me everything.
Just you and me, Alan,
don't you have a whole
bunch of viewers also listening?
Well, if you're going to be technical
about it. Yes, that's me.
I will tell you, as I said, reiterate,
you know, if it wasn't Biden running,
Democrats would have lost
the incumbency key in the contest.
He won't be in a terrible position.
But with Biden winning those two days
and only being down four
on the being down to the four shaky keys
that I pointed out,
all would have to fall against him.
So unlike the polls and the pundits,
I've told your viewers
exactly
what they should look
for over the next several months.
That's as far as I can go right now.
All right.
Well, I appreciate that.
Just next time, we'll whisper. Thank you.
Be great.
This was just this
You and I forget all the many viewers
that are watching right now like Morsi,
it's obviously
the true inside scoop, but
it's no different
from what I've told them.
They're all good.
Well, I will buy the lunch,
but you only get water.
Thanks, Allan LICHTMAN, Nice to see you.
Thanks so much.
Anytime. It's always something I.