Hi everyone! This is Dr. Nitin Chhoda and welcome to my channel!
In this video I'm going to talk to you about the FIVE economic charts that have
the potential to predict the future of the US economy. They can
predict potential recovery after this pandemic. I'm going to answer
the question, is this going to be a V-shaped, a U-shaped
or a W-shaped recovery. I'm going to tell you what you need to know,
what's likely to happen next and whether this is good news
or bad news. I'm going to cover THREE things in this training video. The first,
what are state reopenings actually going to look like? Because different states
are recovering at different rates. Number 2, I'm actually going to go over these
5 economic charts and break them down for you and make them simple
and easy to understand and number 3, most importantly i'm going to talk to
you about what this means for you. I'm going to give you some specifics
about the state of the shutdown in 5 states -
California, New York, New Jersey, Texas and Florida. Now on your screen you'll
see an article from the washington post you can also see such articles on New
York Times and on many other news outlets. Now on the Washington Post
website you have an opportunity to choose the state
that you want to check out and then go to that specific state
and see more information. So let's take a look at what the data shows us. So let's
take a look at this article on the Washington Post
website and what we'll do is we'll scroll down the article a little bit and
then what we'll do is we'll choose California. So here I am choosing
California and as you can see in the state of California the number of
cases have been going up dramatically and at the moment at the time i'm
recording this video gyms, restaurant, dining services, bars and
nightclubs, movie theaters and concerts and sporting venues are still
closed. So let's now move on to New York, in New York you can see that there was a
big increase in the number of cases and then the number of cases came down.
At this point many places like gyms, restaurant, dining services
bars and night clubs, retail stores, personal care businesses like salons and
barbershops are still closed, movie theaters are still closed. So
there's a lot still going on in New York although New York has
sort of gone through the worst of it. So graduation ceremonies with up to 150
people are now being allowed in New York at the time i'm recording this video. So
moving on to New Jersey, New Jersey saw a big spike and then it
has started tapering off in New Jersey. The number of
cases that are being reported on a daily basis is constantly
is fortunately going down and you can see still gyms, bars and night clubs
personal care businesses are still closed.
And as of right now public and private pools will be allowed to reopen the
limit and outdoor gatherings has been increased
to 250 people. So things are starting to get better
in both New York and New Jersey which if you remember they saw the brunt of it.
In Texas the number of cases is going up
significantly and so this is something that everybody
in Texas needs to be careful about. A lot of places are still open in Texas
or have been opened I should say in Texas.
Amusement parks and carnivals and counties with more than a thousand
confirmed cases were only allowed to open at 50% capacity.
Moving on to Florida, Florida has seen a huge surge in cases
after an initial downward trend so there is there's been
a significant jump bars and nightclubs movie theaters and
concert venues are closed at the time i'm recording this video in the state of
florida so disney theme parks are scheduled to
begin reopening with additional guidelines
on the 11th of july as you can see this pandemic is making its way
throughout the country some states are doing better than others because
different states are at different stages of this pandemic
so that's what that's what's going on now the low wage
earners and the middle income earners are primarily in restaurants
travel hotels and entertainment now as you can see
these economic charts that i'm about to show you are actually tied
to these four categories restaurants travel
entertainment and hotels so these five economic charts
are linked to restaurants air travel direction requests in other words
individuals looking up their gps whether they want to walk
somewhere or drive somewhere hotel occupancy and home buying so these
five economic charts are directly tied to the four industries which actually
have more of the low income and the middle
income workers now this chart on your screen gives you the graph the economic
recovery indicator as far as restaurants are concerned as you can see
towards the end of march and in april and may restaurants
essentially went down to zero this was this was the worst thing possible for
the restaurant industry and if you're one of my subscribers
watching and you work in restaurants you know exactly
what i'm talking about now gradually restaurants are starting to reopen
and this trend that you see is a nationwide trend the trends are going to
be specific to your states which is why you should
check out the articles in the description of this video but
this nationwide trend indicates that restaurants are gradually starting
to open up again many states have gradually released have gradually
reduced their restrictions on indoor dining and many of them have
started to raise the customer capacity limit so that restaurants can
now get more individuals coming in and being seated now cities like san
francisco that only allow outdoor dining have now
allowed restaurants to expand dining spaces
into streets and sidewalks and now despite all this if you look at the
chart on your screen you can look at how it was at the start of the year
and where we are now we are still down 70
as far as restaurants are concerned the encouraging sign however is with the
restaurants you can see that the graph is starting to move
up gradually and it will slowly make its way back to where it was it will take
some time but it will make its way back now let's compare that chart with the
next chart which shows air travel now air travel took a substantial hit
and according to some new data from the tsa the number of
passengers traveling through airports is down
80 percent so think about this if there were 10 people going through the tsa
checkpoints last year now there are just two people so it's
down 80 percent a lot of people who consistently fly and
i'm one of them i should say used to be one of them where you know we
don't feel like flying i personally wouldn't want to get on a plane
unless it was required that every single person
wear a mask and now since those guidelines haven't been clearly
established yet airlines are suffering airline stocks
are down um all the planes are most of the planes
are empty and the airline industry is really suffering and you can see on this
chart right here the the amount of people that that
engage in air travel has increased slightly
but it's nowhere near where it was and where it needs to be as far as the
airline industry is concerned i personally feel that the airline
industry all the airlines face significant challenges ahead because i
think this will lead to a re-engineering of our behavior i personally
prefer doing video calls prefer doing phone calls and conferences as opposed
to traveling i'm not going to travel for the
foreseeable future and i know i'm not the only one
let's move on to the next economic chart speaking of travel
these are direction requests individuals asking for directions
from their gps now this is nationwide data you see that there's data for
driving there's data for walking and there's data for mass transit if you
look at the chart on your screen right now
and a lot of this has to do with new york city entering into the phase one
reopening so new york city is gradually reopening
and requests for transit data walking driving
and using mass transit have increased significantly
in the recent past and this is data from apple maps individuals initially
started getting more walking data but now individuals are asking for more
driving data and more mass transit data because people are now starting to get
out there as you can see the data looked fine at the start of the year the second
half of march april and may were absolutely terrible
and now the data suggests that people are starting to get out there
people are starting to drive and people are now starting to use more mass
transit similar to what we were doing at the
start of the year the next chart is hotel
occupancy this is an interesting one this is showing a much better recovery
than even i personally would have predicted
individuals are now starting to travel and now starting to feel comfortable
living in hotels and a lot of this has to do with the fact that hotels are
adopting new standards new sanitation standards new cleanliness
standards which now means that individuals are
willing to and are feeling comfortable stepping out there and then staying in a
hotel room this included data from new york city
texas florida and south carolina so things are starting to improve
and this data came from the global hospitality research company
str this chart is similar to the other charts in the sense that things were
fine at the start of the year in the second half of march
and then april and may the trend went down but now what's interesting is
the trend is starting to come back up rather sharply which is encouraging
as far as hotels are concerned and finally let's take a look at home
purchases now this graph on your screen actually indicates that the economy is
on its way to recovery because usually the housing
market is considered to be an indicator of the future of the economy by many
economists so as you can see the increase in home purchases there's a
substantial increase in home purchases after a substantial dip in april and may
the increase in home purchases could indicate that the housing market is
going to be the first to recover and is the fastest to recover and could
be a sign of good things to come in fact according to the mortgage
bankers association mortgage applications for buying single family
homes up 13 compared to the same time last
year now if you look at the weekly data or the
monthly data that is going to fluctuate up and down but this data is more of a
broader trend it's more of a general trend across the country and it is
extremely encouraging in the end the question is going to be is this going to
be a v-shaped recovery where we improve quickly get back to
normal life as we know it is this going to be a u-shaped recovery
where we essentially go through and go through a prolonged
period of pain before we come back to normal in other words
we're not going to bounce back fast but we're going to essentially
struggle for a little bit and then get back to normal
or is it going to be a w shaped recovery so we recover quickly
unfortunately there's a second wave and then we have to shut down
a second time which by the way no one wants you don't want it
i don't want it the administration the house the senate
no one wants it if it's going to be a w shaped recovery that would mean we
get better quickly things open back up then there's a second wave
and then we go back down and then we open up after that nobody wants that
it's my personal opinion that this is going to be somewhere between a v-shaped
and a u-shaped recovery because i believe that we'll gradually recover
from this i'm confident i'm optimistic there'll be no second wave and i'm
hopeful that we'll see some sort of a vaccine or some sort of a long-term
solution to this pandemic if it's going to be a v-shaped recovery we'll recover
very quickly if it's going to be a u-shaped recovery
we could take a few months longer to recover
but a w-shaped recovery would mean that we have a second wave
a second shutdown which none of us want like i said
i hope you learned something new from this video if you did learn something
new please click the like button please
consider subscribing to my channel and please click
notification so you get instant updates about future videos
i release videos at 2 pm east coast time most days of the week
and i look forward to having you on my channel thank you so much for watching
and i'll see you in the next video thanks