The largest reservoir in the U.S. is drying up, shrinking water supplies in the West.
So what happens when a giant man-made lake gets so dramatically unmade?
Lake Mead was formed following the construction of the Hoover Dam on the Colorado River in
1935.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation — the government agency that manages power
and water in the West — it holds more water than any reservoir in the United States.
It's also one of the largest manmade lakes in the world.
Essentially a flooded canyon, the 229-square-mile lake snakes for 115 miles through the deserts
of Arizona and Nevada.
It seems vast and never-ending — an inland sea of epic proportions that supplies water
and electricity to millions of homes.
But Lake Mead reached its highest volume in the summer of 1983 and has been shrinking
ever since.
This historic high point — 1,226 feet — is easily referenced by the white "bathtub ring"
of minerals extending up the rock walls bordering the lake, left behind when the water level
dropped.
According to Reuters, the top of the ring now towers 157 feet above the current surface
of the lake.
This is equivalent to the Statue of Liberty plus an additional 6 feet.
In 2021, the lake's surface elevation plunged to around 1,067 feet, prompting the Bureau
of Reclamation to declare a water shortage for the first time in history.
Just one year later, in July 2022, Lake Mead's water level fell to around 1,040 feet.
"Mother nature is gonna have to come to the rescue, or, we're gonna have to really look
at some different ways on how we use water."
According to CNN, the lake is now at just 27% of its capacity — its lowest volume
since it was filled in the 1930s.
With the American West now 22 years into a megadrought, many people are wondering what
would happen if Lake Mead dried up completely.
Well, it wouldn't be good.
The Lake Mead National Recreation Area was created by the U.S. Congress in 1964, becoming
the first nationally designated area of its kind in the country.
It is also the largest, occupying 1.5 million acres — an area bigger than the state of
Delaware.
Featuring desert wilderness, canyons, and two lakes, Lake Mead National Recreation Area
is a natural wonderland.
According to Travel Awaits, 7.6 million people visited the area in 2021.
In fact, it was the fifth most visited national park in the U.S., and Lake Mead is its centerpiece.
Surrounded by desert in all directions, the giant lake offers a cool respite from the
sweltering heat.
Water-related activities like boating, fishing, and swimming are the area's main attractions.
But enjoying water recreation at Lake Mead is already a challenge.
According to The Arizona Republic, extending boat launches to keep them open is a constant
effort, as most are no longer underwater.
Several of its marinas have already relocated to deeper water, and some have closed down
permanently.
Boaters and swimmers must also be wary of constantly changing terrain as formerly deep
areas are now shallow.
As the water levels continue to drop, such problems will increase until there is no water
left to enjoy at all.
And without water, the oasis would evaporate into the surrounding desert like a mirage.
"It's extremely sad, to say the least, it's kinda tragic."
According to CNN, the Colorado River system, which includes Lake Mead, supplies water to
40 million people in seven western states.
Lake Mead alone brings water to 25 million people living in Nevada, Arizona, California,
and parts of Mexico.
California has the oldest rights to the lake and therefore gets first dibs.
In times of water shortage, the federal government activates a plan in which water use is dialed
back in tiers, depending on Lake Mead's water levels.
In January 2022, with water levels at 1,066 feet, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation issued
its first water shortage declaration, and Tier 1 water cutbacks were put into effect.
This meant Arizona had to reduce its water use by 18%, Nevada by 7%, and Mexico by 5%.
Since then, the lake has already fallen below the 1,050-foot cutoff, meaning Tier 2 cuts
will be initiated soon, further reducing Arizona and Nevada allotments.
A Tier 3 shortage, in which lake levels drop to 1,038 feet, is expected to happen by July
2023.
At that point, California would begin losing water, too.
There is no Tier 4.
John Entsminger, the general manager of the Southern Nevada Water Authority, told USA
Today,
"We're 150 feet from 25 million Americans losing access to Colorado River water."
No one is more concerned about Lake Mead's plummeting water levels than Sin City.
Las Vegas relies on Lake Mead for a shocking 90% of its water, per the National Park Service.
Historically, water was pulled from the lake and transferred to Las Vegas through a large
intake pipe installed in 1971.
But, as the lake level dropped, the pipe was rendered inoperable.
A new pipe was fitted deeper in the lake in 2000, only to meet the same fate.
Desperation led to a more involved solution.
In 2015, construction on a 3-mile tunnel 600 feet below the lake's bottom was completed.
Called the "third straw," the tunnel allows water to be pulled from the very bottom of
the lake.
"The construction of this third intake, and eventually a new pumping station, will help
secure southern Nevada's access to its water resources in Lake Mead."
If Lake Mead were to dry up — or just drop to a surface elevation of 895 feet — Las
Vegas would be in dire straits.
The city knows this and has taken action.
Despite its population growing by 750,000 since 2002, the city has managed to use 26%
less water by eliminating lawns, adhering to watering schedules, and harvesting greywater,
which is processed and returned to Lake Mead.
Even the famous Bellagio Hotel fountains use a mix of a private well and recycled water.
John Entsminger told CBS News,
"For having a reputation as a city of excess, we're actually one of the most water-efficient
cities in the world."
"Everything we use indoors is recycled.
If it hits a drain in Las Vegas, we clean it, we put it back into Lake Mead."
Swimming pools and green lawns have become a staple of southwestern cities like Phoenix,
Los Angeles, and Las Vegas.
But this won't be sustainable for much longer.
According to the Environmental Protection Agency, as much as 60% of residential water
is used outdoors for irrigating lawns, watering gardens, and filling pools.
In fact, keeping a thirsty 1,000-square-foot lawn alive can use as much as 330 gallons
of water per irrigation session.
Meanwhile, the average backyard swimming pool requires around 18,000 gallons of water to
fill and can lose thousands of gallons each month to evaporation.
Right now, water conservation efforts are left up to the individual in most areas, with
a few cities like Mesa, Arizona, offering incentives to replace lawns with native plants.
But, if Lake Mead were to dry up, water restrictions would become stricter, and such luxuries could
be banned altogether.
Already, many southwestern cities have placed restrictions on outdoor water use, per a 2010
study from the National Academy of Sciences.
In addition to supplying water to many people in the Southwest, Lake Mead is also a key
component of one of the largest hydroelectric power plants in the United States.
Hoover Dam normally supplies electricity to about one million people in Arizona, Nevada,
and southern California.
Water from Lake Mead must travel through the dam's 17 turbines to produce power, but lately,
there has been less water flowing due to the lake's low levels.
The dam is already operating at a reduced capacity, producing 33% less electricity,
according to a report from 8 News Now.
If the lake level drops to 950 feet, the dam's older turbines will begin to struggle.
And according to the Las Vegas Sun, if it drops to 895 feet, it reaches a state called
"dead pool," where Hoover Dam can no longer produce hydroelectric power or move water
downstream.
If Lake Mead reaches "dead pool" and Hoover Dam powers down, Arizona, Nevada, and Los
Angeles would be hit the hardest, according to The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.
And the negative effects probably wouldn't stop there.
If Glen Canyon Dam — a similarly sized dam on the Colorado River — were to fail, not
only would the cost of electricity in impacted areas skyrocket, but the whole power grid
could be disrupted, especially if it happened in summer.
According to The Guardian, a shocking 75% of the water taken from Lake Mead goes toward
irrigating crops like alfalfa and hay, which are used to produce cattle feed.
Under Tier 1 restrictions, which primarily impact the agricultural industry, Arizona
farmers are already working with 60% less water in the desert, according to Modern Farmer.
"If we don't have irrigation water, we can't farm."
As a result, up to 40% of Arizona's farmland may lay fallow, meaning the state's main crops
— alfalfa, hay, and cotton — are not being produced at the usual rate.
The ramifications of this reach further than you might think.
Cattle feed prices will increase due to scarcity, which will, in turn, cause the prices of beef
and dairy products to increase.
As The University of Arizona notes, Yuma, Arizona is also the nation's main grower of
winter greens like kale, spinach, and romaine lettuce, so you can expect to pay more for
those, too.
With Tier 2 and Tier 3 water cutbacks looming on the horizon, interruptions to the nation's
food supply will only get worse.
Soon, California — which produces two-thirds of the United States' fruits and nuts and
one-third of its vegetables — will be impacted.
California has already started removing almond trees, which require a lot of water to grow.
If Lake Mead's water supply is exhausted, such shortages and high prices will become
the norm for everyone in the U.S.
As Lake Mead's water level drops, so does its water quality.
According to the National Park Service, contaminants from the newly exposed shorelines are reentering
warm, shallow areas and becoming more concentrated.
And this is just the beginning of what could happen if the lake keeps drying up.
In the desert of California lies another manmade lake condemned to death: the Salton Sea.
As CNBC notes, it was once a thriving recreational area in the mid-1900s.
But, as the drought took hold, things went horribly wrong.
Salt and toxins from years of agricultural runoff began to concentrate in the water as
the majority of the lake evaporated, becoming too caustic to support an aquatic ecosystem.
Businesses, fish, and birds alike went belly-up.
Today, it is a wasteland.
"And less than an hour away from Palm Springs."
"Exactly.
Some of the richest areas in California, we're just in their backyard."
We can expect to see something similar happen if Lake Mead dries up.
Real estate in the lakeside communities of Boulder City, Meadview, and Henderson would
likely plummet.
Locals who once enjoyed a beautiful lake in their backyard and relied on tourism for income
would be faced with a cruel choice: leave or stay in the mess.
The Lake Mead National Recreation Area is home to 387 species of native animals, 10
of which are threatened with extinction, according to the National Park Service.
Per the National Audubon Society, it is also designated as an Important Bird Area — 320
different bird species have been documented in Lake Mead and its surrounding environments,
including the endangered Southwestern Willow Flycatcher.
According to a 2011 study published in Lake and Reservoir Management, the razorback sucker,
a critically endangered freshwater fish once common in the Colorado River Basin, has maintained
a population in Lake Mead since the 1970s — one of the last breeding populations of
the species.
The relict leopard frog, previously thought to be extinct, only survives in a few springs
within the Lake Mead National Recreation Area.
Without the lake and its springs, this species would certainly go extinct.
One way or another, a lack of water in the Southwest would likely prompt people to move.
In addition to the possible loss of luxury and jobs, prices for water and power would
likely skyrocket.
This could be enough to trigger a mass migration out of the Southwest.
And it wouldn't be the first time in American history that drought caused such an event.
In the 1930s, extreme drought caused the Dust Bowl in the Great Plains region, leaving many
Americans without water, money, or prospects.
2.5 million people had moved out of the Plains states by 1940.
It is currently the largest migration in U.S. history.
Per the World Economic Forum, water shortages and climate change create more refugees than
we realize.
After all, a person can only live three days without water, and they also cannot grow food
without it.
It's really quite simple: water is essential for life, and when it's in short supply, people
will travel to find it.