LIZ: BREAKING NEWS.
WE NOW HAVE MAJOR DETAILS ON
WHAT IS IN THE BREXIT DEAL
DRAFT.
A WHOLE HOST OF HEADLINES JUST
HIT THE TAPE.
THEY INCLUDE, LET ME TELL YOU, A
SOLUTION TO THE BACKSTOP THAT
WOULD PREVENT A HARD BORDER
BETWEEN NORTHERN IRELAND AND
IRELAND.
THE DEAL SAYS THAT A BACKSTOP
ARRANGEMENT WOULD BE TEMPORARY
AND THAT A MORE SECURE DEAL
WOULD NEED TO BE REACHED BY
DECEMBER 31st OF 2020, BUT AS
THE WORLD WAS WAITING, AS HOURS
COLLAPSED AT TEN DOWNING STREET
IN LONDON BEFORE PRIME MINISTER
THERESA MAY FINALLY EMERGED
AFTER DISCUSSIONS WITH HER
CABINET, IT APPEARS THAT HER
CABINET HAS APPROVED HER BREXIT
DEAL BUT GUESS WHAT?
THAT'S ONLY THE BEGINNING.
HEADLINE AFTER HEADLINE AS WE
SAY, HITTING THE TAPE, SCREAMING
ACROSS THIS, WARNING BEFORE WE
GOT SOME DETAILS, THESE ARE
BRITAIN'S NEWSPAPERS AND FAMED
TABLOIDS, ALL WEIGHING IN ON
PRIME MINISTER THERESA MAY'S
BREXIT PLAN.
SOME LOVE IT, SOME HATE IT.
LOOK AT THIS ONE, MAY ACCUSED OF
BETRAYAL.
MAY TAKES BACK CONTROL FROM THE
EVENING STANDARD.
LET'S CLEAR THROUGH ALL OF THAT
AND BRING IN, IN A FOX BUSINESS
EXCLUSIVE FROM LONDON, THE
FORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR TO THE
EUROPEAN UNION, ANTHONY GARDNER.
OKAY, CLEAR THROUGH THIS.
SHE'S GOT IT PASSED FROM HER
CABINET BUT IS THAT THE FIRST
STEP OF A MARATHON OR A SPRINT?
CATEGORIZE THIS FOR US.
>> IT'S THE FIRST STEP OF A
MARATHON, OF MANY STEPS.
SHE'S GOT TO GET APPROVAL ALSO
FROM THE EU HEADS OF STATE WHICH
SHE WILL GET.
SHE'S GOT TO GET APPROVAL FROM
THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT WHICH I
THINK SHE WOULD GET.
THE PROBLEM IS SHE NEEDS TO GET
APPROVAL FROM HER OWN
PARLIAMENT, AND THE ELECTORAL
MATH, THE MATH IN THE
PARLIAMENT, IS VERY TOUGH.
SHE'S GOT A 13-SEAT WORKING
MAJORITY.
SHE LOSES SEVEN, SHE'S GOT
TROUBLE.
SHE HAS A COALITION AS YOU KNOW
WITH THE DEMOCRAT I
WITH THE DEMOCRATIC NORTHERN
IRELAND PARTY.
IF SHE LOSES TEN, SHE'S GOT
TROUBLE.
LIZ: WAIT.
LET ME INTERRUPT YOU.
NORTHERN IRELAND IS PART OF THE
UK.
THEY HAVE THIS GROUP THAT REALLY
DOESN'T LIKE MOST OF WHAT
THEY'VE HEARD FROM THERESA MAY.
NORTHERN IRELAND, HOW CRUCIAL
COULD THEY BE TO DERAILING THESE
POSITIVE HEADLINES THAT WE'VE
SEEN WHERE AT LEAST SOME
COUNTRIES, INCLUDING IRELAND,
SEEM TO THINK IT'S PRETTY
DECENT?
>> WELL, CRUCIAL.
SO THEY VOTE AGAINST IT, IT'S
OVER.
BUT I DON'T THINK THEY HAVE HAD
A CHANCE REALLY TO LOOK AT THE
FINE DETAILS OF IT YET.
IT WAS JUST RELEASED I THINK
LAST NIGHT.
IT'S A 400 PAGE DOCUMENT, VERY
DETAILED.
SO WE DON'T KNOW, I THINK YET,
WHAT THEIR POSITION WILL BE.
BUT IF SHE LOSES THE TEN VOTES,
IT CAN'T GO THROUGH.
BUT EVEN WORSE OR JUST AS BAD,
PERHAPS, IF A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER
OF TORRYS, HER OWN PARTY,
ABANDON HER AND SHE CAN'T
COMPENSATE WITH VOTES FROM
LABOR, SHE ALSO HAS A PROBLEM IN
TERMS OF THE MATH.
THIS IS NOT OVER BY ANY STRETCH.
THE KEY ISSUES YOU MENTIONED IS
THE NORTHERN IRELAND ISSUES.
SO APPARENTLY WHAT THE DEAL IS
HERE IS THAT NORTHERN IRELAND
WILL SIGN UP TO THE EU CUSTOMS
CODE.
ALL OF THE RULES ON CUSTOMS OF
THE EU, AND ALSO THE SINGLE
MARKET RULES WHICH WOULD ALLOW
NO REGULATORY CHECKS ON GOODS,
IT MEANS NO TAF
IT MEANS NO TARIFFS, NO QUOTAS
AND NO RULES OF ORIGIN.
THAT DEALS WITH THE BORDERS
THERE.
IN TERMS OF THE UK MAINLAND,
THEY WOULD SIGN UP TO A SOFT
FORM OF CUSTOMS PARTNERSHIP
WHICH WOULD ALSO GET RID OF A
NEED FOR TARIFFS AND QUOTAS AND
RULES OF ORIGIN BUT THERE, THERE
WOULD CONTINUE TO BE CHECKS ON
GOODS FOR THE REASON THEY'RE NOT
GOING TO BE IN THE SINGLE
MARKET.
LIZ: YOU THINK, AMBASSADOR, THAT
ON BALANCE, MOST OF THE EUROPEAN
UNION WILL LOOK AT THIS AND SAY
COMPROMISE, THIS WORKS FOR US?
CECELIA MALMSTROM IS WITH OUR
TRADE REP, ROBERT LIGHTHIZER,
AND IS ALSO HITTING THE TAPE
SAYING THEY MADE SOME PROGRESS.
SHE ALSO SAID SHE AGREES WITH
THE U.S. ON HOW UNFAIR CHINA HAS
BEEN IN THEIR TRADE DEALS WITH
THE UNITED STATES.
SO IT ALMOST SEEMS LIKE THERE'S
SOME SOFTER TALK, MORE OF A
CARROT DISCUSSION VERSUS A
STICK.
>> I THINK THE EU WANTS THIS
DEAL TO WORK WITH THE UK.
I THINK THE PROBLEM IS ON THE UK
SIDE, ABOUT WHETHER IT WILL FLY.
ON THE LARGER ISSUE ABOUT THE
CAR IMPORT TARIFFS AND SO FORTH,
YOU ARE ABSOLUTELY RIGHT.
I THINK THEY ARE PUTTING AN
EMPHASIS APPROPRIATELY THAT THE
U.S. AND EU ACTUALLY AGREE ON A
LOT, PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO
CHINA.
THE EU, FOR EXAMPLE, TABLED A
VERY SPECIFIC DOCUMENT ABOUT HOW
THEY WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE WTO
RULES CHANGED, AND WE WOULD
PROBABLY AGREE WITH 90% OF IT.
IT APPLIES TO CHINA, FORCED I.P.
TRANSFERS, MARKET ACCESS AND SO
FORTH, SO THEY HAVE BEEN ASKING
AND TRYING TO ENGAGE THE UNITED
STATES IN A PROCESS OF WTO
REFORM AS PART OF THE DEAL THAT
THEY STRUCK IN THE WHITE HOUSE
WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP.
THE PROBLEM IS, FROM WHAT I
UNDERSTAND, I HAVE BEEN TOLD BY
MANY PEOPLE IN THE EU, SO FAR
THERE'S BEEN ALMOST NO
ENGAGEMENT FROM THE UNITED
STATES ON THOSE PROPOSALS.
LIZ: QUICKLY, WE ARE RUNNING OUT
OF TIME BUT I DO NEED TO HEAR
YOUR THOUGHT ON ITALY.
SOMEBODY IN OUR MORNING MEETING
SAID ITALY IS ACTING LIKE THE
ANGRY BABY WHO IS THROWING TOYS
OUT OF THE PRAM BECAUSE THEY
WERE SUPPOSED TO RESUBMIT A
BUDGET THAT WAS ABSOLUTELY
UNACCEPTABLE TO THE HEAD OF THE
EUROPEAN UNION.
THEY RESUBMITTED IT ON THE
DEADLINE WITH NEARLY NO CHANGES.
THIS IS A COALITION POPULIST
GOVERNMENT AND THEY REFUSE TO
KNOCK IT OFF ON SPENDING.
WHAT DO YOU THINK HAPPENS WITH
ITALY THAT THE EU'S THIRD
LARGEST ECONOMY?
>> THIS IS A BIG DEAL.
I DON'T THINK ITALY IS GOING TO
BACK DOWN ANY TIME SOON, OR
EASILY, AND THE MAIN REASON IS
DOMESTIC ITALIAN POLITICS.
YOU'VE GOT TWO PARTIES WHO WANT
TO BE SEEN AS TOUGH,
PARTICULARLY ONE OF THEM, AND
THEY HAVE MADE PROMISES DURING
THE CAMPAIGN AND SAY WE ARE
GOING TO DELIVER ON THOSE
PROMISES, THE MINIMUM SALARY, WE
ARE GOING TO REDUCE THE
PENSIONABLE AGE AND SO FORTH.
SO I THINK WE ARE GOING TO SEE