Canada is not prepared for World War III- it's not even prepared to defend itself
or its allies in a much smaller conflict. Canada's military is in a state of disaster.
According to an old Canadian proverb that we just made up, “the mouse that lives on
the Moose's antlers need not fear predators”. This perfectly sums up Canada's historical position in
the post-Cold War environment. Canada is widely known as America's friendly northern neighbor,
and if European powers are admitting to have criminally underfunded their defense
capabilities and over-relied on the US in the post cold war peace dividend,
Canada has at least never pretended to do anything but. It's difficult to
take defense spending seriously when you're two oceans away from a potential conflict,
and you happen to be sitting right on top of the greatest military superpower on the planet.
But the war in Ukraine has proven that the United States can no longer do it all alone- for decades
the US had a national policy of maintaining the capability to fight two high intensity conflicts
simultaneously. This is no longer the case, and while the US is a match for any nation on earth,
a fight against China would stress its ability to provide peacekeeping forces
elsewhere on the world. This is where America's allies and friends are supposed to come into
play- but Canada is nowhere near prepared to offer much more than moral support.
Don't take it from us though, Justin Trudeou recently admitted at a NATO meeting that
Canada would never meet a spending goal of 2% of GDP on its armed forces. Currently it
spends about 1.29% of GDP, making it one of the worst offenders relative to the size of
its economy in all of NATO. Recent polls in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of
Ukraine showed that only 34% of Canadians would even consider an increase in defense spending.
In the mid 2010s, the US revealed that Canada could not keep up its end of its
commitment to NORAD's North American aerospace defense mission. Canadian jets were not at a
suitable readiness level, and its pilot corps was experiencing manpower difficulties. To top it off,
both working military jets and infrastructure was all aging, with the bulk of Canada's air
power being over four decades old. Fast forward to 2023 and not much has changed- though Canada
did agree to a purchase of 90+ F-35s to modernize its air force, to be delivered starting in 2026.
So what's wrong with Canada's military exactly?
There are numerous very critical problems hollowing out the Canadian military,
and the first is a problem of culture. While Canada has made impressive leaps forward to
adopt a more progressive recruitment attitude such as relaxing standards on visible tattoos,
hair, gender, and facial hair, Canadians themselves are not sold on their own military,
leading directly to critical recruiting problems. Currently, the Canadian Armed
Forces are understaffed by approximately 16%- or 16,000 positions out of 101,500 active duty
billets needing filled. This isn't just Canada's problem- many militaries around the world are
suffering from military recruitment shortages, including the US. But Canada's problem is acute,
not just because of the size of its deficit, but where it's hitting its military worst.
The Canadian Armed Forces are experiencing a shortage of personnel right where it needs it
the most- not in the grunts, or low ranking positions, or even its senior officer corps,
but in what would be called 'middle-management' in the civilian world. This is junior officers
and veteran non-comissioned officers, the very backbone of a modern military. These
are the personnel who see to the day to day organization and running of a unit,
ensuring standards in conduct, training, and competency are being met. Just ask
Russia what happens when your military is made up of a lot of senior officers,
with even more enlisted grunts, and very little between the two.
Canadian military culture and operational tempo is to blame for the shortage. Canada has struggled
with a history of poor leadership, leaving many feeling disenfranchised as they also take on
the burden of a very high operational tempo. The wars in the Middle East and Canadian commitments
to its allies and friends elsewhere all put Canadian personnel through frequent deployments,
which can be very difficult on family life. Many simply chose not to reenlist when their
contracts were up, and for anyone hoping to build a family, enlistment is a poor choice.
But with the middle east wars winding down, Canada was finally on track to have recruitment outpace
separations. Canada's Liberal government made a plan to address its troop shortfall by adding
thousands of full time and part-time positions to its military forces. All was going well,
until Covid 19 hit. In the first year of Covid, Canada only recruited 2,000 personnel,
or less than half that it needed to hit recruitment targets. The year after,
4800 recruits enlisted, bringing hope to a bleak situation, but Canada still needed
approximately 5900 personnel per year, and numbers once more began to shrink. Today
approximately 1 in 10 of every position in the Canadian military is unfilled,
which technically puts the entire Canadian military within range of the US military's
own doctrine which considers any unit suffering more than 10% casualties as combat ineffective.
The trouble with Canada's recruitment efforts are two-fold. First, the nation is still
dealing with a sexual assault crisis within its military, with a staggering
one in thirteen women in the Canadian Armed Forces having reported sexual assault while
serving in uniform. For Canada, the problem extends to its Canadian Cadet Organizations,
with one in ten of all reported sexual assaults coming from young cadets.
The Canadian government has aggressively worked to address the problem, but that doesn't help its
culture image. Many potential new recruits have a very negative view of the Canadian military,
and women feel specifically disincentivized to join what
has come to be seen as a potentially dangerous and abusive institution.
Culture overall though is another problem for the Canadian military, because Canadians simply don't
think much about their military. Just across their southern border, Americans worship their military
at a deeply uncomfortable, near-fetishistic level. However, Canadians criminally neglect their
military, and the Canadian Armed Forces have done little to rectify this situation. The US military
knows that it relies on volunteers to build a professional force, and thus regularly engages
with its local communities and the nation at large. The Canadian military is starting to pick
up the pace, but is largely absent in cultural impact on its own citizens. This, combined with
Canadian's natural tendency to feel they aren't just a world away from potential problems,
but are best friends with the toughest kid on the block, means that they have little reason
to care about the military, not just hurting its recruitment efforts but also its budgeting.
In 1924, Sen. Raoul Dandurand noted that “Canada is a fireproof house,
far removed from inflammable materials”. With an abundant wealth of natural resources and
friendly neighbors to the south, Canadians have little reason to care about their military,
and would rather focus on internal matters such as health care, the economy, and education. This
laid-back attitude even extends to their public servants, whom lack much exposure
to education on geopolitics and especially, war. The Canadian Forces College for instance,
only educates ten senior government officials a year in its national security program- who then
promptly return to careers that have little to do with their recently acquired education.
Perhaps there was a time when Canada's isolationism was well earned,
but that time has long come and gone- and now Canada's closest allies have taken note,
and simply chosen to ignore it. Despite being a major Pacific power, Canada was completely
sidelined with the AUKUS deal meant to strengthen Pacific defense and deter Chinese aggression.
Canada was simply seen as a non-player by the three other countries, and this served as a
major wake-up call to many Canadian politicians. But that doesn't mean that things have changed,
because despite the rise of a Chinese threat in the Pacific, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine,
Canada's military is in no way headed in the right direction. Quite the opposite in fact.
Before we go on though, it's important to note that the Canadian military still
retains some significant strenghts- its special forces for example are top notch,
and have operated around the world in support of NATO and US-led operations. Canada has even
taken the lead on numerous global operations, proving it has the leadership ability to carry
out joint-force operations. In fact, many would say that Canada has been overcompensating for
its weaknesses by aggressively deploying its special forces and support forces globally-
but this too has put a significant strain on these personnel and their equipment.
The rest of the Canadian military however is in a sorry state.
Canada operates 12 frigates which make up the bulk of its naval firepower,
but these ships are all hovering at around 25 years old. Of these twelve,
only five are currently seaworthy, with seven undergoing repairs and refit. But this isn't
even Canada's biggest naval problem, because even if all these ships were available for operation,
they'd be useless without piggybacking along with US navy capabilities for one key reason:
Canada only has one dedicated naval replenishment ship. And to make matters worse,
this ship is not considered survivable in hostile waters due to a lack of advanced
radars or even a self-defense system to protect from missile or small boat attack.
The Canadian military has recently been given a shot in the arm to procure new equipment-
but these funds aren't quite enough and even more importantly, Canada's personnel problems
once more create difficulties for the nation. With a critical shortage of trained procurement
personnel, Canada has 30 percent of these positions unfilled. The lack of procurement
personnel means that Canada is currently sitting on billions of pledged but unspent money meant
to purchase new military equipment, forcing the military to operate older and older equipment
that becomes progressively more expensive to maintain. Making matters even worse,
Canada has been very generous with donations of military hardware to Ukraine- and while
that's deeply appreciated for everyone who likes a free, democratic world order,
the truth is that none of the equipment being set overseas is being replaced.
The lack of procurement personnel in its military and government is
a result of its recruitment crisis and military culture both. However,
Canada is also having trouble enticing qualified individuals away from private sector jobs, which
often offer much better pay and work conditions. This is not a new problem for Canada though,
as the issue goes all the way back to the late 1990s, making Canada's equipment woes even more
pronounced as upgrade projects languish due to a lack of trained personnel who's job is
to procure the proper equipment. Key among these projects is an effort to replace its
Halifax-class frigates, purchase more drones, and replace stocks of equipment donated to Ukraine.
So what's Canada to do in case of a third world war, or any major conflict?
The first thing Canada must immediately do is recognize that it’s no longer immune
to external threats. Many defense experts warned that the Covid supply chain shutdowns
very accurately mirrored what nations should expect in case of war in the Pacific. However,
China's ambition to take Taiwan would also leave it in control of the vast majority of the world's
semiconductor manufacturing, including 90% of the most advanced 3mm models which modern
militaries and economies rely on. This makes Taiwan a global, and very Canadian problem.
Russia's expansion into the Arctic though also poses a threat that's closer to Canadian shores
than ever before. Global warming will soon be opening new trade routes through the Arctic,
as well as freeing up millions of square miles of ocean for commercial fishing and energy
exploitation. Russia long ago read the writing on the wall, and in a surprisingly forward-looking
move for such an incompetent nation, began to build up a military presence in the Arctic.
The US followed suit, expanding facilities in Alaska- but Canada is the real key to the Arctic,
and a conflict over vast new resources in the melting Arctic will put Canada on the front
lines of a major war. Making matters even worse, China has declared itself an “Arctic power”,
despite having no Arctic coast whatsoever. This means China is not content to simply sit the
new Arctic gold rush out, bringing another player into the potentially explosive mix.
Changing the minds of the Canadian people will be difficult, and perhaps they'll need their own
Pearl Harbor moment, much as the isolationist US needed in the second world war. Right now though,
Canada can make realistic changes to its national defense and military while staying within its weak
defense budget and still manage to have an outsized impact on any potential conflict.
Rather than focusing on fielding an all-domain force similar to the US, Canada should instead
focus on key areas and work to become a good partner, rather than an independent military
power. There are many areas that the US could use Canada's expertise in, such as the cyber domain.
Canada's technology workforce outpaced the US' in growth rate in 2022, and the nation has five of
the top 50 ranked universities for computer science and information systems. The nation
boasts a strong cyber security private sector which should be roped into a national strategy.
The cyber domain is a good way to field a strong force multiplier at low cost,
and Canada has already taken significant steps in this warfighting domain. However, the government
suffers from a poor working relationship with the private sector, with a Canadian Association of
Defense and Security Industries report stating that a history of unproductive engagement,
poor communication, and poor mutual understanding of capabilities have hindered efforts for the
government and private sector to work together. Another report from the Canadian Global Affairs
Institute said that the Department of Defense and military both suffer from personnel shortages and
poor cyber-defense policy, as well as a lack of coordination with the Communications Security
Establishment, a world-class cyber security organization within the Canadian government.
Canada could learn key lessons from its southern ally, the United States, which has a strong
relationship with the private sector. America's ability to engage its civilians with its military
would also be of benefit to Canada to help stem the recruitment crisis it's currently undergoing.
Another area that Canada could focus on to be a significant partner in any future conflict is in
resource security. If the Canadian military isn't up to the task of sustained combat operations,
then the nation can at least act as a reservoir of critical materials needed for
a long duration war by its allies. Canada has the fourth largest oil reserves in the world,
as well as one of the largest deposits of rare earth minerals- estimated at
15.1 million tons. Currently China produces 61% of all rare earth minerals,
meaning that in case of war in the Pacific, allied forces will need Canada's supply to
replenish high tech equipment lost in combat and offset the loss of China's exports. As the world's
fourth largest oil producer and fifth largest natural gas producer, Canada doesn't have to be
a strong military power to support its partners- it can instead help fuel its allies to victory.
But Canadians may not see it that way- or even be able to meet this need.
When Europe was cutting itself off Russian gas, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and EU Comission
President Ursula von der Leyen both traveled to Canada in hopes of securing Canadian energy.
President Trudeau though refused their request, stating that there has quote- never been a strong
business case” for Canada to export gas to Europe. This brought no small amount
of outrage from Canadian business and Europeans alike, and in March 2022 the nation also failed
to ease Europe's pain by increasing oil production to 200,000 barrels a day.
But Canadian isolationist attitude isn't the only thing to blame- the nation simply
lacks the infrastructure to do much on the world stage. With no liquefied natural gas terminals on
either its Atlantic or Pacific coast, Canada can only export gas to its current trading partner,
the US. Its lack of new oil platforms and pipelines also means that the
nation is largely incapable of ramping up production during global shortages.
If there is a silver lining though, it's Canada's willingness to tackle a Chinese
monopoly on rare earth minerals. The nation has entered multiple strategic
partnerships with the US, the EU, and Japan to work on expanding its ability to mine,
secure supply chains, and counter a Chinese monopoly. The nation has also forced Chinese
companies to sell their stakes in Canadian mining companies, and under its Canadian
Critical Minerals Strategy aim to improve the production and processing of rare earths.
With a population largely uninterested in either its military or increasing spending,
Canada's best recourse for a troubled future is to simply act as the best support available.
Taking a cue from League of Legends, Canada is better served supporting its attack damage carry
than trying to lead on its own- though this too seems like it'll be a hard sell for a Canadian
population enjoying US military supremacy to an even more criminal level than Europe ever did.
Now go check out France's World War 3 Plan, or click this other video instead!