WELCOME BACK.
OIL IN FOCUS, PRICES EDGING
HIGHER OVER TENSIONS IN RAJ.
I SPOKE WITH CONGRESS -- IN
IRAN.
I SPOKE WITH CONGRESSMAN MATT
THORNBERRY ABOUT POTENTIAL
DISRUPTION IN THE OIL MARKET DUE
TO THIS CONFLICT.
DO YOU EXPECT ANY DISRUPTION IN
TERMS OF THE OIL MARKETS, GIVEN
THE STRAITS OF HORMUZ AND WHAT
THE IRANIANS MIGHT BE ABLE TO DO
THERE?
>> THERE COULD BE.
WE SAW THIS PAST WEEK FOUR
TANKERS RECEIVE SOME SORT OF
ATTACK OR EXPLOSION THAT DID NOT
SINK THEM BUT IT MAY HAVE BEEN A
WARNING SIGN THAT IRAN COULD DO
WORSE.
AND REMEMBER, THE CONTEXT HERE
IS IRAN'S ECONOMY IS IN REAL
TROUBLE AND OIL IS A MAJOR
FACTOR IN THEIR ECONOMY.
SO ALL OF THIS COULD BE PART OF
THEIR PLAN TO INCREASE THE PRICE
OF OIL, HELP THEIR ECONOMY AND
CAUSE DISRUPTION THROUGHOUT THE
PERSIAN GULF.
MARIA: THAT WAS MATT THORNBERRY
ON THE FOREIGN AFFAIRS COMMITTEE
IN THE HOUSE, AS OPEC SAYS IT
WILL KEEP PRODUCTION CUTS WHERE
THEY ARE.
JOINING US IS OPUS ENERGY
ANALYST FROM GLOBAL HEAD, TOM
KLOSA.
GREAT TO SEE YOU.
THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.
YOU SAW THE NEWS LAST WEEK IN
TERMS OF IRAN AND WHAT THEY ARE
TRYING TO DO, UNDERMINE THE
UNITED STATES.
DO YOU EXPECT AN IMPACT TO THE
OIL MARKETS?
>> I THINK IT WILL BE VERY, VERY
TOUCH AND GO FOR THE NEXT 100
DAYS OR SO.
I MEAN, EVEN IF IRAN CONTINUES
TO PUMP AND SORT OF LEAK SOME
OIL UNDER THE GUISE OF EXPORTS
THAT ARE BEING CLOSELY WATCHED
BY THE U.S., WE'RE GOING TO SEE
WORLD OIL DEMAND OUTPACE WORLD
OIL SUPPLY FOR THE NEXT 100 DAYS
BY ABOUT 1 MILLION BARRELS A
DAY.
THAT MAKES THE MARKET TIGHT.
IT'S NOT PARTICULARLY
IT'S NOT PARTICULAR TIGHT
IT'S NOT PARTICULARLTIGHT
IT'S NOT PARTICULARLY GHT
IT'S NOT PARTICULARLY TIT
IT'S NOT PARTICULARLY TIGHT NOW.
THE NEXT 100 DAYS, ANYTHING
GOES.
YOU'VE GOT THIS MARKET MENTALITY
NOW WHERE IT COULD MOVE TWO OR
THREE OR FOUR DOLLARS A BARREL
ON A TWEET, A DRONE, OR A HOOFY
FROGMAN MANY WE HAVEN'T SEEN
THIS BEFORE.
THIS IS NEW.
>> TOM, JACKIE DELANG
>> TOM, JACKIE DEAANG
>> TOM, JACKIE DEANGG
>> TOM, JACKIE DEANGELES, GOOD
TO SEE YOU.
I'M LOOKING AT THE PRICE, A
LITTLE UNDER $63, I'M THINKING
TO MYSELF, TROUBLE IN VENEZUELA
AND IRAN.
YET THE PRICE ISN'T SPIKING THE
WAY YOU WOULD EXPECT IT TO
PRICE.
I PIN THAT TO THE FACT THAT
WE'RE PRODUCING IN THE UNITED
STATES MORE THAN
12 MILLION BARRELS A DAY.
>> I THINK YOU'VE GOT A POINT.
HERE'S THE POINT I WOULD MAKE.
THE WTI PRICE AND CUSHING IS 63,
6350.
>>>
63>
63.50.
THE PRICE OF OTHER OIL WILL BE
$72.
WHAT'S THE REAL PRICE?
PROBABLY THE PRICE ON THE COAST.
SO WE'RE ALREADY SEEING MOST
U.S. REFINERIES AND REFINERIES
THAT SORT OF SERVE THE WORLD
PAYING SOMETHING IN THE 70s.
IF YOU GET SOME REAL SKIRMISHES
IN THE MIDDLE EAST, YOU COULD
HAVE A CUP OF COFFEE AT $80 A
BARREL OR SO.
IT COULD HAPPEN MORE IN THE NEXT
100 DAYS.
DAGEN: HOW QUICKLY CAN THE
SHALE PRODUCERS RAMP UP
PRODUCTION EVEN BEYOND THE
LEVELS WE'RE SEEING NOW, BECAUSE
YOU WERE TALKING ABOUT MAYBE
LATER THIS YEAR, FOR EXAMPLE, WE
HAD THAT CONVERSATION WHEN THE
UNITED STATES GOT RID OF THE
WAIVERS ON EXPORTING OIL FOR A
NUMBER OF NATIONS, EXPORTING OIL
OUT OF IRAN, THE QUESTION WAS
WHY NOW.
COULDN'T THEY HAVE WAITED UNTIL
THE END OF THE YEAR.
DOES THE FOURTH QUARTER LOOK
BETTER IN TERMS OF OUR
PRODUCTION HERE?
>> IT LOOKS BETTER IN TERMS OF
OUR PRODUCTION.
QUITE FRANKLY, I THINK THEY
COULD RAISE PRODUCTION VERY
QUICKLY BY A MILLION BARRELS A
DAY.
THE PROBLEM IS, THERE ARE NO
PIPELINES TO TAKE AWAY THAT
ADDITIONAL OIL.
THAT HAPPENS IN THE LAST 60 DAYS
OF THE YEAR WHEN GIANTS FANS AND
COWBOYS FANS ARE GETTING THEIR
HEARTS BROKEN BY OTHER THINGS.
SO WE'VE GOT THE OIL.
WE'VE GOT THE OIL THAT'S READY
TO COME ON.
WE DON'T HAVE THE PIPELINES TO
TAKE IT TO THE COAST WHERE IT
CAN GO TO THE EXPORT MARKET.
MARIA: ALL RIGHT.