Hello and welcome to the latest update of the sugarcane rainfall outlook for the Central
District. This presentation will cover the recent rainfall totals recorded so far in May,
then the forecast rainfall over the short term. We'll then look at the June and July rainfall
outlooks in detail before a summary of the longer term winter rainfall outlooks and climate drivers.
During May, rainfall has been below average for most areas with around 10 to 30 percent of the May
average rainfall received so far as so as shown by these red dots on the right. Coastal Mackay
is the exception where totals in excess of 100 millimeters have reached 100 percent or slightly
above the median May rainfall. In the short term, little in the way of rainfall is expected
with light southeasterly stream showers mainly impacting the coastline. This graphic shows the
10-day rainfall accumulations to 10 pm next Friday the 2nd of June and we can see across
the next 10 days rainfall totals are expected to be less than 10 millimeters for most parts,
possibly higher around the Proserpine region and Clark Range. A colder air mass will reach the
Central District during Saturday with minimum temperatures in particular plummeting to 6
to 10 degrees below average for May, before slowly climbing again mid to late next week.
Here we have the chance of exceeding 25 millimeters of rainfall over the next fortnight
broken down into week-long periods. You can access these maps on the link above. I have selected 25
millimeters to display and on the website there are a number of rainfall thresholds available
between one millimeter and 700 millimeters to choose. For the Central District we are looking
at a mostly dry fortnight ahead with a 10 percent or less chance of exceeding 25 millimeters across
both week one and week two. Into the whole of June outlook, and we can see a below average
to equal chance, around 35 to 50 percent chance of exceeding the June median rainfall with the
model skill typically getting it correct 55 to 65 percent of the time. For further information,
including point location forecasts, check the Bureau Climate Outlooks page on the link provided.
This translates into a lower chance of seeing rainfall close to the historical median for
the month, as we can see from the lower rainfall values in the 50 percent chance
of at least chart on the left, compared with the historical median values on the right.
Expanding further on the possible June rainfall totals here, with the high chance on the left
the 75 percent chance or three out of four times, so we can expect to see at least this
much through the month of June, and the lower chance totals on the right- the 25 percent chance
or one out of four times we would see these totals exceeded in the region across June.
Moving on to the month of July and a more neutral to slightly wetter signature is
evident on the rainfall outlook, with average odds of around 40 to 65 percent of exceeding the July
median rainfall. The model skill during July is typically correct 50 to 65 percent of the time.
This translates into a roughly equal chance of seeing rain fall close to or slightly higher than
the historical median for the month, as we can see from the slightly higher values in the 50 percent
chance of at least chart on the left, compared with the historical median map on the right.
Expanding further on the possible July rainfall totals here with the high chance on the left the
75 percent chance of exceeding or three out of four times so we can expect to see at least this
month through the month of July, and the lower chance totals on the right the 25 percent chance
or one out of four times we would expect to see these totals exceeded in the region.
And a quick snapshot of the rainfall outlook for winter months through June to August as a whole,
and we see a low to about equal around 30 to 50 percent chance of exceeding the median rainfall
across winter. The model is typically correct 65 to 75 percent of the time through this forecast
period. So what's driving this? We are currently in an El Niño watch with a 50 chance of El Niño
forming later this year- around double the normal likelihood. In recent months we have
observed eastern tropical Pacific Waters warming, but we've seen little atmospheric response yet.
All International climate models indicate it is very likely Pacific Ocean temperatures will reach
El Niño thresholds during the winter, however an atmospheric response is also required for an El
Niño to be declared by The Bureau. An El Niño is normally associated with lower than average winter
and spring rainfall over eastern Australia. This translates into about an equal or slightly lower
chance of seeing the rainfall close to historical median for the winter, as we can see from the
slightly lower values on the 50% chance of at least chart on the left, compared with historical median
map on the right. That's it for this update. As always, check the latest forecasts and warnings
on the Bureau's website or the BOM Weather App, and be sure to send any feedback through to
agriculture@bom.gov.au. We'd love to hear from you. See you next outlook, thanks for listening.