Afghanistan is a difficult country…
In many aspects.
And “difficult” honestly doesn’t really cover it.
Afghanistan is a very mountainous country - almost three quarters of its surface is
covered by mountains and peaks that in many cases exceed 20,000ft.
So, you can probably imagine just how difficult communications are among the different regions
of this country.
And as if this was not enough, it’s also a landlocked and mostly arid place.
In fact, deserts are not unusual in Afghanistan.
So with the exception of few valleys like Herat’s, its national landscape are mainly
composed of red and yellow tones.
BUT, geography is not the worst part of this country, neither is its harsh climate conditions...
not at all.
Poverty, corruption, and especially fundamentalism and violence are the worst part of this place.
Because, dear viewers, Afghanistan is above all a country of war.
In 1978 the Saur Revolution, a communist based revolution, took place.
One year later, in 1979, the Soviet Army invaded the country to consolidate the communist government.
Since then, Afghans have not known what peace means.
But before, to be honest, the situation wasn’t really good either.
Afghanistan was, is and probably will be for a long time, one of the poorest countries
on Earth, with one of the hardest and most hostile living conditions - especially for
women.
In this country 6 of every 10 people don’t know how to read or write, almost half of
its population doesn’t have access to drinking water, and it’s difficult to find a single
family which hasn’t been devastated by war and violence.
We can say safely that if someone was able to choose where they were to be born…
No one would ever choose Afghanistan…
The last great conflict (which still persists to this day) burst onto the global stage in
October 2001, when the President of the United States, George W. Bush, decided to invade
Afghanistan as a response to 9-11.
By that time Afghanistan was led by the Taliban, a radical religious-political group which
protected members of Al-Qaeda - Bin Laden among them.
The invasion was fast - the Taliban simply weren’t an obstacle for the massive American
war machine.
16 years and 3 Presidents later though and it has been named by many the longest war
in US history - it’s already longer than the war in Vietnam.
And...
Believe it or not, the US is not “winning”
(WHAT’S HAPPENING?)
Sixteen long years of conflict, occupation, and hundreds of billions of dollars later
and it would seem logical to think that the US and NATO could have managed to have the
situation under control and Afghanistan would be close to reaching peace, right?
Well...
Nothing is closer to reality.
The truth is that each day that goes by, the Taliban regain ground.
Take a look to this map from the Washington Post: the colored areas are the ones controlled
by the Taliban: And well, this map shows the situation in
the beginning of 2017.
But today things are even worse, because as we just said the Taliban are regaining ground
almost every day.
The latest estimates show that the government of Kabul, the US, and NATO control less than
60% of the territory.
And the next map is going to show even more Taliban controlled regions:
”Afghan government controls just 57 percent of its territory, U.S. watchdog says”
But the loss of control by the Afghan government, and thus the US, shouldn’t just been seen
as territorial loss, but also economic loss.
For example, we can ask ourselves…
How can the Taliban finance their activity?
Where do all their resources come from?
Well, basically, that would be from heroin production.
Yep, as you might know.
Afghanistan is the biggest opium producer in the world, and this... this is the raw
ingredient used for heroin.
And, listen, Afghanistan is not just the world’s biggest producer, it controls between 80 and
90% of opium production globally!
The opium comes from papaver somniferum, the most popular plant among the Afghan farmers.
In Afghanistan most of its population live of farming.
We can say that most of the Afghan economy relies on two fields: international soldiers
and opium.
In fact, there’s little more than that.
So, for quite a while the Taliban have controlled the opium production in this country.
But now, also, they have realised that they can produce the heroin themselves, which is
a much more profitable activity.
And, well, that’s exactly what they are doing:
"Everything they harvest is duly processed inside the country.
They receive more revenues if they process opium before it has left the country".
William Brownfield, US Assistant Secretary for Drugs and Law Enforcement.
Estimates show that the Taliban could be raising around £3 billion every year from this.
And that’s despite all the money that the US has wasted trying to stop these activities.
An effort that, as you can see from this chart, hasn’t been helpful:
So despite all the effort made by the US, opium production remains at very high levels.
OK, so as a consequence of having all these resources, the Taliban are managing to sustain
a war that is not just allowing them to regain ground, but also has plunged the country into
violence.
And worst of all is that predictions are not good at all:
“The Taliban are getting stronger, the government is on the retreat, they are losing ground
to the Taliban day by day,” Abdul Jabbar Qahraman, a retired general.
Listen to this: the Taliban “army” has increased from between 2,000 to 10,000 soldiers
in 2005 to more than 60,000 today.”
But, at this point, the question is…
Why is the US losing this war?
Or, at least, why are they not winning?
(THE AFGHAN TRAP)
The United States has tried many different strategies in Afghanistan, but it seems that
nothing works.
In fact, generally speaking, there’s quite a lot of pessimism over this conflict.
And this is not just a matter of more or less soldiers.
When Barack Obama was a candidate for president he repeated all the time that Afghanistan
was “a war they need to win”:
We did not finish the job against al Qaeda in Afghanistan.
We did not develop new capabilities to defeat a new enemy, or launch a comprehensive strategy
to dry up the terrorists' base of support.
We did not reaffirm our basic values, or secure our homeland.
It is time to turn the page.
When I am President, we will wage the war that has to be won (..).
Barack Obama, 1st August 2007
When he arrived to the White House he deployed 100,000 soldiers and another 40,000 from NATO.
Even so, nothing changed.
Many experts say that the problem is that President Obama insisted all the time on an
exit plan with a “troop withdrawal calendar”, which is sort of like saying to the Taliban…
“Hey, look, don’t worry, all of this is temporary”.
But, beyond that, although the soldiers from the international coalition gained ground,
they couldn’t gain influence there.
So why is that?
Well, first of all, we are talking about a tribal country, with a culture of consolidated
violence.
It’s not easy for international troops to gain people’s trust and be able to distinguish
civilians from enemies, or even just know what’s happening on the ground.
The cultural leap is HUGE, and having suffered so many years of violence means that the Taliban
have plenty of experience…
On the other hand, there’s the corruption and the lack of credibility in the local government.
We can say safely that the Afghan government lacks of institutions which can provide anything
to the Afghan people.
And the few which exist are extremely corrupt.
In fact, this is one of the most corrupt countries on Earth:
“Ordinary Afghans don’t like the Taliban.
But they dislike the Afghan government even more.
[...] People don’t die for an army; they die for a country.
And who wants to die for the current Afghan government?”
Dexter Filkins, New Yorker reporter.
With all of this and the fear to the Taliban is easy to understand why every month, EVERY
MONTH, almost 4,000 soldiers and policemen desert the government of Kabul.
Further, we have to say that the strategy the US has taken with the Afghan government,
the politics and the institutions, it hasn’t worked…
Washington hasn’t even made the Afghan military able to function, with the exception of the
special forces, which is formed of 17,000 elite soldiers - they are the only ones who
are really fighting the Taliban.
Barack Obama understood that the war in Afghanistan was something that Afghan people should carry
out, though the US would be the one paying the bills…
Among all the problems, we have also have to add in: one, Pakistan who is being accused
of providing support to the Taliban, and two, an economy which doesn’t work at all, and
then three, a lot of concealed interests.
For example, have you thought about what interests Beijing, Tehran or Moscow have in this war?
One thing is clear here, these countries doesn’t want Afghanistan to be an American “colony”.
Because of all of this, after 16 years of war, the battle continues.
But now, at the Oval Office there’s a new President: Donald Trump...
(A HUGE MISTAKE?)
Trump has been saying for years that the war on Afghanistan is a huge mistake, and that
the US has to get out of there.
He said it, of course, though his favorite communication medium: Twitter.
He repeated it again and again: in 2011, 2012, 2013… all the way until his 2016 campaign.
It is time to get out of Afghanistan.
We are building roads and schools for people that hate us.
It is not in our national interests.
Do not allow our very stupid leaders to sign a deal that keeps us in Afghanistan through
2024-with all costs by U.S.A.
MAKE AMERICA GREAT!
Of course he didn’t miss an opportunity to mess with Obama:
Now Obama is keeping our soldiers in Afghanistan for at least another year.
He is losing two wars simultaneously.
But it wasn’t just Twitter, Trump insisted again and again: Afghanistan was a mistake.
LOOK:
And of course, in the presidential campaign he promised he will get the US out of Afghanistan
if elected.
BUT…
Now that he’s President…
Well, things seem to be quite different…
TRUMP’S NEW POSITION
On the 21st August, in the military base of Fort Myer in Virginia, Trump explained his
brand new strategy, and well…
Let’s just say that everything he’s been saying for years…
Came to nothing.
Trump’s new strategy is so similar to Obama’s that…
It’s really difficult to differentiate them.
Trump announced more troops, but not that many more...
Basically, the contingent will increase from 12,000 to around 16,000.
The training of the Afghan military and the fight against terrorism will become a priority.
More money will be spent, corruption will be battled, and there will be more pressure
on Pakistan
So, in other words, more of the same.
Nothing that the US hadn’t done before.
The main differences from Obama’s strategy are twofold: first there won’t be a withdrawal
calendar, and second Trump seems to not be interested in building Afghan institutions.
In fact, with the budget cuts on the State Department, Trump seems to rely more on arms
than politics.
And, it’s not yet clear what Trump plans to do with 16,000 soldiers what Obama couldn’t
do with 140,000, or how he thinks he can stabilize a country without solid and reliable institutions
which could gain local people’s trust and allow some economic development.
The average age in Afghanistan is around 18 years old, which is a really young population,
and this youth nowadays can’t work and doesn’t have any other future apart from what the
Taliban can offer them.
If Kabul or Washington are not able to build a framework of opportunities for these people…
The end of violence will be far away.
So the question must be: Is Donald Trump aware of this?
America First, America First.
So, 16 years, more than $800 billion, and thousands and thousands of military and civilian
losses later and United States is still bogged down in what many call the Afghan Trap.
And the truth is that Trump doesn’t seem to propose anything different.
Without institutions and without a multilateral willingness which must include Afghanistan's
neighbours, like China, it seems very hard to believe that weapons are going to be enough.
But now it is your turn: what should the US do in Afghanistan?
Leave your opinion on the comments below.
Also don’t forget to subscribe to our channel for brand new videos every Monday and Thursday.
Also, don’t forget to check out our friends at the Reconsider Media Podcast - they provided
the vocals in this episode
that were not mine!
And as always, thanks for watching!