2018 marks the 100th anniversary of independence for the Baltic states - Lithuania, Estonia
and Latvia.
These three northern European countries are known as the Baltic states for their border
along the Baltic Sea, but it was the neighbor along their other border that made independence
so hard-fought: imperial Russia.
Fast forward to 2018, and the Baltics are vibrant, independent nations.
But anxiety is in the air again, as Russia once again flexes its muscles in the region.
Hi guys, I’m Versha, and today we’re exploring the question: will the Baltics’ 100th anniversary
be a moment of celebration, heightened tension, or both?
First, a little bit of history.
As World War One reached its climax in 1918, empires were falling left and right, including
Russia’s.
Amidst the chaos, many new countries were born, including the three Baltic nations.
Lithuania declared independence on February 16th, 1918, followed by Estonia on February
24th.
Latvia would declare independence later that year, in November.
But it was just a few weeks after that, that their neighbor - now Soviet Russia - invaded
Latvia.
You see, as the Russian Empire was falling apart the previous year it led almost straight
into the October Revolution.
That revolution, led by Vladimir Lenin and the Bolsheviks, established the Russian Soviet
Republic, which later became the USSR.
And during the Second World War, the Baltic states were once again occupied, first by
the USSR, then by Nazi Germany, and then by the Soviet Union again.
That remained the case until the fall of the USSR in the early 1990s.
The Baltics became free nations once again, but with a weary eye always looking towards
Russia, and understandably so, given the patterns of occupation in the 20th century and even
prior to that.
One of the major steps these countries took to counter that weariness came in 2004, when
they officially joined NATO.
That was met with mixed feelings in Moscow.
Russia had opposed Baltic membership in NATO for the entirety of the 1990s.
In fact, in 1997 at the Helsinki summit, Russian President Boris Yeltsin reportedly tried to
make a “gentleman’s agreement” with U.S. President Bill Clinton that NATO would
not allow the Baltic states to join.
But Clinton refused, and years later, when George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin were the
respective leaders of their countries, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia joined the Alliance.
At the time, Putin had signaled that he was more willing to work with NATO and that Baltic
membership wouldn’t upset him.
But those feelings later changed, and seeing some of its closest neighbors folded into
a powerful Western military alliance is often cited as one factor in increasing Russian
aggression.
And speaking of that aggression: Current events do give the Baltic states a reason to worry.
After Russia invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea in 2014, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia were
immediately on high alert.
NATO increased its military exercises in the Baltic region as a signal to Russia that this
region was protected.
And in recent years, it’s actually been around the time of the Olympics that some
of Russian aggression has reached its peak.
It was in August 2008, during the Beijing Olympics, that Russia attacked Georgia to
prevent Georgia from retaking the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
The news of the two countries being at war came one day after Beijing’s opening ceremony,
and a few days before Russia and Georgia were due to compete against each other in women’s
beach volleyball.
At the time, Russia’s Olympic team leader called the Georgian President “mentally
ill,” and the International Olympic Committee had to step in to reiterate their commitment
toward world peace.
And it was in February 2014 when Russia invaded Crimea three days after the end of the Sochi
Olympics, hosted in their own Black Sea city.
But the timing of the Olympic Games have been correlating factors rather than causal ones.
The Russia-Georgia conflict had been intensifying for months before August 2008, as had the
situation in Ukraine dating back to November 2013.
In fact, some scholars think the international spotlight of the Winter Olympics in Russia,
meant Putin waited before being more aggressive toward Ukraine, while others have observed
he may have moved quickly after the Games concluded at least partially in order to distract
from the stories of financial corruption in Sochi.
But let’s come back to the current situation in the Baltics.
Any Russian conflict in the region is multi-layered and based on a combination of tense factors.
One very important factor is how Russia views the treatment of the ethnic Russian population
in the Baltic states.
When the Soviet Union broke apart and Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia once again became independent
countries, a complicated question of citizenship was born.
Lithuania had the most liberal policy and granted citizenship to everyone living there
at the time of independence, while Estonia and Latvia established complicated rules that
meant ethnic Russians had to take language and history tests before could be granted
citizenship.
The governments wanted native Russian speakers to prove they could speak Latvian or Estonian,
which many saw as a sign of discrimination.
To this day, some ethnic Russians living in the Baltics say they feel like second-class
citizens, and Putin has publicly said it is Russia’s intention to protect them.
That was the pretext for Russia moving into Crimea, which was an autonomous republic within
Ukraine that had a majority ethnic Russian population.
So it’s no wonder that the Baltics are nervous — and now, things are even more tense.
On February 5th, Lithuania’s president claimed that Russia had just deployed medium-range
missiles along its border.
Perhaps even more troubling for Lithuania was that Russia publicly acknowledged it - yet
another attempt to basically troll NATO and flex their muscles in the region.
None of this means that Putin will invade the Baltics.
Perhaps it’s all just for show - raising tensions among NATO members over whether it’s
worth risking all-out war with Russia to defend the Baltics, but also giving Putin a chance
to remind everyone that the Baltics are in his neighborhood.
But after 100 years of independence marred by various occupations, it’s definitely
a region to watch in 2018.
Do you think Putin will make a move in the Baltics in the near future?
Or do you think he has other plans?
Let us know what you think in the comments.
Don’t forget to like and subscribe for new videos like this every week and thank you
for watching NowThis World!