You know, I I believe with 10 percent conviction that we're in the
right sectors that this time is not different, the gold and silver
will do will perform as they have in the past.
And you know, volatility is rough, but don't conflate volatility for
risk, you know, I can't think of a lower risk sector to be in as far
as risk reward set up over the next few years in the precious metals
Market.
Yeah, it's nice to finally be talking on a day when silver is up, you
know, and it's been up for the last few weeks here.
We're looking at our fourth consecutive green week and silver which we
haven't seen in awhile where the last year.
So it seems like every time we talk, we've just been getting hammered.
So it's kind of nice to see some green on the screen.
Yeah.
As far as where we are now and I am confident the lows are in silver,
I've said that before and I've been wrong but I do think that's the
case and there's some
Reasoning behind that but that doesn't mean we're not due for a
short-term.
Pullback were getting extended here on the shorter time frames and a
lot of kind of sentiment and you're starting to see like on Twitter.
For example, when you start seeing the Rocketship emojis coming out
again and all that, that's usually kind of like a short-term caution
signal.
But I do think I am pretty confident here that we've kind of turned
the corner and silver and platinum as well a gold.
I think so too.
But less confident about gold.
Gold is a less favorable.
Risk-reward setup and Silver Platinum to me right now, but I like
David Brady who's on our team.
Here he came up with this framework to analyze Market.
He called it fi pissed at five PTSD and that's an acronym for
fundamentals in a market analysis.
Positioning on the co T Elliott wave sentiment, technicals, and then /
M4 manipulation.
And the idea is that the more of those things that kind of aligned for
a turn in the sector, the more confident, you could be the attorneys
happening and almost all of those things are pointing to that.
We've seen a turn in silver, but like I said, it doesn't mean we go.
Wait, up, what was support becomes resistance and in silver, I mean,
it was major major support their right between 2150 and 22 just called
22.
Well, here we are coming right back up to 22, dollar area, and that's
going to be stiff resistance.
I think we're going to punch through it.
But often, when you test a resistance level with the RSI extended
above 70, it's pretty rare.
The break right through it on the first attempt.
So what often happens?
You take a stab at it, $22 pullback, build some energy work off some
of that you Fork.
Optimism and then punch through it on the second or third time.
That's kind of what I'm expecting.
Yeah.
And what I like about charts is they kind of, they can remove your
emotions, their emotional bias, you can just see the data and what it
is.
And I can share my screen here, but or I can just describe it to you.
But yeah, the dollar had gotten extremely overbought in all time
frames.
That's no secret.
Everyone knows about that.
120, major resistance.
We didn't quite get there.
We got up to a peak about 115 and we lost the 50-day moving average
and you can
draw an up trend line going back to February of this year.
It's about eight eight or nine months.
Now, perfect trend line.
Every time we came back and back to that, boom, it bounced.
Well just earlier this week, we lost that support.
So to me, that means the path of least resistance is a pull back
towards the rising 200-day, moving average.
And that's, they'll be a pretty significant pullback that's around 104
on the dollar Index.
If that does materialized by the time we get there, you know, the
dollar might be oversold and do for a bounce and, you know, to me when
price
Is above arising 200-day.
Moving average, it's still in an uptrend.
So to lose that uptrend, status, we would have to get below the
200-day moving average and the 200 day moving average to begin.
The slope lower and to the people who made think God's a bunch of
technical analysis, kind of gobbledygook, this matters.
These are the things that matter to institutions the trading
algorithms, that really Drive these markets.
That's a key input into those algorithms is where is Price relative,
that 200 a moving average, what's the slope of the 200-day have we
made higher highs and higher lows.
So we're starting to
See, the first cracks in the trend in the dollar, but it's still
firmly locked in a long-term uptrend.
So it would be premature to say, hey, the uptrend is over, Lex.
We're seeing some cracks in them up front.
Here's the uptrend line.
I was talking about, so we we lost that.
So let's pull the short for silver here and whenever I look at charge,
I like to go big to small.
So let's start with the kind of longer-term several year chart of
silver.
This goes back to September 2019 and you can see what I like I said
what was support becomes resistance, right?
Here was big support.
Going back.
All the way to September of two thousand twenty held held held.
Once we lost that.
Now, we're coming up in testing it as a resistance on the weekly
chart.
We're not quite over bought.
But when you zero in a little bit on the daily chart, you can see a
Confluence of resistance right here, up here on the RSI, anything
above that red line indicates overbought.
So, we're getting starting to get a little bit over bought here and
we're at a Confluence of resistance.
You can see this downtrend line right here, this red line, we've
tapped that
All times going back to March of this year.
And here we are right at it now, and that red line coincides with the
200-day moving average here in yellow.
So, this is a key test right here.
Right now.
In silver, what I would kind of expect is maybe a little bit of
backing and filling here.
That seems to be the path of least resistance may be kind of pull
back.
You got the 50-day moving average, which is rising as support.
And then on the second attempt, you punch through that 200 now could
we just blast right through it now?
Yeah, I mean Silver's like a beach ball, just held underwater or a
compressed spring, choose your analogy.
And it could just pop a keep going.
I don't necessarily want to see that because these vertical moves tend
to, you know, fizzle out and they hurt the most number of retail
participants, I'd rather just a nice healthy uptrend, higher highs
higher lows and breakthrough at 200 and the second attempt.
Yeah I don't think it really matters too much.
I just buy 1 ounce bars too.
Generic bars myself here would be my answer I guess what?
Where I get the lowest premium.
Okay let's all go in reverse order their best outcome to me would be
I'll pull back or the gentle one low volume, if you look at charts,
you want to see high volume price Rises and low volume pullbacks to
support.
So, you know, I'd like to see pull backs towards the 200-day, moving
average specifically in Platinum and then for support to hold a little
bit of sideways consolidation, and then move up and take out
resistance after, you know, a few weeks of consolidation, you know,
week or two.
That I think that would be the best scenario for everyone and going
back to the other.
Oh, you said what needs?
To happen.
Well, I think all the pieces are in place and I hate to beat this
horse to death because everyone is talking about the FED.
But that's the reality is that's the near-term drivers fed policy.
And you know, I've said on your show many times, you know, I think
that the path is going to be, they'll slow the rate of interest rates
then kind of pause and then they'll do a 180 at some point.
I don't think, I don't think we have to wait for that 182.
See the big Catalyst, I think the when they just slow and there I
think their language at the last meeting kind of indicated.
Hey, we're going to start slowing the right here because the markets
are forward looking.
I think every where it might seem like a lot of analysts disagree.
I think all of us kind of see that slow pause 180 trajectory.
It just were mixing different words, mean, different things to
different people.
It's like to me a pivot means, a pivot is like this, you know, a
slight change in Direction, but you're going to continue changing that
way to some people.
I think the pivot means, like, just full-on QE debt.
Monetization just like, no, I don't think anyone expects them to just
go full, you know.
So, from what they're doing right now to hey, you know what, we're
going to start pumping QE and debt monetization sends Timmy checks
out.
Like, it's a process, and once that process begins, that's the pivot
and the medals will anticipate that, and I think that's what we're
starting to see right now.
At the press release, it indicated the pivot, and then in the comments
after the interview is where he kind of went back to that hawkish
comments.
But we're seeing things from like the World Bank and afterwards was at
Kashkari or like TF Metals.
Craig m
Cause of that goons I forget their names but one of the FED goons came
out and they kind of like polish they come out, make follow-on remarks
indicating.
You know it we're starting to see them, float, trial, balloons, and
put kind of preparing the market or slow slowing the rate of increase,
you know.
So there have been comments and it was mixed messaging in that last
jpowel, you know, the fomc meeting because the markets rallied at
first because he did indicate a
Pivot.
But then in the remarks afterwards is, when he kind of backpedaled on
that j-pal is also said, we're going to get positive real interest
rates.
And again, that can mean a lot of different things to a lot of
different people.
What are you compared to most of us?
I think would be inclined to look at the CPI which is somewhere around
just came out.
Seven point seven percent annualized.
So you'd say, oh well they got to raise interest rates above that,
that's not what the FED looks at.
They look at pce core and that pce core is around 5.2, it's 5 point
something I want to say 5.2,
So today them by their definition, if they can get the pce core,
excuse me, interest rates up to, or above that pce course, around five
percent, which is what they're targeting right now.
So, if inflation comes down, just a little bit down into the force, by
that pce core metric.
And they get interest rates, 25, that they're going to say, hey
victory positive, real interest rates, and I think that can happen by
January February in the markets, are looking beyond that.
That's where the pause comes to your following question.
Yeah, money.
Coming from crypto.
Yeah.
Last I checked I know the crypto market cap, total market cap, you
know, exceeded a trillion dollars there.
So if say half of that comes out or a percentage of that.
Yeah, that's enough to.
And it goes into silver and gold.
Yeah, it's enough to have an impact.
I don't think it's enough to like, send it to the moon or through, you
know, these big resistance levels, but it will be a positive impact.
I think that that will happen.
You know, money will gradually come out of crypto.
I'm not saying cryptos going away or anything like that, but I think
some will come out of it.
Into the metals and it will be a Tailwind just another Cohen as we
move forward.
You know, a couple of years here, really, I was going to say few
months but really A couple of years since that August 2020 high and
it's hard, I mean it's not easy for me either but you know I I believe
with 100 percent conviction that we're in the right sectors that this
time is not different.
The gold and silver will do will perform as they have in the past and
you know, volatility is rough but don't conflate volatility for
Risk.
You know, I can't think of a lower risk sector to be in, as far as
risk reward set up over the next few years in the precious metals
Market.