Whenever someone mentions Mexico, we probably think of tacos, tequila and mariachi bands!
But, unfortunately, it is also very likely that a moment later we will also think of violence,
drug trafficking and organized crime. In fact,
2023 has kicked off with a piece of news that has made headlines around the world:
N1(6 Jan 2023: Sinaloa cartel launches violent response as
Mexico recaptures El Chapo's son. – The Guardian)
Logically, the arrest of a narco is good news,
but the immediate consequences may not be so positive. When a big fish goes down,
it suddenly unleashes huge waves of violence to which many Mexicans have sadly become accustomed.
The reality, VisualPolitik viewers, is that violence is so deeply rooted in
Mexican society that it has even become part of popular culture.
There is a strong tradition of Mexican corridos, songs and ballads about politics,
romance and history. And I'm sure you've also heard of their more controversial variant:
the "narcocorridos," songs that tell the stories of narcos, who are portrayed, even heroically.
And, let's be honest, although Mexico is much more than all that, it unfortunately
makes perfect sense that we associate this country with the world of drug trafficking.
After all, it is the natural land bridge to the giant and coveted US market. For the narcos,
being so close to the world's largest narcotics consumption center is a no-brainer.
But, wait a minute, this alone doesn't explain why there is so
much violence in Mexico. After all, if it were all about the border,
the narcos could have set up shop in Canada too, right? Well, take a look at this map:
What you are seeing on screen is a map dividing the city of El Paso, Texas, and Ciudad Juarez,
Mexico. This area has always been considered one of the hottest spots in the American drug trade.
But what if I told you that El Paso is considered one of the safest major cities in the United
States, while Ciudad Juarez is considered one of the most violent cities in Mexico?
In fact, in 2021 Ciudad Juarez was rated the Mexican city with the second highest
number of homicides per 100,000 inhabitants.
So, the problem cannot only be drug trafficking, can it? Well, that's the way it goes. For many,
the real problem in this country is not the drug traffickers per se,
but above all the weakness and corruption of many of the Mexican institutions.
There are even experts who point out that a large part of Mexico is basically something
like a failed State where many citizens trust the narcos more than the State
itself. Or maybe the problem is that in those areas the State has practically no role and
all the control is in the hands of those same narcos. So much for confronting them!
Perhaps that is why ever since the Mexican government began to confront
drug trafficking directly in 2000, violence has skyrocketed and today
it is by far the country's biggest problem. The biggest problem and also
one of the top priorities of the current president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
The question, therefore, is: Why is there still so much violence in Mexico? To what
extent do the Mexican cartels have power? What successes is AMLO really achieving?
Today in this video we are going to answer all these questions,
but first let's take a look at some history.
T1(INTIMATE ENEMIES)
In general, the relationship between drug traffickers and governments has been quite
murky and stormy. You never know what you are going to find. For example, since the United
States declared war on drugs in 1971 under President Richard Nixon, dozens and dozens of
governments around the world have multiplied their efforts to try to crack down on drug traffickers.
However, the harsh reality is that all these efforts have been to little avail:
drug traffickers continue to place their merchandise left, right and
center throughout Europe and the United States... Which explains,
for example, why street prices have remained reasonably stable over the last few years.
We are talking about an entire gigantic billion-dollar industry whose power
networks reach the level of those who are supposed to confront them. The situation
is such that it is even believed that the CIA, the FBI and the DEA itself have
"allowed" narcotics to enter the United States in order to catch the big fish.
However, if there is one country where the collaboration between the State,
politicians and drug traffickers has become better known over time, it is precisely Mexico.
Without digging too deep, one of the parties with the most scandals and
accusations for its ties to drug trafficking is none other than
Mexico’s Institutional Revolutionary Party, better known as the PRI.
Quite simply, we are talking about a party that has controlled the government of Mexico for
more than 60 years. And that is a long time. Long enough to make friends in hell itself.
In fact, if the PRI's history has been characterized by anything, it is for being
plagued by all kinds of accusations of electoral fraud and, above all, corruption. But not just
any corruption, but corruption linked to drug trafficking and organized crime.
Do you want an example? Well, there are cases like Raul Salinas de Gortari,
one of the brothers of former President Salinas de Gortari, who was seriously
involved in corrupt dealings with the Gulf Cartel in the 1980s. He was arrested in 1995.
Yet, during the six decades of PRI governments, narco-violence never
became as serious a problem as it is today. So the question is, what on earth has changed?
Well, let’s see. During the time the PRI was in power, a kind of unwritten pact was established
whereby the narcos enjoyed a certain freedom of action as long as they did not sow chaos
in the country. That is, if they more or less behaved well, they could do whatever they wanted.
In fact, the PRI saw a golden opportunity to perpetuate itself in power, thanks to its
permissiveness with drug traffickers and organized crime, which guaranteed a certain social peace.
However, its northern neighbor, the United States, was not exactly satisfied with this
role. For the gringos, the fight against drugs was a crucial issue,
and had been so even before Nixon officially declared the "war on drugs".
For example, the first campaign to exterminate opiate crops in
Mexico took place as early as 1948.
And that was not the end of it. From 1948 on, the PRI had to juggle between the interests of
the United States and those of the PRI. And those interests often pointed in opposite directions.
So, although the PRI governments carried out such well-known operations as the Condor of
the 1970s to hunt down drug traffickers and dismantle crops in the Sinaloa Highlands,
they did not really do much damage. Let's just say that these operations functioned, rather, as a
way of appeasing the United States and convincing them that Mexico had finally got its act together.
In the meantime, Mexico's own political hierarchs enjoyed all their power. That is,
as long as they did not bother the local mafias
and cartels. Everybody won and nobody complained. Things more or less worked.
The problem? Sooner or later the narcos became so filthy rich that they began to
have more and more influence over a large part of the Mexican citizenry.
And, of course, it was just at that moment, when it was realized that the narcos could
become real competition for the political and military power of the State itself,
when it was decided to start fighting them once and for all. The problem? Well,
perhaps in the case of Mexico, that moment came a little too late.
Listen up.
T2(ALL OUT WAR)
New century, new government, Mexicans must have
thought. As soon as the year 2000 began, a new president took power:
Vicente Fox. From the PRI? No! For the first time in six decades, the PRI had lost power.
The PAN, the National Action Party, took the reins after the first peaceful transfer of
government in Mexico since the Revolution at the beginning of the 20th century.
A new era began, and with it, a new policy against the narcos. The new president,
Vicente Fox, aligned himself with US interests and launched an enormous
offensive against organized crime. And not exactly like those of the PRI,
which were more about appearances than real effectiveness. No, this time it was for real.
The Armed Forces began to play a more prominent role in the fight against drugs. In fact,
the Fox administration passed a new National Security Law that gave the Armed Forces more
capacity to act in civilian affairs in peacetime. And from then on it went straight after the cartel
bosses. So during his presidency it was not unusual to see news items like this:
N2((Mexico strikes blow to drug trafficking with capture of Tijuana cartel boss. – El País)
Wonderful, don't you think? Well, the reality is that his strategy of using
the Armed Forces and escalating the fight against the drug traffickers
bore sweet fruits, yes, but also some very bitter ones.
Drug trafficking to the US did not slow down but rather continued to
grow, cartels fragmented and suddenly violence rates skyrocketed. In the end,
during Fox's presidency the number of new cartels and organized criminal
groups multiplied. Let's just say one drug lord would fall and two new ones would spring up.
And, take note, because if you think the situation could not get any worse,
you are very wrong. After Fox came Felipe Calderón and the fight intensified.
In fact, Calderon is the president who formally proclaimed the war on drugs
in Mexico. He did it hand in hand with the United States thanks to the Merida Initiative.
So what did their strategy consist of? Well, basically to fight head-on against the narcos.
And when I say head-on, I mean fighting with all possible resources as if it were a real war.
Violence skyrocketed even more and what is even worse, the State could not win the war.
In 2012 it suddenly seemed that everything was going to stop with a stroke of a pen.
Why? Because that year the PRI returned to power with Enrique Peña Nieto. And the
truth is that things changed, but for the worse. Look at this graph:
The new PRI government registered the bloodiest figures in Mexican history. With Vicente Fox,
the number of annual homicides remained stable, with Calderón they began to rise like crazy but
with Peña Nieto... well, let's just say they broke all records in 2018.
There didn't seem to be any remedy in sight. And then in 2018,
a figure appeared who promised to completely change the security
strategy. Listen up. T3(HUGS, NOT BULLETS)
At this point in the movie, a populist leader becoming the president of a Latin
American country is not anything new. This is the perfect land for populist crops: Hugo Chavez,
Cristina Kirchner, Rafael Correa, Evo Morales, Gustavo Petro, Nayib Bukele... I am sure these
are names that do not take anyone by surprise. And, guess what? Mexico is no exception. In 2018,
our already well-known Andrés Manuel López Obrador, AMLO, came to the Mexican presidency.
The son of merchants and a descendant of Spanish and indigenous people,
AMLO paradoxically began his political career with the PRI. However, after the
fraudulent elections of 1988, he switched to the Party of the Democratic Revolution,
with which he became Chief of Government of the Federal District between 2000 and 2005.
From then on, little by little his popularity grew until finally in 2018,
on the third attempt, he won the presidential election.
And, keep in mind that AMLO has traditionally stood out not only for his messages,
his populist style or even his eccentricities,
but also for the discourse he has been defending for decades against the militaristic strategy
used by the various Mexican governments in their fight against drug trafficking.
In fact, the name of their strategy is tremendously catchy. Check it out.
("That I talk about hugs and not bullets. I say that I am going to keep on saying the same thing
[...] Do you think that only arresting drug lords is going to solve the problem? Nooo. Of course,
if we find them we will arrest them, but the purpose is to address the causes.
Hugs, not bullets. Sounds super nice, doesn't it? However, the reality,
VisualPolitik viewers, is that the success of the
slogan has not been translated into practice by a long shot. Take a look:
N3((Homicides decrease,
but AMLO's six-year term is shaping up to be the most violent one – Expansión)
Since AMLO took power, he has not been able to reduce crime rates much. In fact,
in the first two years of his presidency, 2019 and 2020,
almost the same number of homicides were reported as in Peña Nieto's fateful last year.
In fact, in the end, his promise to demilitarize
citizen security and return the army to the barracks fell on deaf ears.
In fact, AMLO has changed his mind so much that his star project, the National Guard,
has ceased to be an institution with civilian command to be directed by Sedena,
the Secretariat of National Defense.
In other words, he has militarized the National Guard that he himself created
in 2019, precisely, to get the army off the streets. And not only that,
he is now even delegating civilian tasks to the Armed Forces.
Let's see, it is true that this art of saying one thing and doing something else completely
is nothing new in Mexico, but it is striking coming from AMLO, a leader who put so much
emphasis throughout his political career on the demilitarization of public security.
Now, however, it is quite the opposite. He is even putting the Armed Forces through the roof.
C1("(SEMAR is the agency) most prepared to defend sovereignty and
confront the threats of smuggling and drug smuggling" – AMLO, 2021)
The problem is that with so much praise the president forgets the corruption. Without
going any further, in October 2022, the so-called Guacamaya Leaks came to light,
exposing tens of thousands of emails, conversations and official Sedena files.
Files and conversations on all kinds of issues: from AMLO's own health to the business of the
Armed Forces, which is now also in charge of infrastructure construction. Therefore,
it is not so unusual that we come across news like this:
N4(Military officers accused of financial irregularities
in construction of Banco del Bienestar branches. – InfoBae)
Nor can we forget that, throughout its history,
the Mexican Armed Forces has been involved in serious accusations of human rights violations.
In a way, this is what typically happens when you mix guns, power and corruption.
The question now is, is it paying off for AMLO to do exactly the opposite of what he promised
on security? Or, to put it another way, is AMLO's new strategy working for him? Well, let's
take a look. T4(THE NARCOTANKS)
Tanks and armored vehicles have now become fashionable,
if only because Ukraine is expected to receive dozens and dozens of tanks this year.
But even before military armored vehicles became fashionable, the narcos had already
had their eye on this possibility: using armored vehicles to consolidate their territorial power
in Mexico. Now, it's true that they are not armored vehicles manufactured
by the sophisticated military industry, but something a bit more commonplace... but they
are still dangerous. I'm talking about the so-called narcotanks, weirdos like this one:
And, of course, at this point, you are probably wondering:
but let's see, if even the narcos already have their own homemade tanks,
is it really possible that AMLO can improve the country's security? Well, in theory,
the figures say yes, not much... But something is better than nothing.
Since the arrival of López Obrador, crime has remained very active as it was under
his predecessors. However, it is also true that in 2021 he did manage to bring homicides down by 4.3%
from the previous year. Even better, in 2021 there were on average some 26.6 homicides per 100,000
inhabitants, or 9 more homicides per 100,000 inhabitants than in 2015.
On the other hand, serious crime and kidnapping cases have continued to maintain the downward
trend they started in 2019. Let's see, don't get me wrong,
the truth is that the data continues to be bleak, and the militarization strategy
continues to be a bottomless pit that is not achieving the expected results.
Perhaps defeating the narcos will require other methods. And it is here that we have to
take into account that the very functioning of the cartels makes it very difficult to take them down.
Don't forget that they use increasingly advanced combat methods and weapons: drones, narcotanks,
even weaponry used by the US infantry itself, such as the Browning M2 .50 caliber machine guns.
And, if we add to this the fact that Mexican institutions and services do
not cover the whole country, it stands to reason that the cartels will not disappear.
What’s more, do you remember when at the beginning of this video we told you about
the arrest of Ovidio Guzmán, Chapo Guzmán's son?
Well, Ovidio has been the capo of the Sinaloa Cartel since Mexico
extradited his father to the United States in 2017. And the question is,
do you think that even if Ovidio Guzman has been arrested, the Sinaloa Cartel is
going to stop trafficking drugs, extorting whoever they want, or trafficking people?
Exactly: You guessed it, of course not! And this is one of the key points of drug
trafficking and organized crime in Mexico: they are no longer pyramidal organizations,
now they have a decentralized organization with hubs that work independently. In other words,
if the leader falls, the whole team does not fall,
but in practice everything continues more or less as if absolutely nothing had happened.
So everything indicates that AMLO's strategy is going to turn out to be yet another failure in the
already long struggle against the Mexican narco. And keep in mind, we are talking about failure
not because he has not achieved any improvement, we have already seen that this is not the case.
In any event, the cartels are very well armored, and the Mexican State does not have a strategy
capable of confronting them to decimate them once and for all. AMLO's idea of "hugs,
not bullets" is not bearing fruit and Mexico continues to be one of the most dangerous
countries in the world where the narcos do not give hugs, but bombings and kidnappings.
This is the terrible reality in Mexico but now the question is for you. Do
you think AMLO will be able to turn the situation around before he leaves office?
What alternative to militarization do you think we can find? Is the war
on drugs really worth it? You can leave us your answer below in the comments.
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