going for it on fourth down and analytics have changed
the mindset it used to be coaching a very careful not to do
anything that would seem to be unconventional because if you
do the unconventional thing and you fail you get criticized and
if that happens enough
you get fired so you always reside in the boundaries of
the conventional decisions I remember how crazy it was
Sharon years ago when Barry Switzer went for it on fourth
and one from his own 29 in the game against the Eagles how
nuts we thought it
was now we probably look at it say it was the right thing to
do and that pendulum has swung because and I'm a firm believer
in this internally the analytics departments in which
the owners have invested so much money the ones who really
want to win
they've got the beefed-up analytics Department if you
don't do what the formulas to Jess you got to answer directly
to the owner and the owner is getting his or her information
directly from the analytics experts and they understand
that they speak that language more easily than
they speak x's and o's
we're seeing these aggressive moves that the analytics would
support
but again if you roll the dice 100 times and it comes out 51
times your way that's the way you should do it all the time
49 times it doesn't that that's that's part of what gets lost
on this these numbers are based on many many
iterations in the idea that if you do this all the time it's
going to work out for you just enough times to make it
worthwhile the problem is if it's just a little bit of
a difference is give me a lot of times where it doesn't
work out
yeah and Mike I would add two point conversion to that too or
seeing way more of those earlier in games then we used
to it again that goes back to analytics there's no question
about that if you even go back probably 10 years at least
fifteen
when you and I were growing up the guy if it's 4th and one in
your own and you're never going for and I mean that's just your
view send in the punt team out not giving it a second thought
and now there is a second thought
and teams do go forward in their own End early in games
you saw Mike McCarthy do it against the Broncos and it
backfired on him when they didn't get it twice in a row
and their first two drives me ended up getting blown out so
when
they make or Misty's fourth Downs or these two-point
conversions they are look like Geniuses or they look like
idiots but as you said when you when you have the owner there
with the analytics person whispering in their ears while
this is what you were supposed to
do it might save the coach's job anyway
the numbers say do it all the time because if you do it all
the time more than half of the time it will work out to your
advantage it's that simple and sometimes the number is 60% 65
whatever but you take the analytics to the extreme
as little as 50.01% if you do it every time it will fall your
way just that one little Pebble that one little Grain on
the scale that tips it that way then the idea should do it all
the time and you know this
is the part I try to make him this is where the analytics
Mafia gets very very defensive they get very very
condescending the point is
any given coach does not have the luxury to hang around for
all hundred times that you do it they haven't work 51 times
it could be that the first 49 times you do it at 5 and you
get fired the next 51 come up your way
for the next coach so that that's where you've got to be
pragmatic you've got to be practical and you've got to
have a coach who understands when to say
hey look I get it I comprehend the numbers I realize that that
the mathematically prudent thing for me to do here is to
do this because it's mathematically proven to do it
one hundred out of a hundred times
is it going to hit 51 times but this is one of those times that
I'm going to air on the 49% side and I felt that they
specifically in the Chargers Steelers game sharane when it's
tied up late and when the charges are
facing fourth-and-one from their own 34 and they decide to
go for it you know you look under laboratory settings
I didn't you punch those numbers in its 3434 tie game
with 3:48 to play 4th and one from your own 34 yeah it makes
sense to go for it there because then there's a certain
percentage are going to hold on to a field goal in a certain
percentage you're going to get a field goal score touchdown
that's how it played out but the problem is
that's formula ignores the fact that the team that's going for
it on 4th and 1
was up 2710 and blew the lead and the opponent had all
the momentum and the opponent is feeling good about itself and
you are handing them a golden opportunity to take the ball
and score a touchdown and go up 7 and then next thing you know
they're up 14 I mean you could feel kind of like just like
that sense of how my God why are they doing this I just
think I know that the formulas get more and more complicated
and detailed all the time I don't think they take into
account how much momentum the other team has developed as
it's erased a 17-point deficit in the second half I don't
think that's part of the analysis yet
yeah and the emotions are out of the analysis of Misha Street
numbers in Brandon Staley just goes for it no matter what and
I didn't like that one and it worked out for the Chargers in
the long run the only thing is I guess if you
figure they're going to score anyway and they have all
the momentum will have more time to go back down and score for
ourselves and it and it worked out for him a field goal to
a touchdown and so nobody's questioning today that decision
by Brandon Staley
but I do wonder what would have happened if they had punted
that ball Mike that the Steelers may not have gotten
a field goal perhaps the Chargers hold them and have plenty of
time to go down run out the clock and and scored
the touchdown but
whatever it worked out every time he's in the situation
regardless of where they are on the field regardless of what
else has happened in the game that he's just flat-out going
to go for it and I didn't look up the number today but if
one point last time I looked up they had gone for it more times
than any other team on 4th I assume that still the case
based on us always sing the Chargers go for it on fourth
down it's another data point that goes into the broader
formula that justifies going for it 4th and 1 in that
setting tie game with that much time left cuz it worked me
that's taking past scenarios and how they played out and and
baking them into
an effort to look forward that's fine because if you if
you have enough evidence
and enough iterations at some point the numbers are going to
harden and if they keep playing football games over weeks and
months and years the numbers are going to settle in even
more and it's going to become very clear and it is it is just
a
matter of pushing a button but put that that just and
I remember when I first started to really take off in baseball
and people are saying all this has application in football to
baseball is basically a one-on-one battle between
pitcher and batter because you you
expect the fielders to be good enough to do their jobs if
the ball is hit to them now I know there are errors but at
the highest level they're not as prevalent as they are elsewhere
with football it's an 11 on 11 fight where every guy
has an assignment and every guy across from him has
an assignment and something's got to give and all it takes is one
guy who isn't good enough one guy who's maybe the backup one
guy who who you know isn't feeling well
whatever the case may be all it takes is one weak Link in
the whole thing collapses and and I've always been a little leery
about these Broad proclamations and judgments and decisions and
I think it does have a place I'm not going to say it doesn't
but I do think there's some situations we have to consider
you know just that that it shouldn't have been doing up
games
you get a sense in the building there's a sense it's intangible
but it's there when the momentum swings you can feel it
through the TV screen sometimes watching the game you just it's
it's real and I don't think that's conducive to any
mathematical formula that anyone
could device
you and I are on the same wavelength on this mic there's
no question about that I think there's a place for analytics
but I also think they're being over use at this point you look
at Bill Belichick I mean in the NFL should be looking at
Bill Belichick and what he does and how he does it and he
doesn't bite Gutfeld now I remember back in that Colts
game it didn't work out for them many years ago very well
but for the most part he knows when to do it and when
not to do it and it's a very successful doing it when they
do do it because he has a such a good gut feel for when they
should use it and by the way great matter producer just
looked up the numbers Lions 23 fourth-down attempts Washington
23 rounds 22 Chargers Titans Jaguars at 18 so Brandon seller
does not go for it more than the other happy to see Dan
Campbell do going for some of those when you're in ophir team
I think you should go for it most times Mike to try
to pull some extra possessions and score some points when
you're not very good at scoring points
and that's a time where you would ignore the analytics and
do what's in the interests of trying to give a desperate team
a kick in the ass so there are times where the analytics would
tell you don't go for it on 4th down but you defy
the math and against the closer you get to 5149 the greater
the reason there is to consider maybe this is one of those
situations where I go with the 49 maybe there are other
factors that favor me doing the thing that is just a hair under
and if I have to have an awkward conversation with
the owner tomorrow I'll defend myself and that really has
changed the Dynamics inside a football organization someone
explain that to me earlier this year that did it makes
the owners far better versed in communicating with coaches and
not being Bamboozled by coach-speak used to be
the owners would not feel like they could have an intelligent
conversation with x's and o's and now the owners can cut
through the BS because they have a common language when it
comes to analytics and it's making coaches more accountable
and it's making them more willing to do things that
otherwise wouldn't do because they know if they don't do
the thing that the analytics expertise sang that
had set you need to do it you going to have a problem
the next day