I have to show you something which will seem very bearish and very bad.
So hold your--
- Perfect! - Hold your horses here.
I don't know what to say in English,
but this may be a little bit scary,
but it also is something that we probably should pay attention to.
Hey, everybody! I'm coming to you again.
It's Monday.
Monday with The Moon.
Here's Carl.
Make sure to subscribe to his channel down below.
Carl, how are you doing today?
I'm doing fantastic.
I know that crypto is a little bit boring right now,
but I'm always excited to be in crypto
because I know that we're part of the big revolution,
so even if we're down a little bit for this week or next week,
I don't care so much.
I mean, it's a long run.
And--
and a dip is just an opportunity to just accumulate more, I think.
And, yeah, so I'm doing very, very well.
How are you doing?
Well, I was doing better because I thought you were going to come on here
and you're going to tell me that Bitcoin is going to explode today to a million dollars.
And it did not.
You prepared me for a couple of weeks maybe of boring action.
Why don't you tell us a little bit more about that?
About $1 million?
No, no, tell us a little bit more about where Bitcoin's going.
Ah.
This is something I can probably do.
Let's head straight into the charts.
Okay. Let's start off on the daily timeframe.
I believe last week,
we were talking about that we had seen this bearish divergence play out,
and we also, of course, broke this key support level and resistance level here
at $53,000 approximately.
And we also broke this upward trending support,
which, of course, means that we have broken the structure,
the key structure, which is bearish.
And ever since then, we've had just kind of some consolidation.
I think last week, what I said literally was I think we're going to consolidate here.
Because usually when we see something like this,
we don't go straight back up again,
and usually we don't go straight down like this either
because we saw a huge wick to the downside,
and usually when this happens,
we usually go a little bit sideways for some time.
And the two most important horizontal levels right now are this level right here,
like I said, $53K,
and then this for support down here at $41K approximately.
As long as we're above this level, you could kind of say that we're--
on the weekly timeframe, we're bullish,
but obviously on the daily, we're clearly in the bear market here.
That is something that actually is very important to understand.
We are in a daily bear market right now.
You don't hear many people say that because it sounds horrible,
it sounds bearish, and it doesn't sound so much fun,
but it is true.
Just like back here, when we broke this level right here.
Or, no, sorry. This level right there.
People that follow my channel, remember how I went fully bearish here?
And I told people that we're entering into a daily bear market with a bigger bull cycle,
but still,
it's a bear market.
And I think it's very important to understand that we're bearish here
and we have lower highs, lower lows.
And in the immediate short term,
if you have to pick up or down,
you need to understand that down should be more likely on the daily.
But when you zoom out to the weekly timeframe,
you can see that on the weekly,
we still have a trajectory of higher lows and higher highs,
so you could actually make the case that the weekly timeframe is bullish
and the daily timeframe is bearish.
And if you bring out the weekly EMA ribbon,
then even the weekly ribbon confirms that we're still above this weekly exponential support,
which is a good sign.
And I think this just goes to show that the bull cycle is still intact.
The only thing that is happening right now is that we're getting a daily bear trend,
just like we saw back there.
And hopefully, we will see a reversal just like we saw last time.
So something like this, hopefully.
- Yeah, that looks-- - It's something.
Now, let me ask you this question.
You know, when you really look at the weekly and the daily,
you know, the last run-up from, you know, say November to May,
you know, it lasted a really long time,
and we got a mini bear market that lasted about two to three months.
When you look at what we just went through,
where we, you know, went up from the, you know, middle to end of July
up until November,
that's a much shorter timeframe.
Do you think we're going to see a shorter mini bear market here?
Because, you know, basically, we had a gigantic exhausted run up,
a drop down,
consolidation,
and then it wasn't nearly as quick of a rise
or as big of a rise that was in the first half of the year.
Look.
Basically, what's your projection for how long we're going to chop sideways here?
Is it closer to a month?
Two months? Do you think longer?
So I guess this is a great question because
I have to show you something which will seem very bearish and very bad.
So hold your--
- Perfect! - Hold your horses here.
I don't know what to say in English,
but this may be a little bit scary,
but it also is something that we probably should pay attention to.
So what we can see here is that on the weekly timeframe,
we are actually forming a bearish divergence,
a pretty big one,
like a very-- like, I would say, it's confirmed even by now
because we broke the support here,
and that was kind of the level for me where
the divergence is actually getting pretty much confirmed.
And this bearish divergence,
I mean,
if you--
if you follow the, like, standard technical analysis of this,
you should expect some kind of, you know, bigger consolidation,
maybe like this,
before we start going up.
And I mean, then we could maybe go bullish already,
or I mean, maybe we had to wait until, like, I don't know,
somewhere May or September, August next year for going bullish.
But
like, you cannot really--
you cannot take a bearish divergence
and just say--
like, you cannot pick dates based on that.
I'm just saying right now that there is a bearish divergence,
and that is something we have to pay attention to.
And it could also very well be a triple bearish divergence,
where we go up like this,
and we see another top like that,
- but that creates yet another divergence. - Yeah.
That's also possible. Like this.
Well, that would make sense because that would set up for a big bear market.
Yeah. I mean, this could actually--
Yeah. This could happen.
We could go-- but this could take us all the way, way above $100,000
and then back down, down again.
So I know that people want me to say exactly where we're going,
but with this bearish divergence,
it's not enough information to give any price prediction.
I'm merely telling you guys that
it is--
- it is something that we have to just kind of pay attention to. - Yeah.
And I think that it is on the bearish side.
And maybe this means that we are going to consolidate longer
than people are expecting right now,
longer than even I initially thought.
I still think there's a chance we just go straight up here,
- but maybe this bearish divergence - Yeah.
is going to lead to longer consolidation before we see this happen.
I guess that's what I'm seeing.
So, what you're saying right now, Carl, if I'm really reading you correctly here is
it can go up,
or it could go down,
or it could go sideways?
Is that correct?
I mean,
- Yes. - so up and down are both definitely possible,
- and sideways is always a possibility. - Perfect!
If it doesn't go sideways, we can also go backwards maybe.
- Who knows? - Yeah.
Alright, guys. Well, there it is.
There's your rich formula.
You all are going to get rich now using that information.
- Yeah, I do like the-- - If you want me to--
if you want me to, like, really make a summary which is more, like, clear,
I would say this.
Instead of saying up or down,
I think we're definitely bearish here.
Like, on the daily timeframe,
it's definitely down if you had to choose a direction because you broke key support.
So in the immediate short term, everyone wants to know up or down.
- I would have to say down for the daily timeframe. - Yeah.
Well, unfortunately, Carl, you've been correct about that a lot
that you've been on my channel,
and I've been bullish, and you've been bearish.
And unfortunately,
there have been a lot of times where, like I said, you know,
the price has not really cooperated.
One thing I would like to point out real quick, if you could pull up those divergences again,
back on the weekly where you're at,
I would say also, if you look from
Jun--
May, April of 2019,
you know, we also had a really huge bearish divergence playing out
between May and about, you know, June of 2020.
So, back further on the chart,
basically that last, the last big bearish divergence that was on the RSI.
Yeah, right there. From right there,
you know, down to the other end,
I mean, it's not like that one played out massively or anything like that.
Basically, if you really look at that, that's one long sideways action.
Basically. In between there and, you know, the middle of 2020.
So we did have a big drop there right in January, the beginning of the year.
I guess that was--
or was that the March crash?
That was the March crash right there.
So I don't know.
I'm just saying, like, it's definitely possible that this is not going to play out right now.
I think when you look at that, at the triple scenario,
if you look at the triple scenario,
where we do have one more monster run-up,
and then we get the triple bearish divergence with three peaks,
- and then that leads to a bear market, - Yeah.
I think that would make a lot of sense based on the history of Bitcoin.
I know.
I would love to come here and be only bullish, only bullish, only bullish.
Yeah.
At this exact moment,
- for me, I just can't, but-- - Yeah.
but I still really, really, really believe that we're still in a bull cycle.
The only thing that is happening now is probably just showing us that
we're getting lengthening cycles.
So we're maybe not seeing this four-year atomic clock kind of thing that we've seen
or that people speculated before.
Maybe we're seeing lengthening cycles.
Maybe the bull market top is going to happen at the end of next year,
or maybe even the year after that.
But I still think we're in a bull market
because I think the bull market top is for sure going to be above $100K.
So I'm still 95% sure of that.
Yeah, but you were--
you were 99.9% sure of it maybe a couple months ago.
Is that correct, you think?
- Yeah. Then the price's going down a little bit. - I was as well.
Yeah.
So alright, guys.
Well, that's all we got for today.
Carl painted a very bleak picture,
and I tried to add some very colorful touches for some bullish scenarios at the end,
and he shot me down again.
So alright, guys. I want to know.
You guys, drop your comments down below.
Who's right? Who's wrong?
Will it go up? Will it go down? Will it go backwards?
As Carl suggested today.
Drop those comments down below.
That's all I got.
Thanks, Carl.
Be blessed.
BitBoy out.