Scotland and England have a chequered history, with the adjoined countries spending many
hundreds of years warring.
In 1707 the two countries unified under James the 6th, the Stuart Kin, becoming known, along
with the already unified Wales as Great Britain.
In 1922, Great Britain and Northern Ireland joined to become the United Kingdom, although
it hasn’t exactly been marital bliss since then, with the question of a kingdom breakup
never being too far from peoples lips…
Hello and welcome back to Life’s Biggest Questions, the channel that loves to talk
science, science fiction, politics, pop culture, history and what ifs.
I am your Host Rebecca Felgate and today I am asking What If Scotland Left the UK?
Before we get into the video I want you guys to let me know where you are from – are
you from the UK perhaps?
Also while you are down there, why don’t you leave a thumbs up on this video and share
it with a friend.
Check out our social media links in the description box and also do stick around til the end of
the video when I will be reading comments from one of my recent big answers.
So.
Scotland.
There is a lot of understandable discontent in Scotland.
The whole country is bound to the pound but has just only 56 seats in in British Parliament
out of a total of 650.
Decisions are made in Westminster that effect Scotland but a lot of Scottish people feel
like they have no control over the outcome because of their small political representation.
This discontent lead to the Scottish Independence Referendum of 2014.
Scots were given a Yes or No vote with regards to leaving the UK.
The vote achieved turnout of 84 percent of the populace, of which 55 percent voted no
to independence.
However, since then things have changed.
The UK as a collective had a referendum of their own in 2016 as to whether to leave the
European Union.
The voting turn out was 71.8 percent and leave won 51.9 percent to 48.1 percent remain…the
only thing is that the majority of leavers were in England and Wales, with 62 percent
of Scotland wishing to remain….
This has sparked the whole independence debate once again.
SO, what if Scotland left the UK?
Well, the population of what is left of the UK would drop to around 59 million, drop from
being 21st most populous country in the world to the 24th.
The population of newly independent Scotland would be just 5.45 million, making it a cert
small country, the 127th most populus in the world, trailing behind Palestine, Ireland,
New Zealand and the Central African Republic.
The UK would only lose 8 percent of its population, but it would lose 32% of its land, which would
mean a few key things….
Reduced to 164,523 square kilometres, The UK would become a very very small country
with a pretty large population….
Things would start to feel hella cramped.
There would be far less space for industrial, factory based businesses to grow.
Perhaps factories and warehouses would begin to develop further in Northern Ireland and
Wales, who may in turn benefit from increased economic growth.
So, speaking of the economy – Brexit already has battered the UK.
Growth rate has changed, the pound has dropped to its lowest since the recession, Real wages
have fallen.
And that is all before we have even reached a Brexit deal.
Without Scotland the UK’s economic standing in the future would likely be weaker still.
But how much weaker?
In 2014 it was calculated that Scotland adds 106.3 billion pounds of Goods and Services
in Gross Value Added, which is roughly 10 percent of the UKs total GVA.
The UK would also lose 7% of its exports value.
Defence in the UK would be damaged – TRIDENT, our nuclear defence system, is based in Scotland.
We would likely just move it, but Scotland co-invested and it would be a messy conscious
uncoupling at the same time the UK is also divorcing the EU.
History teaches us that fighting a battle on two fronts is notoriously tricky.
Could we cope?
Politically, without Scottish votes, it is likely that the UK would become far more conservative,
which may lead to further privatization.
I would be most interested to see what happened to the National Health Service and how well
those with smaller incomes faired.
Without Scotland, the UK may seem even more unattractive to young talent.
The millennial workforce loves travel opportunities and with less land and no more free movement
from the UK to other EU nations, would the UK be driving out younger talent?
Personally speaking, I am pretty glad I moved to Canada before this entire mess began.
Realistically, though, the UK would continue to be a big economy on the world stage.
The history of the UK is probably enough to help it prevail.
It would continue to be a nuclear armed nation with membership to the UN and Nato.
Side note though, it would need a new name as the kingdom would very much no longer be
united.
Any suggestions for the new name?
So, that is the remainder of the UK dealt with for now, but what about the newly independent
Scotland?
How will they fare ridin’ solo?
Scotland would now be able to govern themselves from Holyrood in Edinburgh without having
decisions made some 400 miles away in London.
There are of course A LOT of questions about what direction the country would take after
300 years of being bound to their southerly neighbours.
For starts it would be, at the moment, represented by a strong female first minister in the form
of Nichola Sturgeon.
Scotland has plenty of space to expand and grow, and things may initially look up for
the Scottish people as Gross Domestic Product increases to around 120 pounds per head.
Scotland’s main exports are whisky, gas, and the big O. Oil.
This would be contentious for the UK, but Scotland has the North Sea oil…although
its dwindling.
If they want to grow as a country and boost their current export value of around 18.2
billion, then they would need to up their industry game.
Although…perhaps this would be a great and attractive opportunity for foreign investors.
Scotland would be likely to continue using the pound but if it did, it would not have
an input on monetary policy like interest rates, which would be a problem if the country
fell into recession.
This may mean the country eventually looks to create its own currency, or perhaps it
would adopt the Euro.
If Scotland can upturn its economy and remain in the EU, it may become a very attractive
place for business people and young talent to live.
One contentious issue would be the boarder and relations with the rest of the UK.
Would it be a hard boarder or a soft boarder?
Another huge question…
What of the British Monarchy?
What would the Queen do?
She certainly wouldn’t like this.
Many people say the monarchy would fall if Scotland and the UK were torn away from one
another…and to be honest I can see where they are coming from.
With less land mass and less subjects, what use really is the crown?
Wider reaching questions which turn this question into a series of other questions include…what
would happen with Northern Ireland?
Would a separation of Scotland increase the chances of a unified Ireland?
Would Catalonia leave Spain?
Would Quebec Leave Canada?
The Butterfly effect could become so huge that we should really leave this question
here for now… but lets continue the discussion in the comments section down below!
So guys…where are you from and what do you think would happen if the UK and Scotland
parted ways?
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