Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, has been executed.
All signs point to Vladimir Putin finally exacting his revenge.
He did this precisely 2 months after Russia's most infamous mercenary group staged a prominent
uprising and marched on Moscow to protest the disaster in Ukraine.
Well, all of that is history now.
The commercial jet with registration RA-02795 (Pron: Romeo-Alpha-02795), owned by the Wagner
Group, crashed this Wednesday, August 23, 2023, in the Tver region after departing from
Moscow en route to St. Petersburg.
What you see on the screen now is the plane going down.
But what exactly happened for this aircraft to crash into the ground?
Well...
The truth is, according to both circles close to the Wagner Group and Western intelligence
sources, the plane might have been shot down by none other than Russia's anti-aircraft
defence.
Presumably on board were the leader of Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and his right-hand man
and the military head of the organization, Wagner's commander, Dmitry Utkin.
This indicates that we are witnessing a clear execution.
All signs suggest that once it was confirmed that both leading figures of the mercenary
group were on the same plane, the Kremlin decided to take them out in the most brutal
way possible.
It can be said that Prigozhin has been the epitome of Russian politics over the past
decades.
From opening a hot dog stand chain in the early 90s and later a few better-established
restaurants – through which, by the way, he made connections with the Russian president
– this catering mogul became a full-fledged warlord.
He led what is probably the most significant and well-known mercenary company in the world.
With businesses in Russia, Africa, the Middle East, and many other parts of the world, Prigozhin
even became one of the most visible faces of the brutal Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Let's say he is the best representation of the gangster capitalism that prevails in Russia.
However, now his story has come to an end.
Of course, there are still many things we do not know and might never know, but there
are also things we do know for certain.
Dear friends, you might be wondering: What exactly transpired?
Why did Vladimir Putin target the leader of the Wagner Group, and crucially, why choose
this moment?
What are the potential ramifications of this entire ordeal?
In this video, we'll delve into all these pressing questions.
Let's get cracking.
One thing that's clear in this entire matter is that Putin has never hesitated when it
comes to pursuing and eliminating his adversaries, often in the most terrifying ways imaginable.
For instance, the fugitive Russian spy, Alexander Litvinenko, was poisoned in a London hotel
cafe with radioactive polonium; the opposition politician Boris Nemtsov was shot dead near
the Red Square, and journalist Anna Politkovskaya was executed in her own home.
These are just 3 examples from a long, extensive list of individuals who've been poisoned,
shot, or simply thrown out of the window of a tall building in Russia.
On this list, we can find notable names like opposition leader Alexei Navalny or Sergei
Skripal, a former double agent settled in the UK.
Both narrowly escaped death after being brutally poisoned.
Because, in truth, the assassinations orchestrated by the Russian president often aim not only
to end a particular individual but to also instill the utmost terror in any potential
adversaries.
But pay attention: while this has been a consistent theme throughout Putin's era, the war in Ukraine
has marked a turning point.
It's been a significant shift.
In recent months, numerous individuals from what we can term Russia's business elite have
lost their lives.
Members who perhaps weren't entirely loyal or showed little enthusiasm for the war.
We're talking about executives who, in some instances, lost their lives alongside their
families, both within and outside of Russia.
Even in D.C., we find peculiar stories like this one:
(A Putin Critic Fell from a Building in Washington.
Was It Really a Suicide?.
Politico)
This represents a significant shift, as it means that even those within the government's
own circles are no longer safe.
And now, the latest victim has been targeted.
What you're seeing is a photograph of the Wagner Group's headquarters in St. Petersburg
shortly after the news of its leader's death broke.
(The head of the Wagner Group, Hero of Russia, a true patriot of his Motherland, Yevgeny
Viktorovich Prigozhin, died as a result of the actions of traitors to Russia.
But even in Hell he will be the best!
Glory to Russia!
Grey Zone)
("(…) no one should be surprised.
The disastrous war in Ukraine led to a private army marching on Moscow, and now – it would
seem - to this".
White House National Security Council Spokesperson Adrienne Watson)
President Biden himself has been very clear.
And take note, the fact that this wasn't a surprise is... strictly true.
Just two days before the event, the U.S. State Department for the first time urged its citizens
to immediately leave Belarus.
[Could it be that they had some information and feared repercussions in a country where
thousands of Wagner soldiers are stationed?]
In any case, this was what was published on August 13th, a mere 10 days before the execution.
(Russia’s Wagner Group leader will be killed by Putin or lead another coup within 6 months,
expert says.
SCMP)
C2(Putin went on TV and called Prigozhin a traitor”.“Everyone knows what they do
with ‘traitors,’ and Putin hasn’t done that.
He wants to see him dead”.
. Christo Grozev, a journalist with the highly respected investigative outlet Bellingcat)
Alright, Putin wanted him out of the picture (((neck-slicing gesture))), of that there
was little doubt and now there's none at all.
Don't forget that exactly 2 months before the plane was shot down, Prigozhin led a mutiny
against the Kremlin's top brass.
During this uprising, he even marched on Moscow, during which his private army shot down several
Russian aircraft.
To make matters worse, the Wagner Group's leader publicly discredited the war in Ukraine.
(Two realities: on the ground now, from now on, the Russian army is retreating towards
Kherson and Zaporizhia.
The AFU is pushing the Russian army.
They are bathing in blood.
No one is handing over the reserves.
There is no control.
The same hysteria where the chief of staff, after a glass of vodka, screams like a woman,
like a pig, demanding to return to the positions by phone.
Yevgeny Prigozhin)
As many of you will recall, in the end, the uprising was halted after an agreement was
brokered by the Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko.
The Wagner Group agreed to end their mutiny in exchange for pardons, the continuation
of their business operations, and a safe haven in Belarus.
And now you see...
Once again, the lesson seems clear: never trust Vladimir Putin.
A man who, shortly after the downing of the plane, couldn't hide his immense satisfaction.
In this image you're seeing on the screen, the Russian president already knew that Wagner's
plane had been shot down.
Tell me he doesn't look pleased.
The plan had worked like a charm.
The purge was virtually complete.
("Putin is 'the apostle of payback' [...] If I were Prigozhin, I wouldn't fire my food
taster".
William Burns, CIA Director)
And it's not just about Wagner.
On that same Wednesday, August 23rd, a few hours before the plane was shot down, Russian
state-owned news agency RIA Novosti confirmed the dismissal of Sergei Surovikin, also known
as General Armageddon.
This general was one of the heavyweights of the Russian armed forces and the head of the
aerospace forces.
The reason?
It's suspected that he had close ties with Prigozhin.
In fact, Surovikin was already arrested following the Wagner uprising.
The question is, was he the missing piece during those days on June 23rd and 24th?
We might never know the answer, but one thing is clear: Putin has made a definitive statement.
And, yes, okay, we all could have guessed that sooner or later the Russian president
would seek revenge...
But why target Prigozhin?
And why do it right now?
What does the Russian president gain from all of this?
What are the potential repercussions of this execution?
Well...
Let's delve into that.
(THE RIGHT TIME)
Dear VisualPolitik community, Wagner had become quite a nuisance for the Russian president.
Putin desperately needed to get them out of the way.
Why?
Well...
First and foremost, the fact that Prigozhin continued to strut around Russia was an absolute
embarrassment for Putin and a clear sign of weakness.
The head of the Wagner group had challenged him, humiliating him in front of all of Russia
and the entire world with his march on Moscow.
And, think about it, no dictator can afford to tolerate such behavior.
If they do, sooner or later, others will pull the same stunt.
But on top of that, things in Russia aren't going particularly well.
Many oligarchs and military officials are deeply dissatisfied with everything that has
transpired from the ill-fated invasion of Ukraine.
In this light, the execution of Prigozhin sends a clear message: Cross the leader and
you'll pay the price.
Moreover, remember that Prigozhin was not just a mercenary; his group operated a myriad
of different businesses.
From a chocolate factory in St. Petersburg and a vodka distillery to gold mines, communication
and disinformation agencies, and oil and gas companies.
In a way, many oligarchs might see themselves in him.
And the act of shooting down the plane may not be coincidental.
This execution wasn't just highly visible, but in itself, it's also a message to Russia's
elite.
Elites who often travel in private planes...
Meaning, the message is clear: if they oppose Putin, they will never again be safe.
However, while these are the reasons, why has Putin chosen to act precisely now?
Was it simply because he had the chance?
Maybe, but there are also some facts that might have hastened this bold decision.
For instance, it might be a coincidence, or it might not be, but the truth is that in
the previous weeks significant changes were occurring within Wagner.
The group seemed to be restructuring.
Hundreds of soldiers were leaving Belarus, presumably to join Wagner's missions in Africa,
a much more lucrative venture.
We're talking about maybe 1,000 or 1,400 troops.
In fact, the last video where we saw Prigozhin himself was precisely in Africa.
(The temperature is 50 degrees.
Everything is as we like it.
Wagner is carrying out reconnaissance and search activities, making Russia even bigger
on all continents and (making) Africa even freer.
Justice and happiness for the African people)
The problem?
Well, if Putin wanted revenge, and remember that he needed to do this no matter what,
Wagner's escape to Africa could complicate his plans.
Additionally, the group could use this venture to strengthen themselves and become an even
more challenging rival.
That's not to mention what it could mean for his public image if Wagner managed to achieve
some military success.
The comparisons would be unflattering.
And in fact, this leads us to the second reason that might explain why he decided to put an
end to this matter once and for all.
And that is...
Look closely at this video.
In the video, you see the Ukrainian flag waving over the disputed enclave of Robotyne.
A position that began to be fought over in June, and that now allows the Ukrainian artillery
to attack Tokmak, the next necessary step in their advance towards Melitopol.
Yes, the Ukrainian counteroffensive has been slower than anticipated.
We'll delve into this shortly here on VisualPolitik, but it's evident that in the days leading
up to the plane's downing, Ukrainian troops finally made some significant advances.
For instance, Ukraine's 47th Mechanized Brigade, with the support of the 82nd Air Assault Brigade,
managed to breach the defensive lines near Robotyne, leading to the fall of this town.
This newfound position now allows the Ukrainian army to launch operations against relatively
weaker defensive lines.
In fact, according to information from the Institute for War, the Russians are trying
to reinforce defensive positions almost 30 km from the current front.
This implies they anticipate the Ukrainian forces might overcome their lines and push
forward.
Naturally, this is a significant concern for Putin... or at least it was.
Prigozhin had taken credit for the capture of Bakhmut and even dared to challenge him.
Any major misstep in Ukraine would have been a significant blow to the Kremlin.
They would be perceived as the losers, whereas the leader of the Wagner Group could claim
a victor's status.
Moreover, by the end of July, the Russian parliament had to pass a new law authorizing
the Kremlin to send hundreds of thousands more men to war.
However, this time, the mobilization process will look quite different.
From now on, the government can send confidential recruitment notices to as many men as deemed
necessary.
The age limit for those eligible for the draft has been extended from 27 to 30, and penalties
for refusing military service have also been heightened.
And, regardless of how confidential or hushed this process might be, it's bound to be unpopular.
Given these circumstances, it's best to keep opposition at bay.
Well, it seems even this diversionary tactic hasn't worked out well for Putin:
(Aug 21, 2023: Russia's first lunar mission in 47 years smashes into the moon in failure.
Reuters)
Russia's first lunar mission in 47 years was a resounding failure.
The Russian spacecraft lost control and ultimately crashed into the moon, whereas shortly after,
India successfully landed its own spacecraft on the lunar surface without a hitch.
("This moment is unforgettable.
It is phenomenal.
This is a victory cry of a new India".
Narendra Modi, India’s Prime Minister)
So, what can we say?
It's highly likely that all these events played a significant role in accelerating Moscow's
plans.
Let's just say that given everything that's been happening, making a bold move and eliminating
Prigozhin seemed increasingly urgent.
And that's precisely what they did.
Now, the last question we need to address is...
Exactly what repercussions might this move have?
What does this execution signify?
Well...
Pay very close, and I mean very close, attention.
(THE CONSEQUENCES)
Dear viewers, we can identify 4 direct consequences from Prigozhin's downfall.
In the short and medium term, it seems clear that Putin comes out strengthened.
He was being challenged, didn't seem to be winning, and then suddenly, bam!
Knocked down.
The Kremlin seems to be sealing its cracks.
On the other hand, the execution, as it has been carried out, will amplify the general
paranoia, and this, too, poses a problem for the Kremlin.
If the information bubble in which Vladimir Putin lives has been evident up to now, this
will likely intensify.
Working with a ruthless autocrat doesn't invite you to take risks.
Quite the opposite.
No one is going to be willing to take responsibility.
If in 2021 and 2022, Putin was convinced that Ukraine would fall in 2 or 3 days, now the
situation might worsen.
For instance, it was already known that people within Putin's inner circle and the Russian
elite are ramping up their security; this may now skyrocket.
No one is safe in Russia anymore.
On another note, Prigozhin's downfall likely signals the end of the Wagner Group.
It's very probable that their businesses will end up being divided among different oligarchs
or directly absorbed by the Russian government.
However, this will mean losing not only a significant military structure but also, most
likely, diminishing Russia's influence in Africa.
And finally, it becomes clear that negotiating with Putin is not fruitful.
Whether we're talking about Prigozhin, Ukraine, or any other matter, the Russian president
rarely keeps his word.
Either way, with the information we have at the time of preparing this video, Putin seems
to emerge stronger.
But be cautious: he still has an ongoing war, increasing discontent among the military,
and a less-than-promising situation at home.
The game has only just begun.
But now, over to you: What do you make of Prigozhin's downfall?
Do you believe this solidifies Putin's position in Russia for the long haul?
What do you think will be the Kremlin's next steps?
Leave your thoughts in the comments and let's open up the discussion.
And now, if you found this video interesting, don't forget to hit the like button and subscribe
to VisualPolitik if you haven't already.
Take care and see you next time.