You know one thing,
the war on Ukraine has shown us
is that sanctions are not just
imposed by major countries.
Major companies are showing that they
will lay some down to their own.
Apple announced earlier this month
that they were stopping the sale
of their products in Russia,
as well as limiting Apple Pay.
They're also disabling certain
live Apple map functions in
Ukraine to protect the citizens.
Their Netflix shutter their
operations in Russia,
which also includes Russian TV news channels.
China based Tik T.O.K has put a
pause on their live streaming.
Functions and new videos.
Because of concerns over Russian
laws that threaten to arrest anyone
spreading what they deem as fake news,
Airbnb has suspended their operations
in Russia while also offering free
housing to cover over 100 Ukraine.
100,000 I should say Ukrainian refugees
and more than 60,000 people have
booked Airbnbs stays in Ukraine just
to help out the homeowners financially.
Shell Oil and Exxon Mobil are also
giving up their interests in Russian.
Oil and gas companies a huge deal since
both companies have big investments
in Russian oilfields and pipelines.
Washington based,
Boeing and European based Airbus.
They're on the same page,
both refusing to deliver spare
parts and provide maintenance,
which gives me mixed feelings and
leads us to the question are sanctions
actually working to persuade Putin
here to talk about the issue and the
very latest on the war in Ukraine is
policy specialist John Koenig. John.
You spent more than three decades?
In the US Foreign Service,
you know what this is?
This situation is happening.
Welcome back to new day.
Look good morning ma'am.
It's good to be here.
So as we were talking about these
sanctions, do you expect these oil
sanctions and this pressure from
American companies to make a dent?
Or is it really just the Russian
people who are going to be hurting?
How do I think the first set
of sanctions that you listed,
the ones by companies?
Also, many of the government sanctions,
especially in the financial sphere,
will have an impact overtime.
And of course they've caught Putin's
attention and probably surprised
him because they're so extensive.
There are other sections that are
more symbolic I think than than real,
and we'll have more of a symbolic effect.
For example, yesterday the ban on imports
of Russian energy to the United States.
Is more symbolic I think than meaningful.
Russia will probably find it
easier to find new alternative
markets for its petroleum than the
United States finds it too.
To find new sources for oil so
it will have a definite impact.
Maybe more impact on American
consumers than it has on Russia.
Interesting thing and we don't really
want to get into green energy right now,
and that whole debate,
but I do want to know,
you know, Western leaders.
They are trying to push in any way they can.
They're trying to push back,
but they are saying no to certain things.
The USN dodo not approving a no
fly zone over Ukraine first of all,
can you explain what a no fly zone is
and why it would be such a dangerous
situation for us to get involved in?
Yeah I know fly zone would simply be
to ban Russian aircraft essentially
from operating over Ukraine,
and that's already happened.
The countries are at war,
so in effect a ban is in place.
Whether it's what's important is enforcement.
Zelinsky and the Ukrainians want NATO
to provide the enforcement for the No
fly zone and enforcement in involves
clashes between NATO and Russia,
which would be violating the No fly zone.
So it would definitely massively
increase the risk of a widening war
and Speaking of which,
how is it looking with escalation?
Is this something that we're going
to see widening in Western Europe?
I don't think so.
I think we're walking a very fine
line in an effort not to escalate.
You saw that overnight the United
States essentially turned down Poland's
offer of Migs to transfer to Ukraine.
That's because this would
be an escalatory step.
It's not that we're not transferring
a lot of weapons to Ukraine.
It's that these kinds of weapons
things like advanced fighter
aircraft have a long logistics
train so that we would be involved.
In those planes being on the
ground there and that would make
us a direct party to the war,
so I think this is a line we can walk.
It'll take patience and discipline
and we need to stand firm.
Patient when you see this
humanitarian crisis unfold,
this humanitarian crisis
that likes of many young
people have never even seen.
Let's talk about that.
What is being done across the world?
But more importantly,
here in the United States,
to to help these people.
I think a lot of people are donating money,
which is probably the most
important thing to do.
In addition to expressing sympathy
and solidarity with the Ukrainians,
I think actually providing the means to
various service providers to help with
the humanitarian crisis is important.
The about 2,000,000 refugees have
already flowed out of Ukraine
and that'll undoubtedly grow that
number and they need to be received
housed when they first arrived,
then moved on.
And this costs a lot of money so.
The UN High Commissioner for Refugees and
other private organizations are doing
all they can and Americans can't contribute,
and I think many of them already have,
so you have all these schemes with like.
Various companies that are helping
people to funnel money to to Ukraine and
to Ukrainians and to help this effort.
What about a possibility
of a peace agreement?
Is there any possibility at this
point and what would that look
like for Ukraine and Russia?
I think there's always a possibility so
we can never take our eye off of that.
We it may not be.
About to happen right away.
There have been some encouraging signs.
I would say in this regard.
First of all, you have mediation efforts
such as the one undertaken by Prime
Minister Neftali Bennett of Israel,
that that's important that that
could actually lead to progress.
It hasn't yet, but it certainly could.
And you also had a very powerful signal.
I think that President Zelensky gave in
an interview with David Muir from ABC
News that Ukraine is prepared to negotiate
on a lot of Russia's extreme demands.
These demands are extreme and
I don't think that they will be
the Nate the final settlement.
Things like seeding parts
of Ukraine's territory,
relinquishing any claim to Crimea,
canceling any effort to join NATO.
These are tough,
but the fact is we need to
encourage these negotiations to go
forward and they are a much better
solution than simply fighting this
out on the ground in Ukraine
and holding our breath into that point.
John, thank you so much for your time.
Hopefully we can check in
with you again next week or.
Sooner than that, thank you.