ALABAMA'S SPECIAL ELECTION TO ELECT A NEW SENATOR ACTUALLY
SHOCKED ME, I THOUGHT ROY MOORE WOULD WIN, HE DID NOT.
IN A
STUNNING DEFEAT WE ACTUALLY HAD DOUG JONES BEAT ROY MOORE, AND
MOORE, NOT TOO PLEASED WITH THE RESULTS.
DID WE GET HIM?
>>ANA, I BELIEVE WE GOT HIM.
>>[LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, WE GOT HIM]
>>DOWN GOES ROY MOORE, DOWN GOES ROY MOORE!
AND FOR THE
FIRST TIME THAT IS SAID IN A POSITIVE CONNOTATION.
>>WHOA.
>>HE HAS NOT CONCEDED YET BUT HE WILL BECAUSE HE'S A LOSER.
WE
WILL BREAK DOWN WHAT HAPPENED, ANA WILL GIVE YOU THE NUMBERS, I
WANT TO TALK ABOUT WHY DOUG JONES WON, BECAUSE I THINK THERE
ARE A COUPLE OF REALLY IMPORTANT LESSONS HERE THAT I THINK
WILL AFFECT VOTING IN OTHER PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AS WELL.
>>FIRST LET ME EXPLAIN HOW THE NIGHT WENT, HOW THE ELECTION
WENT, AND HOW PEOPLE WERE SITTING AT THE EDGE OF THEIR
SEATS BECAUSE AS THE RESULTS WERE COMING IN, MIND YOU, MOST
OF THE EARLIER RESULTS WERE COMING IN FROM MORE RURAL PARTS
OF ALABAMA, AND ROY MOORE HAD A SIGNIFICANT LEAD OVER DOUG
JONES.
AT THAT POINT I DECIDED I WILL STOP PAYING ATTENTION AND
GO TO YOGA AND MEDITATE.
NOW, ONCE YOGA CLASS WAS OVER I WAS
SHOCKED TO SEE HEADLINES THAT INDICATED THAT ROY MOORE DID IN
FACT LOSE AND DOUG JONES WON, AND IT WAS BECAUSE THE LATER
RESULTS WERE COMING IN FROM AREAS OF ALABAMA THAT ARE
PREDOMINANTLY BLACK, AND IF YOU LOOK AT THE DEMOGRAPHICS, BREAK
DOWN THE DEMOGRAPHICS, YOU WILL SEE THAT A WHOPPING 96% OF BLACK
VOTERS VOTED IN FAVOR OF DOUG JONES.
I WANT TO GIVE YOU SOME MORE DETAILS INTO THAT AND OTHER
DEMOGRAPHICS IN A SECOND BUT CENK, THOUGHTS?
>>TWO THINGS ABOUT THAT BEFORE I GET TO AFRICAN AMERICAN
VOTERS, MY MAIN REACTION -- FIRST OF ALL DURING THE VOTING
-- I LOVE IT, YOU SEE IT GO, BUT FIRST DOUG JONES IS LEADING,
THEN ROY MOORE TAKES A BIG LEAD, THAT'S BECAUSE HIS COUNTIES WERE
COUNTED FIRST.
AND AT THE END, THE IMPORTANT COUNTIES THAT WERE
MORE IN FAVOR OF DOUG JONES GET COUNTED, AND HE WINS, AND IT
LOOKED LIKE FOR A WHILE HE ONLY WON BY 9000 VOTES, BY .7 POINTS,
I WENT LIVE ON YOUTUBE AT THAT POINT, BUT AT THE END HE WON BY
1.5 POINTS.
I KNOW ROY MOORE IS ASKING FOR A RECOUNT, BUT YOU
ONLY GET A RECOUNT IF IT'S WITHIN .5, AND BY THE WAY, I
REALLY BELIEVE IN RECOUNTS, I KNOW THEY COST A LITTLE BIT OF
MONEY, BUT HERE YOU DON'T NEED A RECOUNT AND EVEN THE REPUBLICAN
OFFICIALS IN ALABAMA ARE GOING, IT'S NOT GOING TO MAKE ANY
DIFFERENCE AT ALL.
SO MY MAIN REACTION WAS OF TREMENDOUS
RELIEF, IT WASN'T LIKE OH MY GOD, DOUG JONES GOT IN, HE'S
SUCH A WONDERFUL GUY -- JONES IS GREAT IN SOME WAYS, WHICH I WILL
GET TO, IT'S NOT A KNOCK ON HIM --
>>FOR A PROGRESSIVE HE'S NOT AN EXCITING CANDIDATE, IT'S JUST
THAT HE'S A DECENT CANDIDATE WHEN YOU TRY TO PUT HIM UP
AGAINST SOMEONE LIKE ROY MOORE, WHO FOR THE ONE BILLIONTH TIME,
I WANT TO REITERATE, HAS BEEN ACCUSED OF MOLESTING WOMEN WHEN
THEY WERE TEENAGERS.
SO THIS WASN'T SO MUCH ABOUT POLITICS
FOR ME, BUT TRYING TO MAINTAIN SOME HUMAN DECENCY IN THE
COUNTRY, THAT IS WHAT THIS ELECTION REPRESENTED FOR ME
PERSONALLY, BECAUSE AS WE KNOW ALABAMA IS A DEEPLY RED STATE
AND IS NOT LIKE ANY DEMOCRAT WHO DOES MANAGE TO GET ELECTED THERE
IS SOME CRAZY PROGRESSIVE.
NO.
AGAIN, I JUST WANTED THIS
ELECTION TO TURN OUT THE WAY IT DID BECAUSE I WANTED TO BELIEVE
THAT THERE ARE PEOPLE OUT THERE WHO WILL REJECT SOMEONE WHO HAS
BEEN ACCUSED OF MOLESTATION.
>>I HAD A SENSE OF RELIEF NOT JUST FOR ME, IT WASN'T THAT, IT
WAS MORE FOR AMERICA, THAT, HEY, IT TURNS OUT THERE IS A BOTTOM
OF THE BARREL.
I KEEP TALKING ABOUT HOW REPUBLICANS DON'T HAVE
A BOTTOM OF THE BARREL, WE FOUND THE BOTTOM OF THE BARREL.
IT
TURNS OUT IF YOU ARE AGAINST DIFFERENT RELIGIONS, DON'T
BELIEVE IN THE CONSTITUTION, YOU ARE AGAINST BLACK PEOPLE,
AGAINST JEWS -- ALTHOUGH HE DOES HAVE A JEW LAWYER -- THAT'S WHAT
THEY SAID, IT'S ON BELIEVABLE -- AND YOU DO CHILD MOLESTATION,
THEN WE HAVE FOUND THE BOTTOM.
AND MAYBE SOME OF YOU WON'T
BELIEVE THIS, BUT A BREATHE A BIG SIGH OF RELIEF FOR ALABAMA.
I WANT TO BELIEVE IN ALABAMA, I LOOK AT THE ALABAMA REPUBLICAN
VOTER AND I GET DISCOURAGED.
I'VE SEEN THE POLLING ON THEIR
BELIEFS, ETC., ON THE OTHER HAND I LOVE THIS COUNTRY AND I LOVE
THE SOUTH, I WANT ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI AND KENTUCKY AND ALL
THESE DIFFERENT PARTS TO DO THE RIGHT THING BY THEMSELVES.
LIKE,
IT WILL ACTUALLY HELP YOU NOT TO HAVE ROY MOORE.
BUT I'M NOT
UNDER THE ILLUSION THAT DOUG JONES WILL MAKE A POLICY
DIFFERENCE ON THE TAX CUTS, THEY ARE IN A PANIC RIGHT NOW TO PASS
THEM ANYWAY AND THEY WILL, BUT IT WAS MORE OF THINK GOD THERE
IS AT LEAST SOME DECENCY IN THE VOTERS, MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE,
WHICH LEADS ME BACK TO THE AFRICAN AMERICAN VOTE IN THIS
RACE.
THEY VOTED IN A GREATER PERCENTAGE THAN THEIR PERCENTAGE
OF THE POPULATION, MEANING THAT THERE VOTER TURNOUT WAS ABOVE
AVERAGE, ABOVE THEIR REPRESENTATION, AND MADE THE
1.5% DIFFERENCE.
AND WHY?
IT GOES TO MY CENTRAL THESIS, IF
YOU GET PEOPLE EXCITED AND GIVE THEM A REASON TO VOTE, THEY WILL
SHOW UP AND VOTE FOR YOU.
AND VOTER TURNOUT IS THE MOST
IMPORTANT THING.
NOT HOW THE STATE IS BROKEN DOWN, BECAUSE
ALABAMA IS DEEPLY REPUBLICAN IF YOU JUST WENT BASED ON THOSE
PERCENTAGES ROY MOORE WOULD HAVE WON, PUT MORE DEMOCRATS, MORE
AFRICAN AMERICANS, SHOWED UP TO VOTE FOR JONES.
WHY?
EVEN THOUGH
HE'S NOT THE WORLD'S BIGGEST PROGRESSIVE.
PARTLY BECAUSE DOUG
JONES STOOD UP FOR BLACK PEOPLE, HE CONVICTED MEMBERS OF THE KLAN
WHO HAD MURDERED INNOCENT BLACK PEOPLE IN ALABAMA.
HE STOOD UP
FOR THEM, SO THEY STOOD UP FOR HIM.
IT ISN'T THAT COMPLICATED.
YOU ACTUALLY DELIVER FOR THE VOTERS AND THEY DELIVER FOR YOU.
DON'T YELL AT THE VOTERS, DO SOMETHING FOR THEM.
AND IN THIS
CASE DOUG JONES DID SOMETHING WONDERFUL FOR THEM, AND THEY LED
HIM TO VICTORY, THAT'S EXACTLY HOW DEMOCRACY IS SUPPOSED
TO WORK.
>>OBVIOUSLY DOING SOMETHING FOR YOUR VOTERS AND CONSTITUENTS
WILL CONVINCE THEM TO GO TO THE POLLS AND VOTE FOR YOU, BUT I'M
SURE IT ALSO HELPED JONES THAT ROY MOORE WAS OPENLY AGAINST
AMENDMENTS TO THE CONSTITUTION THAT DID AWAY WITH SLAVERY,
THOSE TYPES OF THINGS.
ROY MOORE WAS VERY OPENLY HATEFUL TOWARDS
SPECIFIC GROUPS OF PEOPLE, SPECIFICALLY BLACK PEOPLE.
I
DON'T THINK THAT WAS THE PRIMARY REASON THEY WENT TO THE POLLS, I
THINK THEY DID WANT TO GO SUPPORT DOUG JONES CONSIDERING
HIS PAST AND WHAT HE ACCOMPLISHED, BUT I ALSO WANT TO
DRAW SOME ATTENTION TO OTHER TRENDS WE SAW IN THIS ELECTION
THAT HELPED PUT JONES OVER THE TOP, BECAUSE A 1.5 MARGIN ISN'T
THAT BIG, RIGHT?
SO THE BLACK VOTE ABSOLUTELY MATTERED, BUT
YOU KNOW WHAT ELSE ALSO MATTERED?
THE REPUBLICAN WOMEN
WHO DECIDED, NO, I'M STAYING HOME.
AND ALSO THE REPUBLICAN
WOMEN WHO FLIPPED AND DECIDED TO VOTE FOR DOUG JONES.
WE WILL GET
TO THOSE NUMBERS IN A SECOND, OVERALL TURNOUT WAS 40.4%, WHICH
SOUNDS LOW, BUT IT WAS A SPECIAL ELECTION, USUALLY SPECIAL
ELECTIONS, AND MIDTERM ELECTIONS, DON'T DRAW MANY
VOTERS, SO THAT'S SIGNIFICANT --
>>THE PEOPLE WHO IDENTIFY AS REPUBLICANS, WOULD PREFER TO
HAVE A REPUBLICAN SENATOR IN THAT SEAT, DECIDED WE CAN'T HAVE
ROY MOORE SO THEY DECIDED TO VOTE AGAINST HIM.
>>BEFORE YOU GET TOO ENCOURAGED ABOUT ALABAMA REPUBLICANS,
UNDERSTAND THAT 91% OF THEM HELD, THEY DIDN'T MIND THE
MOLESTATION AND ALL THAT STUFF.
BUT ALL OF THAT ATTENTION PAID
TO THAT ISSUE AMONG OTHERS, ALL OF HIS OTHER ISSUES AND
PROBLEMS, ETC., IT STRIPPED AWAY 9%, 6% OF WHICH WENT TO DOUG
JONES, AND THAT'S YOUR 1.5% DIFFERENCE.
SO IT MADE A
DIFFERENCE, THAT'S WHY FIGHTING BACK AND DOING AGGRESSIVE
CAMPAIGNING MAKES A GIANT DIFFERENCE.
A LOT OF TIMES
DEMOCRATS PLAY PATTYCAKE, THEY SAY CIVILITY IS MORE IMPORTANT.
NO, MAKING SURE THE OTHER GUY LOSES IS MORE IMPORTANT.
AND
THEY DID A GREAT JOB OF THAT HERE, CREDIT WHERE IT'S DUE.
>>LET'S GO THROUGH SOME OTHER POLL RESULTS I FOUND
FASCINATING, LET'S LOOK AT GENDER.
IF YOU LOOK AT THE MALE
VOTERS, WHICH ACCOUNTED FOR 49% OF THE VOTERS IN THE ELECTION,
42% OF THEM SUPPORTED JONES, 56% OF THEM SUPPORTED ROY MOORE.
SO
WHEN IT CAME TO MALE VOTERS THE MAJORITY OF THEM FAVORED MOORE,
BUT IT FLIPPED WHEN IT CAME TO WOMEN. 57% OF FEMALE VOTERS
SUPPORTED JONES, 41 SUPPORTED MOORE.
>>51% OF THE VOTERS WERE WOMEN, THEY SHOWED UP TO VOTE, IT MADE
ALL THE DIFFERENCE.
>>LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT RACE, MEN AND WOMEN, WHITE MEN, 26% OF
THEM VOTED FOR JONES, 72% VOTED FOR MOORE.
WHITE WOMEN, 34% WERE
IN FAVOR OF JONES, WHILE 63% WERE IN FAVOR OF MOORE.
THE
FOCUS ON WHITE WOMEN, I WANT TO KIND OF ELABORATE ON THAT IN A
SECOND, BUT WHEN YOU COMPARE THE WHITE VOTE TO THE BLACK VOTE YOU
SEE A WORLD OF DIFFERENCE.
WITH BLACK MEN, 93% WERE SUPPORTIVE
OF JONES, WITH BLACK WOMEN, 98% WERE SUPPORTIVE OF JONES.
OVERWHELMINGLY THE BLACK VOTE WENT IN FAVOR OF DOUG JONES.
LET'S TALK ABOUT WHITE REPUBLICAN WOMEN IN THE STATE OF
ALABAMA, I THOUGHT THIS WAS ACTUALLY PRETTY INTERESTING --
>>SO WHILE THE PERCENTAGE
THAT I SHOWED YOU IS STILL
DISHEARTENING, 63% IS PRETTY HIGH, YOU DO SEE REPUBLICAN
WOMEN NOW KIND OF REALIZING THERE IS SOMETHING GOING ON
WITH THE REPUBLICAN PARTY THEY DON'T LIKE.
MORE OF THEM VOTED IN FAVOR OF JONES COMPARED TO THE
PERCENTAGE OF THEM WHO VOTED FOR BARACK OBAMA.
>>AGAIN AS WE ARE ENCOURAGED ON A DAY LIKE THIS, STILL AN
OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF THE WHITE FOLKS IN ALABAMA VOTED FOR
MOORE.
WITH ALL THE THINGS WE HAVE DISCUSSED THAT WERE HIS
PROBLEMS THEY STILL VOTED FOR HIM IN BIG NUMBERS, BUT THAT
NUMBER GOING FROM 16% OF WHITE WOMEN VOTING FOR THE DEMOCRATIC
CANDIDATE TO NOW 34%, THAT IS MORE THAN DOUBLED, THAT THE
GIANT DIFFERENCE AND DEFINITELY ANOTHER THING THAT SWUNG THIS
ELECTION.
IF YOU HAD NOT REACHED WHITE WOMEN WHO NORMALLY VOTE
REPUBLICAN, YOU WOULDN'T HAVE WON.
BY THE WAY, THAT GOES TO MY
THESIS NUMBER TWO, ANA, HOW MANY TIMES DO I SAY ON THE SHOW, AT
SOME POINT TRUMP AND THESE REPUBLICANS WILL LOSE THAT
MOM IN KANSAS.
>>YOU DID SAY THAT, BUT I DON'T WANT TO GET TOO ENCOURAGED BY
WHAT JUST HAPPENED BECAUSE I DO SEE THIS SPECIAL ELECTION IS A
BIT OF AN ANOMALY, AND WHAT I MEAN BY THAT IS, WHO KNOWS,
THERE MIGHT BE JUST A PLETHORA OF REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES ACCUSED
OF SIMILAR THINGS, I DON'T THINK SO, BUT THIS WAS A VERY UNIQUE
ELECTION WHERE YOU HAD THIS GUY WHO WAS BANNED FROM MALLS IN
ALABAMA FOR CHASING AFTER TEENAGE GIRLS, WHO WAS ACCUSED
OF MOLESTING MULTIPLE TEENAGERS, I THINK THAT IS WHAT
TURNED THEM OFF, NOT NECESSARILY HIS POLICIES.
>>I JUST READ A POLL THAT TRUMP'S APPROVAL RATING AMONG
WHITE WOMEN HAS DROPPED BY FIVE POINTS, THAT'S A BIG DROP IN A
SHORT OF TIME, SO HE IS LOSING THEM ON A NATIONAL LEVEL, IT
ISN'T JUST ROY MOORE.
ON THE OTHER HAND -- I AGREE WITH YOU
THAT ALL THE PEOPLE WHO ARE SAYING THESE RESULTS ARE
SHOCKING, UNBELIEVABLE, MIRACULOUS -- IT'S NOT
MIRACULOUS, IT WAS CLOSE TO 50-50 ON ELECTION NIGHT BECAUSE
OF THE ANOMALY THAT ROY MOORE IS A PARTICULARLY MONSTROUS
CANDIDATE.
IT WASN'T LIKE A NORMAL ELECTION IN ALABAMA WHERE
A DEMOCRAT BEAT A REPUBLICAN.
>>YES.
SO, I WOULD LIKE TO JUST QUICKLY FOCUS A LITTLE BIT ON
THE VOTERS BASED ON THEIR EDUCATION LEVEL AND WHERE THEY
WERE LIKELY TO FALL BASED ON HOW EDUCATED THEY WERE.
ALSO VERY
INTERESTING HERE.
WHEN YOU LOOK SPECIFICALLY AT COLLEGE
GRADUATES, WHICH ACCOUNTED FOR 44% OF THE VOTERS, 54% OF THESE
INDIVIDUALS VOTED IN FAVOR OF DOUG JONES, 43% VOTED IN FAVOR
OF MOORE.
WHEN IT CAME TO NON-COLLEGE GRADUATES THE
NUMBERS WERE A LITTLE DIFFERENT, 47% IN FAVOR OF DOUG JONES, 52%
IN FAVOR OF ROY MOORE.
SO THE MORE EDUCATED, AT LEAST FORMALLY
EDUCATED, THE VOTERS WERE, THE MORE LIKELY THEY WERE TO VOTE IN
FAVOR OF DOUG JONES.
LET'S LOOK AT EDUCATION BY RACE AND GENDER.
WHEN IT CAME TO WHITE COLLEGE GRADUATE WOMEN, 45% VOTED FOR
JONES, 52% VOTED FOR MOORE.
SO THE MORE EDUCATED WHITE WOMEN
WERE IN THE STATE, THE MORE LIKELY THEY WERE TO VOTE IN
FAVOR OF ROY MOORE, WHICH IS FASCINATING.
WHEN IT CAME TO
WHITE NONCOLLEGE GRADUATE WOMEN, 25% VOTED FOR JONES, 73% FOR
MOORE.
WITH WHITE MEN, IF THEY WERE COLLEGE EDUCATED, 35% VOTED
FOR JONES, 62 FOR MOORE, NONCOLLEGE GRADUATE MEN, 19% FOR
JONES, 79% FOR MOORE.
>>WE WILL TALK ABOUT TRUMP'S REACTION IN A SECOND, BUT ONE
LAST GROUP HERE -- THERE WAS ONE OTHER GROUP THAT MADE A
DIFFERENCE IN THIS ELECTION AND IT WAS YOUNG VOTERS.
>>[STARS AND STRIPES FOREVER]
>>WHAT DID I TELL YOU?
WHENEVER I GET DOWN ABOUT WHAT IS
HAPPENING IN THE COUNTRY, REMEMBER THE HOMIES.
I REMEMBER
THE PEOPLE WHO GREW UP IN MY DEMOGRAPHIC AGE, WHO ARE THE
CORD CUTTERS, WHO WANT TO INVESTIGATE THINGS, WHO ARE
SUSPECT OF ANYTHING THEY ARE TOLD, THEY ARE PAYING ATTENTION
AND THEY ARE DIFFERENT, EVEN IF THEY IDENTIFY AS
EVANGELICALS THEY ARE DIFFERENT FROM THE GENERATION BEFORE
THEM AND THAT GIVES ME HOPE.
HAD.
>>IN THIS ELECTION IN THE DEEP RED STATE OF ALABAMA, 13% OF THE
VOTERS WERE 18 TO 29, A THIRD OF THE VOTERS ARE UNDER 35, AND HOW
DID THEY VOTE?
AS YOU SEE THERE, 60% OF 18 TO 29-YEAR-OLDS VOTED
FOR JONES.
IN ESSENCE, A LITTLE OVER 62% OF PEOPLE UNDER 45 IN
ALABAMA VOTED FOR THE DEMOCRAT.
BUT HE REPEAT THAT -- IN THE
REDDEST STATE IN THE COUNTRY, PEOPLE UNDER THE AGE OF 45 VOTED
60% IN FAVOR OF THE DEMOCRAT.
>>[STARS AND STRIPES FOREVER]
>>AND EVERY YEAR THIS GETS WORSE FOR THE REPUBLICANS.
WHEN
YOU HAVE LOST SOME OF THE REPUBLICAN WOMEN USED TO COUNT
ON AND YOU ARE REELING, WHEN YOU GET HIGH DEMOCRATIC TURNOUT WHEN
THEY GET EXCITED ABOUT VOTING FOR SOMEONE, USUALLY
PROGRESSIVES, THE REPUBLICANS ARE IN BIG TROUBLE.
BUT NOW THAT
EVERY DAY THERE ARE MORE YOUNGER PEOPLE WHO ARE PROGRESSIVES,
SIGNIFICANTLY SO, EVEN 60% IN ALABAMA, HERE IS WHAT I HAVE TO
SAY TO THE REPUBLICAN PARTY VERY SOON.
LET'S GO TO A WIDE SHOT.
ANA?
>>BYE-BYE!
>>YOU GUYS ARE TOAST.
WE HAVE THE YOUNGER GENERATION IN
ALABAMA.
WE HAVE THEM IN ALABAMA.
WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO
DO?
GO, RUN, SEE IF YOU CAN FIND MORE 68-YEAR-OLDS, 78-YEAR-OLDS,
88-YEAR-OLDS.
YES, FOR PEOPLE ABOVE 65 IN ALABAMA, THEY VOTED
60% FOR ROY MOORE.
HAVE AT IT, HOSS.
THE OLD AGING WHITE
CHRISTIAN EVANGELICAL MALE VOTE IN THE SOUTH IS ALL YOU HAVE
LEFT.
IN A POLL TODAY DONALD TRUMP IS DOWN TO 32%.
>>[STARS AND STRIPES FOREVER]
>>YOU ARE IN MORE TROUBLE THAN YOU KNOW WHAT TO DO WITH, YOU
HAVE NO IDEA WHAT TROUBLE YOU ARE IN IF YOU ARE A REPUBLICAN